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Author Topic: UK Local Elections : May 1st 2008  (Read 14856 times)
Harry Hayfield
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« on: March 12, 2008, 10:32:08 am »
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Councils up for election: 165 (36 mets, 19 unitaries, 88 non mets, 22 Welsh)

Councillors elected last time:

Conservatives 2,897
Labour 2,778
Liberal Democrats 1,855
Independents 646
Plaid Cymru 174
Ratepayers 50
Greens 40
British National Party 33
Liberal 25
United Kingdom Independence Party 2
Others 51

Councils Won:

Conservatives 56
Labour 29
Liberal Democrats 11
Independents 3
Plaid Cymru 1
No Overall Control 65
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« Reply #1 on: March 12, 2008, 12:42:55 pm »
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Will the vote share reflect current polls or fluctuate for the election?
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« Reply #2 on: March 12, 2008, 12:48:07 pm »
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Will the vote share reflect current polls or fluctuate for the election?

Labour routinely performs worse in council elections than in national polls, and the Lib Dems perform routinely better. They've been pretty much tied for second (at around 27%) for last few local elections. Of course, that tends to translate into more Labour seats as there are huge numbers of rural council seats that Labour doesn't even run candidates in.

My guess is Labour -250, Lib Dems +50, Conservatives +200.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #3 on: March 12, 2008, 12:58:14 pm »
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The best way of gauging support for the locals is to look at the national vote share over the last few sets of locals

2004: Con 38% Lib Dems 29% Lab 26%
2000: Con 38% Lab 30% Lib Dems 26%
1996: Lab 43% Con 29% Lib Dems 24%
1992: Con 46% Lab 30% Lib Dems 20%
1988: Con 39% Lab 38% Lib Dems 18%
1984: Con 38% Lab 37% Alliance 21%
1980: Lab 42% Con 40% Alliance 13%

Can I just point out something of interest following the news that Bob Spink MP has been removed / resigned the Con whip? The current state of the House is:

Lab 353 MP's
Con 192 MP's
Lib Dems 63 MP's
Ind 7 MP's
SNP 6 MP's
Plaid 3 MP's
NI Others 18
Speaker and Deputies 4

I am not sure of the maths (because of the SDP back in the 80's but is 7 Independent MP's a record? If you are wondering the seven are: Galloway (was Respect), Short (was Lab), Davies (hold Blaenau Gwent), Spink (was Con), Pelling (was Con), Conway (was Con), Taylor (Kidderminster)
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« Reply #4 on: March 12, 2008, 01:00:44 pm »
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What about Bob Wareing?
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« Reply #5 on: March 12, 2008, 01:03:36 pm »
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First question I have about Labour support, how does it effect the problems they're having in Scotland and Wales?
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« Reply #6 on: March 12, 2008, 02:46:29 pm »
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Numbers of councillers overall isn't really that important and the national vote share numbers are just a joke (I go over this every year as you know...) for a very, very long list of reasons. And, actually, even the control lists are a bit silly; "NOC" councils are usually anything but.

I'm actually half-tempted to act the evil fascist moderator on the issue of "national" shares of the vote, but probably won't.

As to the elections themselves, there are some very interesting contests this year though; London and Liverpool both look like being "fun".

What about Bob Wareing?

He's still taking the Labour whip. Someone must have given him a bottle of whisky or eight.
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« Reply #7 on: March 24, 2008, 06:44:40 pm »
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The current state of the House is:

Lab 353 MP's
Con 192 MP's
Lib Dems 63 MP's
Ind 7 MP's
SNP 6 MP's
Plaid 3 MP's
NI Others 18
Speaker and Deputies 4

I am not sure of the maths (because of the SDP back in the 80's but is 7 Independent MP's a record? If you are wondering the seven are: Galloway (was Respect), Short (was Lab), Davies (hold Blaenau Gwent), Spink (was Con), Pelling (was Con), Conway (was Con), Taylor (Kidderminster)
From 29th November 1994 to 24th April 1995, 8 Conservatives had the whip withdrawn and another resigned it, the so-called Maastricht rebels. Interestingly, I think that the SDP transfers never went through Independent status, though I could be wrong. Probably the best time before that was when the Liberal Party was doing its splinter thing in the 1930s.
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« Reply #8 on: March 24, 2008, 06:55:36 pm »
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Back in the '40's and '50's the PLP was very tightly whipped and M.P's had the whip withdrawn all the time; hell even expulsions were quite common.

Btw, the Labour Independent group (basically a bunch of fellow travellers kicked out of Labour for... well... being fellow travellers) had five members in the late '40's and in the previous election quite a few independent and minor party M.P's had been elected.
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« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2008, 01:12:57 pm »
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Not that anyone cares but..

South Tyneside Council (Labour Supermajority)

In my council ward (Fellgate (good) and Hedworth (yuk)), the Leader of Council, Paul Waggott, will probably lose his seat.

In the previous 2 cycles, both labour councillors have been booted and replaced with independents, funnily enough, the LDs don't run candidates here, which is a shame, as they could possibly pick up a few seats, the tories perform terribly badly here. It's amazing the 'newsletters' they are starting to get really nasty (for a local seat) - tit for tat stuff.

This won't change the look of the council as Labour will still maintain a large lead.

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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #10 on: March 25, 2008, 04:40:07 pm »
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Not that anyone cares but..

South Tyneside Council (Labour Supermajority)

In my council ward (Fellgate (good) and Hedworth (yuk)), the Leader of Council, Paul Waggott, will probably lose his seat.

In the previous 2 cycles, both labour councillors have been booted and replaced with independents, funnily enough, the LDs don't run candidates here, which is a shame, as they could possibly pick up a few seats, the tories perform terribly badly here. It's amazing the 'newsletters' they are starting to get really nasty (for a local seat) - tit for tat stuff. This won't change the look of the council as Labour will still maintain a large lead.

South Tyneside 2007: Lab 35 Ind 13 Lib Dem 3 Con 3
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #11 on: March 29, 2008, 03:35:34 pm »
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Harry Hayfield has been selected as the Welsh Liberal Democrat candidate for the Henfynyw Community Council Elections to be held on May 1st 2008 as part of a strong Welsh Liberal Democrat contingent for the local elections. Following his selection, Mr. Hayfield remarked "I shall endeavour to put as much effort into the campaign as is physically possible and hope to become a member of the local council".

Henfynwy Community Council was formally established in 1973 following the dismantling of the urban and rural district system of local government and currently elects 9 councillors. At the last elections in 20004, the nine sitting councillors were re-elected although Mr. Hayfield did force the council to be subject to democratic means (as the council had been elected unopposed since it's formation).

The council that Mr. Hayfield has been selected to contest is called Henfynwy (which translates as "Old Mother") and in 2004 had an electorate of just under 500 people. It is a predominately rural ward and as such Mr. Hayfield's campaign will focus on the following issues:

A letter of introduction to the local newspapers (name, address, e-mail) asking the electorate to tell him what they would like to talk about.

Attend a meeting with the local police force and highway safety department to ask what is being done about speeding.

In an effort to make sure that everyone realises that health is important, hold dicussions with the local sports group and ask if they would be open to the idea of reduced entrance fees to those residents on low incomes / welfare payments.

This part of Wales has a lot of history connected to overseas nations. I would endeavour to sit on the culture committee and plan a series of festivals across the area celebrating this connection and even ask delegates from these areas to visit here (and vice versa).

Mr. Hayfield will shortly establish an online campaign website via Facebook and YAHOO 360 and invites all people interested in his campaign to register for updates.

Result 2004 : If emboldene, candidate elected
Arthur John Moelfryn MASKELL, NPI      294   107.42%
Thomas Gerallt DAVIES, NPI      274   100.12%
Margaret Leah Jocelyn ANDREW, NPI      273   99.75%
Carys Lloyd LEWIS, NPI      272   99.39%
Euryd Rhys JONES, NPI      263   96.10%
Barrie Granville OWEN, NPI      243   88.79%
Margaret Davina EVANS, NPI      236   86.23%
Evan Idris Wyn EVANS, NPI      231   84.40%
Dewi Wyn JONES, NPI      221   80.75%

Peter James Harry Jones HAYFIELD, LDm      156   57.00%
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« Reply #12 on: March 29, 2008, 05:55:13 pm »

Congratulations and the best of luck to you!
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« Reply #13 on: March 29, 2008, 11:15:47 pm »
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Result 2004 : If emboldened, candidate elected
Arthur John Moelfryn MASKELL, NPI      294   107.42%
Thomas Gerallt DAVIES, NPI      274   100.12%
Margaret Leah Jocelyn ANDREW, NPI      273   99.75%
Carys Lloyd LEWIS, NPI      272   99.39%
Euryd Rhys JONES, NPI      263   96.10%
Barrie Granville OWEN, NPI      243   88.79%
Margaret Davina EVANS, NPI      236   86.23%
Evan Idris Wyn EVANS, NPI      231   84.40%
Dewi Wyn JONES, NPI      221   80.75%

Peter James Harry Jones HAYFIELD, LDm      156   57.00%

What is a faction of the Canadian NDP doing in being involved in UK local elections?
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Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #14 on: March 30, 2008, 03:02:57 am »
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Result 2004 : If emboldened, candidate elected
Arthur John Moelfryn MASKELL, NPI      294   107.42%
Thomas Gerallt DAVIES, NPI      274   100.12%
Margaret Leah Jocelyn ANDREW, NPI      273   99.75%
Carys Lloyd LEWIS, NPI      272   99.39%
Euryd Rhys JONES, NPI      263   96.10%
Barrie Granville OWEN, NPI      243   88.79%
Margaret Davina EVANS, NPI      236   86.23%
Evan Idris Wyn EVANS, NPI      231   84.40%
Dewi Wyn JONES, NPI      221   80.75%

Peter James Harry Jones HAYFIELD, LDm      156   57.00%

What is a faction of the Canadian NDP doing in being involved in UK local elections?

Because in the UK (especially Wales), NPI stands for Non Party Independent (the classfication I have had to come up with for candidates who stand as Name (No Party).
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« Reply #15 on: March 30, 2008, 05:09:37 am »
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Best of luck Harry Smiley
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« Reply #16 on: March 30, 2008, 07:10:02 pm »
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Because in the UK (especially Wales), NPI stands for Non Party Independent (the classfication I have had to come up with for candidates who stand as Name (No Party).

As opposed to what, Party Independent?  Being Independent (Ind) pretty much precludes being part of a party, or at least it does in plain English.
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My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
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« Reply #17 on: March 30, 2008, 07:23:49 pm »
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Because in the UK (especially Wales), NPI stands for Non Party Independent (the classfication I have had to come up with for candidates who stand as Name (No Party).

As opposed to what, Party Independent?  Being Independent (Ind) pretty much precludes being part of a party, or at least it does in plain English.

Most Independents have the word "Independent" next to their name on the ballot paper, as if it were a party name.
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« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2008, 03:46:16 pm »
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Peter James Harry Jones. I never knew that. Good luck!
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« Reply #19 on: March 31, 2008, 03:59:32 pm »
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Harry, is there a Labour candidate running?
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« Reply #20 on: March 31, 2008, 04:16:00 pm »
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All the best btw Smiley
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #21 on: March 31, 2008, 05:21:19 pm »
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Harry, is there a Labour candidate running?

Despite Labour's recent strength in Ceredigion (they came second in 1997), there is only 1 Labour councillor in Ceredigion (elected in Lampeter which is a two member ward). There have been suggestions of 7 Labour candidates for these locals (and as soon as the nominations are announced will let everyone know)
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #22 on: March 31, 2008, 05:22:46 pm »
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Peter James Harry Jones. I never knew that. Good luck!

That's right. Peter (can't remember why) James (all the men in my family are James) Harry (I was "The Third Man") Jones (my father's name)
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #23 on: April 04, 2008, 06:33:20 pm »
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Ciliau Aeron Nominations for Local Elections 2008
HAYFIELD Peter James Harry Jones (commonly known as Harry) Welsh Liberal Democrats / Democratiad Rhyddfrydol Cymru
MASKELL Arthur John Moelfryn Plaid Cymru - The Party of Wales
SHELDON Iain James Independent
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« Reply #24 on: April 04, 2008, 06:49:50 pm »
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Deadline for candidates is now past. Not all councils have candidate details up on their sites, but Gwynedd does so...

Councillors not seeking re-election

R.Evans, Lab, Y Felinheli
A.Jones, PC, Diffwys and Maenofferen
W.Meredith, LD, Dolgellau South
M.Owen, PC, Groeslon
J.Roscoe, LD, Hirael
K.Thomas, LD, Menai (Bangor)

To this should be added those councillors who retired or died over the past four years, the most recent of which (and the only one to not trigger a by-election) was Ernest Williams (Labour, Bowydd and Rhiw).

Councillors elected in 2004 who are candidates for a different party

E.T.Dogan, Dewi, was Lab now PC
S.Glyn, Tudweiliog, was PC now LG
E.H.Griffiths, Botwnnog, was Ind now LG
R.M.Jones, Menai (Caernarfon), was PC now Ind
I.Roberts, Porthmadog East, was Ind now PC
O.Williams, Clynnog, was Ind now LG

LG is Llais Gwynedd

Candidates elected unopposed

R.A.Price, Ind, Bryncrug-Llanfihangel
D.L.Siencyn, Plaid, Dolgellau North
E.Edwards, Plaid, Llandderfel
D.Edwards, Plaid, Bala
T.Roberts, Labour, Barmouth
E.M.Jones, Plaid, Llanbedr
E.C.Roberts, Plaid, Harlech
L.A.Jones, Plaid, Teigl
S.Glyn, Llais Gwynedd, Tudweiliog
W.P.Jones, Plaid, Llanbedrog
G.O.Williams, Ind, Waunfawr
T.O.Edwards, Ind, Llanberis
S.Gwenllian, Plaid, Y Felinheli
H.P.Hughes, Plaid, Bethel
P.G.Larsen, Plaid, Penisarwaun
J.W.Williams, Plaid, Pentir
B.Jones, Labour, Cwm-y-Glo
A.Williams, Plaid, Ogwen

This list is way shorter than is normal. Wards usually on this list but which aren't this time include Bontnewydd (Dafydd Iwan's ward) and Abererch (Richard Parry Hughes, the leader of the council, ward). Rumour is that both are at serious risk of falling to Llais Gwynedd.

Anyways, both Labour and the LibDems are now down a seat each from last time as there is no Labour candidate in the open seat of Y Felinheli and no LibDem candidate in the open seat of Dolgellau South. But the big news is the success of Llais Gwynedd in recruiting candidates.
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
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