UK Local Elections : May 1st 2008

[Verily]

Will the vote share reflect current polls or fluctuate for the election?

Labour routinely performs worse in council elections than in national polls, and the Lib Dems perform routinely better. They've been pretty much tied for second (at around 27%) for last few local elections. Of course, that tends to translate into more Labour seats as there are huge numbers of rural council seats that Labour doesn't even run candidates in.

My guess is Labour -250, Lib Dems +50, Conservatives +200.

[Verily]

What about Bob Wareing?

[Verily]

Does "Independents" include Llais Gwynedd, People's Voice, and the various other local parties?

[Verily]

I'd expect it to be towards the lower end, overall, this year, seeing as the areas up for election are mostly in regions with relatively low turnouts in general elections.