UK Local Elections : May 1st 2008

[Peter]

The current state of the House is:

Lab 353 MP's
Con 192 MP's
Lib Dems 63 MP's
Ind 7 MP's
SNP 6 MP's
Plaid 3 MP's
NI Others 18
Speaker and Deputies 4

I am not sure of the maths (because of the SDP back in the 80's but is 7 Independent MP's a record? If you are wondering the seven are: Galloway (was Respect), Short (was Lab), Davies (hold Blaenau Gwent), Spink (was Con), Pelling (was Con), Conway (was Con), Taylor (Kidderminster)

From 29th November 1994 to 24th April 1995, 8 Conservatives had the whip withdrawn and another resigned it, the so-called Maastricht rebels. Interestingly, I think that the SDP transfers never went through Independent status, though I could be wrong. Probably the best time before that was when the Liberal Party was doing its splinter thing in the 1930s.

[Peter]

Oxford, 2008

Map of 2008 incumbents (click to enlarge)


There has been a lot of defections/by-elections for the Class of 2004 - 2 councillors went LD -> Tory, another went LD -> Labour. One LD councillor passed away to be replaced by a Labour councillor. Labour successfully defended two more by-elections, and the Greens another also.

Map of 2006 results (click to enlarge)


(Map of Ward names for reference)

After the 2006 elections, the Council stood as follows:
Lib Dem - 19 (formed a minority administration)
Labour - 17
Green - 8
IWCA - 4
Source

Today it stands as:
Lib Dem - 15 (nominally the minority administration)
Labour - 19
Green - 8
IWCA - 4
Conservative - 2

Labour needs 24 seats to have exactly half of the council; I think that 5 seats is too much of an ask for Labour, though I think it is now inevitable they will end up as the Minority administration once again.

Predictions
Barton and Sandhills - LD inc.; Likely LD (v. Lab)
Blackbird Leys - IWCA inc.; Likely IWCA (v. Lab)
Carfax - Conservative inc.; Tossup LD/Green [Student ward - Conservative is a LD defector]
Churchill - IWCA inc.; Leans Labour (v. IWCA)
Cowley - Labour inc.; Leans Labour (v. LD)
Cowley Marsh - Labour incumbent; Likely Labour (v. LD)
Headington - Open LD; Strong LD
Headington Hill and Northway - Open Labour; Leans LD (v. Con/Lab)
Hinksey Park - Labour inc.; Strong Labour
Holywell - Open Green; Tossup LD/Green
Iffley Fields - Green inc.; Likely Green (v. Labour)
Jericho and Osney - Labour inc.; Strong Labour
Littlemore - Labour inc.; Strong Labour
Lye Valley - Labour inc.; Leans Labour (v. LD)
Marston - LD inc.; Tossup Lab/LD [Condependent candidate makes this unpredictable]
North - LD inc.; Strong LD
Northfield Brook - IWCA inc.; Tossup Lab/IWCA
Quarry and Risinghurst - Conservative inc.; Tossup Lab/LD [Estate ward - Tory is a LD defector]
Rose Hill and Iffley - Labour inc.; Strong Labour
St Clement's - Green inc.; Strong Green
St Margaret's - LD inc.; Strong LD
St Mary's - Open Green; Strong Green
Summertown - Open LD; Likely LD (v. Green)
Wolvercote - Open LD; Strong LD.