Strategic Vision: Clinton +20 in PA

[© Tweed the Younger]

Strategic Vision: Clinton Up in Pennsylvania
Political Wire got an advance look at a new Strategic Vision poll in Pennsylvania which shows Sen. Hillary Clinton holding a big lead over Sen. Barack Obama, 56% to 36%.

In a general election match up with Sen. John McCain, McCain leads Clinton, 48% to 42%, and tops Obama, 47% to 44%.

The full survey will be released tomorrow.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

...shows Sen. Hillary Clinton holding a big lead over Sen. Barack Obama, 56% to 36%.

In a general election match up with Sen. John McCain, McCain leads Clinton, 48% to 42%, and tops Obama, 47% to 44%.

Uh.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

So ugly.... and yet Obama does better in the general election. lol @ dumb Democrats.

[Keystone Phil]

Get to 60%, Hillary!

[Reaganfan]

GO HILL!!

[ottermax]

Is Pennsylvania a closed primary? It better be...

[Keystone Phil]

Is Pennsylvania a closed primary? It better be...

Yep

[Lief]

Obama can't win Pennsylvania. It's just one of the states that Clinton is favored in. He should downplay it and focus chiefly on winning Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later.

[Keystone Phil]

Obama can't win Pennsylvania. It's just one of the states that Clinton is favored in. He should downplay it and focus chiefly on winning Indiana and North Carolina two weeks later.

You can't downplay a big state which will be the focus of the country for six weeks.

[Lief]

If Clinton can do it for 11 states in a row offering many more delegates than Pennsylvania, I'm sure Obama can.

[Keystone Phil]

If Clinton can do it for 11 states in a row offering many more delegates than Pennsylvania, I'm sure Obama can.

Again, this is six weeks of focusing on just one state and a big state, at that. It's hard to ignore.

[Prez Duke]

If Clinton can do it for 11 states in a row offering many more delegates than Pennsylvania, I'm sure Obama can.

Again, this is six weeks of focusing on just one state and a big state, at that. It's hard to ignore.

Yes, it's much different than winning caucuses and little states with high black populations in which you automatically win 90% of the demographic. It is like trying to ignore Texas and Ohio because it looks like they'll lose. And Clinton didn't ignore them, losing those 11 straight hurt her. It was beginning to look like she was going to lose Ohio and Texas.

I hope she breaks 60% in Pennsylvania. I know she will in West Virginia and Kentucky.

[Smash255]

If Clinton can do it for 11 states in a row offering many more delegates than Pennsylvania, I'm sure Obama can.

Again, this is six weeks of focusing on just one state and a big state, at that. It's hard to ignore.

Yes, it's much different than winning caucuses and little states with high black populations in which you automatically win 90% of the demographic. It is like trying to ignore Texas and Ohio because it looks like they'll lose. And Clinton didn't ignore them, losing those 11 straight hurt her. It was beginning to look like she was going to lose Ohio and Texas.

I hope she breaks 60% in Pennsylvania. I know she will in West Virginia and Kentucky.

60% isn't going to happen, he would need to get at least 70% of the white vote (including Asians & Hispanics) to achieve that and likely in the 72-73% range.   With suburban Philly in the mix no way can she get that amount of the white vote.  Central & western PA?  Very possible.  Northeast PA?  maybe.  The state as a whole once you take suburban Philly into the mix?  No.

[Prez Duke]

True. Obama is always over polled, though. He could do worse than 36%!

[Lief]

True. Obama is always over polled, though. He could do worse than 36%!

That's an untrue statement, but whatever. Believe whatever you need to.

[Smash255]

True. Obama is always over polled, though. He could do worse than 36%!

Lets at least be somewhat reasonable here.   Clinton will no doubt win the white vote and by a large margin, but  she would need to win it by more than she did in Mississippi, something along the lines of 75-77% of the white vote with Asians & Hispanics by the same amount too.  Sure.......   

[Jake]

So many variables at play Smash. Something like 45% of all Blacks in the state live in the city of Philadelphia. A city where every major public official is supporting Hillary and a city where they very much practice "machine" politics. What's black turnout going to be like?

Secondly, how many Independents and Republicans will switch registrations and who will they vote for? Will Rush lead his crusade for Hillary? Will Barack have enough sway to get people to realize they need to change their registrations in ten days? Are the lions share of those Southeast PA'ers even registered Democratic seeing how on the local level the Republicans still have power in Bucks, Chesco, Montco, etc?

60% is a big margin, but I wouldn't dismiss it as an impossibility.

[Keystone Phil]

A city where every major public official is supporting Hillary and a city where they very much practice "machine" politics. What's black turnout going to be like?

With the exception of Chaka Fattah (who has proven himself to be a joke in citywide politics at least) and black ward leaders. But it is worth noting that Hillary has many black leaders on her side as well as some black ward leaders.

[Aizen]

58-42 is my prediction.

[??????????]

The Republicans here need to be rooting for an Obama nomination. McCain will have a much easier time defeating him.

[Reaganfan]

The Republicans here need to be rooting for an Obama nomination. McCain will have a much easier time defeating him.

Who cares? McCain will take care of both. By the time this mess is over...the Democratic Party will be toast for November.

[Jake]

With the exception of Chaka Fattah (who has proven himself to be a joke in citywide politics at least) and black ward leaders. But it is worth noting that Hillary has many black leaders on her side as well as some black ward leaders.

lol. Fattah finished 4th in a Democratic Mayoral Primary, as a sitting congressman, losing by 21 points to another black candidate? That primary is still hilarious a year later.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Obama can downplay Pennsylvania by just saying to look at the big picture instead of any particular state. He'll still have a large lead in overall delegates. After Hillary wins Pennsylvania it'll just be a few days of positive news media for her and then everyone will look toward NC and IN. And "momentum" has largely been nonexistant this election, if Hillary can survive 11 straight landslides and then still go on to do well on March 4 Obama can certainly survive one loss.

[Keystone Phil]

With the exception of Chaka Fattah (who has proven himself to be a joke in citywide politics at least) and black ward leaders. But it is worth noting that Hillary has many black leaders on her side as well as some black ward leaders.

lol. Fattah finished 4th in a Democratic Mayoral Primary, as a sitting congressman, losing by 21 points to another black candidate? That primary is still hilarious a year later.

The worst part was how Fattah was crowned Mayor months before the primary. He was supposed to be the lone top tier candidate with Nutter, Evans and Knox fighting for the scraps. I always supported Nutter but I didn't really think he had a chance until we got much closer to the primary. I expected Nutter to come in maybe second to last. Then Brady stepped in and we crowned him Mayor. Then he fell flat on his face. Fattah and Brady proved themselves to be the two biggest jokes in that race. It is still hilarious a year later. The two heavyweights battling for third place. Brady eventually got it...by less than a hundred votes.

And all of this is funny because they lost to Michael Nutter, the reformer, in a city still run by the machine. Amazing. That's the first (and so far only) election result I really was thrilled with.

[Tender Branson]

If he could bring the margin down to 6-8% in the next 6 weeks, I´d be delighted.

Nonetheless, in a strange anomaly, there´s a GE pattern right now that favors Obama in PA. In the latest Rasmussen and Strategic Vision polls he does better against McCain despite trailing by 20% in the primary. Could it be that Obama supporters are still more reluctant to vote for Hillary in the General than the other way round ?