Strategic Vision: Clinton +20 in PA

[Smash255]

If Clinton can do it for 11 states in a row offering many more delegates than Pennsylvania, I'm sure Obama can.

Again, this is six weeks of focusing on just one state and a big state, at that. It's hard to ignore.

Yes, it's much different than winning caucuses and little states with high black populations in which you automatically win 90% of the demographic. It is like trying to ignore Texas and Ohio because it looks like they'll lose. And Clinton didn't ignore them, losing those 11 straight hurt her. It was beginning to look like she was going to lose Ohio and Texas.

I hope she breaks 60% in Pennsylvania. I know she will in West Virginia and Kentucky.

60% isn't going to happen, he would need to get at least 70% of the white vote (including Asians & Hispanics) to achieve that and likely in the 72-73% range.   With suburban Philly in the mix no way can she get that amount of the white vote.  Central & western PA?  Very possible.  Northeast PA?  maybe.  The state as a whole once you take suburban Philly into the mix?  No.

[Smash255]

True. Obama is always over polled, though. He could do worse than 36%!

Lets at least be somewhat reasonable here.   Clinton will no doubt win the white vote and by a large margin, but  she would need to win it by more than she did in Mississippi, something along the lines of 75-77% of the white vote with Asians & Hispanics by the same amount too.  Sure.......   

[Smash255]

So many variables at play Smash. Something like 45% of all Blacks in the state live in the city of Philadelphia. A city where every major public official is supporting Hillary and a city where they very much practice "machine" politics. What's black turnout going to be like?

Secondly, how many Independents and Republicans will switch registrations and who will they vote for? Will Rush lead his crusade for Hillary? Will Barack have enough sway to get people to realize they need to change their registrations in ten days? Are the lions share of those Southeast PA'ers even registered Democratic seeing how on the local level the Republicans still have power in Bucks, Chesco, Montco, etc?

60% is a big margin, but I wouldn't dismiss it as an impossibility.

Even with the Phily political machine and black leaders in Philly supporting Hillary I don't see it helping her much.  While not the same thing entirely Stephanie Tubbs- Jones is very popular in Cleveland and her district, very strong Clinton supporter, and Obama put up massive numbers in the district.  In regards to SE PA and registration.   Statewide the Dems have seen an increase in an enrollment by over 65,000, 21 times the GOP new enrollment.  With the largest gains in Delaware. MontCo & Chester, thats very likely to continue through the registration deadline.  The suburban Phill vote will make up a higher % of the Democratic Primary vote than they have in the past.

[Smash255]

Even with the Phily political machine and black leaders in Philly supporting Hillary I don't see it helping her much.  While not the same thing entirely Stephanie Tubbs- Jones is very popular in Cleveland and her district, very strong Clinton supporter, and Obama put up massive numbers in the district.  In regards to SE PA and registration.   Statewide the Dems have seen an increase in an enrollment by over 65,000, 21 times the GOP new enrollment.  With the largest gains in Delaware. MontCo & Chester, thats very likely to continue through the registration deadline.  The suburban Phill vote will make up a higher % of the Democratic Primary vote than they have in the past.

And the mayor supported Obama.

As to enrollment increases, I posted about this in the other thread. All parties posted something like a 76,000 voter increase total; if the Democrats are actually registering indies/Republicans, the Indies and Republicans must be registering similar numbers of brand new voters, and that goes against the common sense of new registrations benefitting Democrats due to youth and first time voters.

Its probably a combination of the two.  If you were to suggest it was all new voters it would come out to about a 21-1 advantage in new voters for the Dems.  Younger and new voters are breaking strongly to the Dems, but not at a 21-1 ratio.

its approx 75,000  and out of the 75,000 voters added, if you were to assume the breakout was 60% Dem, 25% Ind, 15% GOP.  You would have an increase of Democrats by over 45,000.  Indy's of a little under 19,000 and Republicans by over 11,000.  That still leaves 20,000 who have recently switched to the Dems from either GOP or Indy, and a breakout of newly registered of 4-1 Dem over GOP is likely a tad high, probably closer to 5-2 or 3-1

[Smash255]

So 20,000 voters will make this tidal wave of difference? When they split 50-50 in Ohio?

I was just using that as an example.  No way of knowing exactly how many were completley new and how many simply changed.  That number will be higher by the time the deadline is complete.  They may have split 50-50 in Ohio, but considering the largest portion of this gain occurred in SEPA, it is likely to favor Obama.  On top of that the majority of newly registered voters are very likely to favor Obama as well as the majority of those are younger voters. 

One thing to look at on who these new voters would help is where in the state they are coming from, MontCo, Delaware and Chester is where the Dems have seen their biggest gains, the increases we have seen so far is going to continue through the registration deadline and that obviously helps Obama.

Thats not to suggest that Clinton isn't the favorite, she obviously is and a very strong one at that.  However, it makes it really hard for Clinton to do better in PA than she did in Ohio. 

[Smash255]

So 20,000 voters will make this tidal wave of difference? When they split 50-50 in Ohio?

I was just using that as an example.  No way of knowing exactly how many were completley new and how many simply changed.  That number will be higher by the time the deadline is complete.  They may have split 50-50 in Ohio, but considering the largest portion of this gain occurred in SEPA, it is likely to favor Obama.  On top of that the majority of newly registered voters are very likely to favor Obama as well as the majority of those are younger voters. 

One thing to look at on who these new voters would help is where in the state they are coming from, MontCo, Delaware and Chester is where the Dems have seen their biggest gains, the increases we have seen so far is going to continue through the registration deadline and that obviously helps Obama.

Thats not to suggest that Clinton isn't the favorite, she obviously is and a very strong one at that.  However, it makes it really hard for Clinton to do better in PA than she did in Ohio. 

Smash,

If you read my earlier post, I provided some ancedotal evidence about people switching to vote for Obama...

I only mention it to caution you to potentially dampen the number of new democrats in SE PA...some of these people, including potentially my mom (which reminds me, I have to help her switch before the 24th), are really Obamacans.

Granted, I'm just stating that these new Dem voters regardless if they are completley new, Republicans who finally gave up on the GOP, or Obomacans.  These new Democratic voters are likely to go towards Obama, and as a result will make it virtually impossible for Clinton to crack the 60% barrier against Obama, and make it really hard for her to really do any better in PA than she did in Ohio.  The white collar white vote in the Dem Primary is going to make up a larger % of the Dem Primary vote than it has in the past in PA and larger than it was in Ohio.