Strategic Vision: Clinton +20 in PA

[Jake]

So many variables at play Smash. Something like 45% of all Blacks in the state live in the city of Philadelphia. A city where every major public official is supporting Hillary and a city where they very much practice "machine" politics. What's black turnout going to be like?

Secondly, how many Independents and Republicans will switch registrations and who will they vote for? Will Rush lead his crusade for Hillary? Will Barack have enough sway to get people to realize they need to change their registrations in ten days? Are the lions share of those Southeast PA'ers even registered Democratic seeing how on the local level the Republicans still have power in Bucks, Chesco, Montco, etc?

60% is a big margin, but I wouldn't dismiss it as an impossibility.

[Jake]

With the exception of Chaka Fattah (who has proven himself to be a joke in citywide politics at least) and black ward leaders. But it is worth noting that Hillary has many black leaders on her side as well as some black ward leaders.

lol. Fattah finished 4th in a Democratic Mayoral Primary, as a sitting congressman, losing by 21 points to another black candidate? That primary is still hilarious a year later.

[Jake]

BRTD, at which point during this cycle have we gone 42 days between races? How exactly does Obama campaign his ass off for six weeks in PA (as he has too) and then say, "nah, it doesn't matter". You don't think people will hear about "PA, PA, PA" on the tube for six weeks and look for the result, seeing that Clinton won a pretty big win in the only state up for grabs?

Sure, political junkies know that she's looking at like a 75 delegate gap at best at the end of the day, but do the folks?

[Jake]

Even with the Phily political machine and black leaders in Philly supporting Hillary I don't see it helping her much.  While not the same thing entirely Stephanie Tubbs- Jones is very popular in Cleveland and her district, very strong Clinton supporter, and Obama put up massive numbers in the district.  In regards to SE PA and registration.   Statewide the Dems have seen an increase in an enrollment by over 65,000, 21 times the GOP new enrollment.  With the largest gains in Delaware. MontCo & Chester, thats very likely to continue through the registration deadline.  The suburban Phill vote will make up a higher % of the Democratic Primary vote than they have in the past.

And the mayor supported Obama.

As to enrollment increases, I posted about this in the other thread. All parties posted something like a 76,000 voter increase total; if the Democrats are actually registering indies/Republicans, the Indies and Republicans must be registering similar numbers of brand new voters, and that goes against the common sense of new registrations benefitting Democrats due to youth and first time voters.

[Jake]

So 20,000 voters will make this tidal wave of difference? When they split 50-50 in Ohio?