A couple findings in the new poll capture how conflicted Americans are. By a 13-point margin, 50% to 37%, registered voters say they would prefer a Democrat to be elected president. When asked to choose specifically between Arizona Sen. McCain and either Democrat, the results in each case are a statistical tie.
Illinois Sen. Obama edges Sen. McCain by 47% to 44%, while Sen. Clinton, of New York, beats the Republican by a near-identical 47% to 45%. The poll, which surveyed 1,012 registered voters March 7-10, has a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
Yet plenty in the poll underscores the hurdles ahead for Sen. McCain.
In an election in which most voters say they seek change, one in five says he could deliver it. Likewise, the senator who first emerged nationally as George W. Bush's chief nemesis in the 2000 campaign now represents to many voters a continuation of the unpopular president's policies -- especially toward the war in Iraq. Three-quarters of voters say they want the next president to govern differently from Mr. Bush, the poll shows, yet just as many say Sen. McCain would "closely" follow the Bush program.
Further evidence that Mr. Bush will be a drag: Voters by two-to one disapprove of his job performance generally, and his handling of the economy and Iraq, as they have for the past two years. The economy, not the war, remains the top issue for voters. More Americans say they are worse off than four years ago, compared with those who say they're better off; the margin is the worst in Journal/NBC surveys since 1992 -- before Mr. Bush's father lost re-election.
By 56% to 30%, voters say the economy and health-care issues -- where they favor Democrats -- are more important in deciding who should be president than terrorism and social issues -- areas where Republicans are stronger. That is roughly the reverse of voters' priorities right before Mr. Bush's 2004 re-election.
The toll on Republicans is reflected in voters' party identification. By 12 points, 47% to 35%, more voters say they are Democrats or lean that way; four years ago, the parties were roughly even. Republicans' slippage is mostly among those 18 to 34 years old. While strategists typically give short shrift to younger Americans because many don't vote, Mr. McInturff says their excitement this year, especially on the Democrats' side, could make 2008 "one of the first general-election cycles where they become a very important subgroup." That could hurt 71-year-old Sen. McCain.
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