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Author Topic: Democrats will not regain Senate  (Read 8931 times)
zorkpolitics
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« on: August 19, 2004, 06:44:30 pm »
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Looks like OK has shifted from toss-up to leans R.

http://www.soonerpolitics.com/Volume14Number5.pdf

This and the recent poll putting Coors slightly ahead in CO,     pretty much eliminate the Democrats chances of winning the Senate

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/CO040817pressen.pdf

The Republican will pick-up seats in GA and SC, and the Democrats will pick-up IL. Even if the Democrats hold NC, LA, and FL and SD and take AK the Senate will still stay Republican.
Much more likely, the Republicans will end up with a net 1-3 gain in the Senate
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #1 on: August 19, 2004, 07:48:16 pm »
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OK is a lost cause, it looks like.

SC and GA are Rep Pickups, IL is a Dem pickup.

If we win CO and AK while holding on to....

never mind, it's probably over.  But The Dems still can net one seat if we hold NC, LA, and FL while picking up in AK, IL, and CO.
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Miamiu1027
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« Reply #2 on: August 19, 2004, 07:48:52 pm »
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OK is a lost cause, it looks like.

SC and GA are Rep Pickups, IL is a Dem pickup.

If we win CO and AK while holding on to....

never mind, it's probably over.  But The Dems still can net one seat if we hold NC, LA, and FL while picking up in AK, IL, and CO.
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« Reply #3 on: August 19, 2004, 08:44:43 pm »
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The Dem candidates in Florida are weak. I think they will lose there regardless of who wins the electoral votes.

I think the GOP is very likely to net seats, possibly a large number if Bush does well. Illinois is a lost cause, but the GOP is almost certain to win GA and SC. So the real nail biters begin with the GOP up 1.

Leans GOP

Florida (D)
Colorado (R)
Oklahoma (R)

Leans DNC

South Dakota (D)
Washington (D)

Toss up

Alaska (R)
North Carolina (R)
Louisiana (D)

I include Washington because Nethercutt's chance of winning is comparable to Carson's; both are solid candidates in tough states for their party (and both in Congress as well).

If you assume a 'lean' means 2/3 chance (purely arbitrary) and toss up is 1/2, then the Dem chances are about 0.002 or .2%, which is 1 out of 500, of taking the Senate.
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« Reply #4 on: August 19, 2004, 09:50:06 pm »
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As of right now, I think the most likely result is a two seat gain for the GOP, but anything between a three seat Dem gain and a six seat GOP gain is still possible.  I can't see the Dems managing any gains unless Kerry wins and has some actual coattails, so it does look like that in the unlikely event of a 269-269 EV tie, Bush/Cheney will get a second term.
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RG Fritz
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« Reply #5 on: August 19, 2004, 10:46:12 pm »
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I agree, the Dems aren't getting the Senate this year.  I think the best we can hope for is an even swap- IL and AK for SC and GA.
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Horus
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« Reply #6 on: August 19, 2004, 10:52:22 pm »
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Yeah, but getting Obama will be a good win, even though we lose Florida, Louisiana, South Carolina and Georgia.

Still, I hope we are able to get Alaska, because we have a 50% shot and Colorado is certainly not out of reach yet.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7 on: August 19, 2004, 11:03:32 pm »
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Yeah, but getting Obama will be a good win, even though we lose Florida, Louisiana, South Carolina and Georgia.


Louisiana will stay Dem. Congressman Chris John is a great candidate and a conservative Democrat. He is my favorite Dem member of the U.S. House so I'd have no probably voting for him (though I'd vote for Vitter before John).
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Ben.
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« Reply #8 on: August 20, 2004, 05:12:27 am »
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Leans DNC

South Dakota (D)
Washington (D)


"Leans" Washington! last poll i saw had the Gop at 36%! this is not a "lean" its a Dem Cert IMHO... same as GA is for the GOP and IL for the DNC.
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« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2004, 05:34:41 am »
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The Washington Senate race is over. There's several races not mentioned that will be closer than that one.
But the Senate will stay Republican, or I'd be mighty surprised.

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« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2004, 07:25:43 am »
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The Dem candidates in Florida are weak. I think they will lose there regardless of who wins the electoral votes.


Florida is trouble for the Dems if Martinez wins the primary.  But no matter what the White House wants you to believe, McCollum is leading the race, and he is a likely loser in the general.  So I wouldn't be making any claims about this race until at least after the primary.

It does look like SC and OK are now good bets for the GOP.  So the Dems would have to win all the remaining close races in order to win the Senate: CO, LA, AK, SD, and the White House.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2004, 08:07:47 am »
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It ain't over 'till it's over... While the GOP *should* hold the Senate this year, nothing is certain.
As Harold Wilson said:

"A week is a long time in politics"

BTW, Goldie analysis is more than a little biased: Bowles currently has a bigger lead in NC than all of Goldies "GOP Leaners"...
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2004, 06:59:08 pm »
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Yeah, but getting Obama will be a good win, even though we lose Florida, Louisiana, South Carolina and Georgia.

Still, I hope we are able to get Alaska, because we have a 50% shot and Colorado is certainly not out of reach yet.

That makes sense. Lisa Murkowski is unpopular in Alaska because of the way she got her Senate seat.

On a side note, there are Senate Elections for your district going on right now, you might want to vote.
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2004, 07:38:10 pm »
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I'm not really going by the polls, just how I see the candidates and the possibilty of coattails.

Stabenow was down something like 17% a month before the 2000 election, and she won. In 2002, Chambliss was way down a month out, and he won pretty handily. Here we are, further out than that.

So I think you have look past the polls for the most part. Most of these battles are being fought on GOP turf, which really puts the Dems at a disadvantage some people are not factoring in.

I left out Wisconsin, Nevada, Missouri, and Pennslyvania- some or all of which *arguably* could be mildly close based on past history. I left out South Carolina because it will take a major DeMint screw up for Inez to win... and I know a lot of people that work for/with DeMint-- he'll be fine.

Based on the 2000 election, the Dems are in serious, serious trouble. Dem candidate did very well in states Gore won... and usually not so well where Bush won.
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Akno21
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« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2004, 09:56:19 am »
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Leans DNC

South Dakota (D)
Washington (D)


"Leans" Washington! last poll i saw had the Gop at 36%! this is not a "lean" its a Dem Cert IMHO... same as GA is for the GOP and IL for the DNC.

The Democrats will do better in the Senate Elections than in the Presidential Elections IMHO in Washington state. There still is time for the Republicans to catch up though.

On a side note, there are elections going on in your district for Fantasy Elections right now. I think you can vote in 2A and 4B.
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RG Fritz
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« Reply #15 on: August 22, 2004, 10:06:07 am »
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On a side note, there are elections going on in your district for Fantasy Elections right now. I think you can vote in 2A and 4B.

Sorry Akno, but AuH2O is not registered in fantasy-land.
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Akno21
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« Reply #16 on: August 22, 2004, 10:23:55 am »
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On a side note, there are elections going on in your district for Fantasy Elections right now. I think you can vote in 2A and 4B.

Sorry Akno, but AuH2O is not registered in fantasy-land.

I was talking to Sec. Treasury Ben, not AuH2O, although it doesn't really matter.  
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RG Fritz
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« Reply #17 on: August 22, 2004, 10:25:06 am »
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Sorry, my mistake.  Ben, go vote.
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« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2004, 10:25:23 am »
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Byrd or Gallagher would be better to beat the Democrats here in Florida. I got a DVD political ad in the mail done by gallagher. It was pretty good and I like both of them. Byrd will probably win though.
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« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2004, 07:01:31 am »
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I don't think the Democrats will gain the Senate.

I notice that there are only at present 8 Democratic senators in the South and five are up for election.

On paper, Louisiana and Florida should be 'safe' holds, with North Carolina competitive - but I expect to Republicans to gain Georgia and South Carolina.

Democrats should pick up Illinois no problem. They have a fighting chance of gaining Alaska and Colorado. Even if successful it's insufficient to gain control of the Senate.

Dave
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2004, 07:05:36 am »
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I don't think the Democrats will gain the Senate.

I notice that there are only at present 8 Democratic senators in the South and five are up for election.

On paper, Louisiana and Florida should be 'safe' holds, with North Carolina competitive - but I expect to Republicans to gain Georgia and South Carolina.

Democrats should pick up Illinois no problem. They have a fighting chance of gaining Alaska and Colorado. Even if successful it's insufficient to gain control of the Senate.

Dave

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« Reply #21 on: August 23, 2004, 08:46:42 am »
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Byrd or Gallagher would be better to beat the Democrats here in Florida. I got a DVD political ad in the mail done by gallagher. It was pretty good and I like both of them. Byrd will probably win though.

Wow a DVD ad mailed to your house? Never heard of that before. Well, Gallagher has the money so it doesn't surprise me that much.

Now I know you support Byrd but why do you think he is going to win? Statewide polls show him down (unless you are looking at one I haven't seen). Do you know something I don't know? Is turnout in the Tampa and Jacksonville area usually stronger in GOP primaries?
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