The Dem candidates in Florida are weak. I think they will lose there regardless of who wins the electoral votes.
Florida is trouble for the Dems if Martinez wins the primary. But no matter what the White House wants you to believe, McCollum is leading the race, and he is a likely loser in the general. So I wouldn't be making any claims about this race until at least after the primary.
It does look like SC and OK are now good bets for the GOP. So the Dems would have to win all the remaining close races in order to win the Senate: CO, LA, AK, SD, and the White House.
