Democrats will not regain Senate

[AuH2O]

The Dem candidates in Florida are weak. I think they will lose there regardless of who wins the electoral votes.

I think the GOP is very likely to net seats, possibly a large number if Bush does well. Illinois is a lost cause, but the GOP is almost certain to win GA and SC. So the real nail biters begin with the GOP up 1.

Leans GOP

Florida (D)
Colorado (R)
Oklahoma (R)

Leans DNC

South Dakota (D)
Washington (D)

Toss up

Alaska (R)
North Carolina (R)
Louisiana (D)

I include Washington because Nethercutt's chance of winning is comparable to Carson's; both are solid candidates in tough states for their party (and both in Congress as well).

If you assume a 'lean' means 2/3 chance (purely arbitrary) and toss up is 1/2, then the Dem chances are about 0.002 or .2%, which is 1 out of 500, of taking the Senate.

[AuH2O]

I'm not really going by the polls, just how I see the candidates and the possibilty of coattails.

Stabenow was down something like 17% a month before the 2000 election, and she won. In 2002, Chambliss was way down a month out, and he won pretty handily. Here we are, further out than that.

So I think you have look past the polls for the most part. Most of these battles are being fought on GOP turf, which really puts the Dems at a disadvantage some people are not factoring in.

I left out Wisconsin, Nevada, Missouri, and Pennslyvania- some or all of which *arguably* could be mildly close based on past history. I left out South Carolina because it will take a major DeMint screw up for Inez to win... and I know a lot of people that work for/with DeMint-- he'll be fine.

Based on the 2000 election, the Dems are in serious, serious trouble. Dem candidate did very well in states Gore won... and usually not so well where Bush won.