Wisconsin Primary (Event)

[Dave Leip]

This topic is linked to the calendar for the Wisconsin Primary event.

[© Tweed the Younger]

Latest WI poll:

Kerry 45%
(Clark 13%)
Dean 12%
Edwards 9%
Kucinich 1%
Sharpton 1%
other 1%
undecided 17%

[Sibboleth]

Latest WI poll:

Kerry: 53%
Edwards: 16%
Dean: 11%
Kuchinich: 2%
Sharpton: 2%
Undecided: 16%

[© Tweed the Younger]

Okay, so I was wrong.

[© Tweed the Younger]

My prediction:

Kerry 65%
Edwards 25%
Dean 13%
Others 7%

[sgpine]

Latest poll from Zogs:

Kerry 47%
Dean 23%
Edwards 20%
Kucinich 2%
Sharpton 1%

Suprisingly strong for Dean, imo, but Kerry still has more than double second place.

[Ben.]

After his endorsement by the biggest paper in the state, the Milwaukee Journal, and his good performance in the debate last night I would say that Edwards will go up…the probable reason that Dean is ahead is that he’s bombarded the state with adds and poured all his resources into (his supporters are still giving him plenty of money remember)… I think that when the next polls come out it should show Edwards up into second place and that would be sufficient for the press to start talking of a two man race…I mean that’s what they would like to be able to do from what I can tell… don’t blame me I voted for Edwards on Feb 3rd … but a real horse race at this stage is unlikely however where Edwards to make the race in WI closer he could then stay in till supper Tuesday and that would keep it a race…however if Kerry wins by the massive margin that the polls are suggesting then the primaries will be essentially over…            

[elcorazon]

My prediction:

Kerry 44%
Edwards 31%
Dean 21%
Kucinich 3%
Sharpton 1%

Edited after hearing about the endorsement of Edwards by Milwaukee's largest paper.

[zachman]

That prediction would give Edwards a boost, and he would become the anti-Kerry vote for Super Tuesday. The anti-Kerry vote will get over 30% everywhere (excluding Massachusetts).

[opebo]

That prediction would give Edwards a boost, and he would become the anti-Kerry vote for Super Tuesday. The anti-Kerry vote will get over 30% everywhere (excluding Massachusetts).

So what does that do for Edwards re the nomination?  

[emergingDmajority1]

Kerry- 47
Dean- 23
Edwards- 20
Kucinich-2
Sharpton- 1
undecided- *

May not add up to 100%, due to rounding
*In today’s release, Leaners among the
Undecideds have been factored in


as usual, pumping up Dean's numbers. This was also before yesterdays debate where Edwards won and before Edwards got endorsed by the biggest paper in wisconsin.

[John]

Here is my
Kerry: 60%
Edwards: 12%
Dean: 10%
Shapton: 3%
Dean & Ewdards Drop out

[Ben.]

Here’s my stab at the WI results with the Zogby numbers in brackets…

Kerry: 46 (47)

Edwards: 28 (20)

Dean: 23 (23)

Kucinich: 2 (2)

Sharpton: 1 (1)

I’m still hoping for a better second for Edwards and with the newspaper endorsement and the good performance last night perhaps we will be surprised… this contest needs to go on until “Super Tuesday”… I think Dean’s going to be either dropping out or “suspending” his campaign after WI… this should help Edwards…but Edwards can only continue if he fishes at least as an undisputed second… with Dean out and a relatively good performance Edwards should receive media coverage as the “anti Kerry” candidate and this could help him on Supper Tuesday…it’s a long shot… but a shot none the less…      

[Gustaf]

Here’s my stab at the WI results with the Zogby numbers in brackets…

Kerry: 46 (47)

Edwards: 28 (20)

Dean: 23 (23)

Kucinich: 2 (2)

Sharpton: 1 (1)

I’m still hoping for a better second for Edwards and with the newspaper endorsement and the good performance last night perhaps we will be surprised… this contest needs to go on until “Super Tuesday”… I think Dean’s going to be either dropping out or “suspending” his campaign after WI… this should help Edwards…but Edwards can only continue if he fishes at least as an undisputed second… with Dean out and a relatively good performance Edwards should receive media coverage as the “anti Kerry” candidate and this could help him on Supper Tuesday…it’s a long shot… but a shot none the less…      

A really, really long shot, imo. Edwards lost in TN and VA, that put his chances of winning the nomination very close to ZERO. He would need something extraordinary to save him now.

[Ben.]

Your right Gustaf... but hell! I need something to hold onto for the time being... see in my little universe the nomination isn’t settled yet and Edwards is still a real player for the nomination…

Sorry snapping back into reality now… ultimately Edwards should have beaten Clark in Oklahoma… had he done that Clark would have been out and I would say that Edwards would have come a good second in Michigan and done better in Maine and then probably won Tennessee and come a close second in Virginia then he could have strongly contested in Nevada and DC and by now we would have a tough race in Wisconsin with Kerry being forced to fend off a real Edwards challenge…rather than the rather desperate effort Edwards is being forced to launch at this stage…shame really but there you go…        

[Gustaf]

Your right Gustaf... but hell! I need something to hold onto for the time being... see in my little universe the nomination isn’t settled yet and Edwards is still a real player for the nomination…

Sorry snapping back into reality now… ultimately Edwards should have beaten Clark in Oklahoma… had he done that Clark would have been out and I would say that Edwards would have come a good second in Michigan and done better in Maine and then probably won Tennessee and come a close second in Virginia then he could have strongly contested in Nevada and DC and by now we would have a tough race in Wisconsin with Kerry being forced to fend off a real Edwards challenge…rather than the rather desperate effort Edwards is being forced to launch at this stage…shame really but there you go…        

Yeah, I sympathize with you, I was hoping for Edwards as well...

I think OK was vital, together with NH, often overlooked. If Edwards had squeezed past Clark there, it would have been a definite humiliation for Clark, and might have given OK to Edwards. And then Clark would've dropped out, he almost did anyway, and most of his voters would have gone to Edwards, making VA competitive and TN go for Edwards and keeping him in the race.

[Ben.]

Glad to see a fellow Edwards supporter…just a pity you can’t vote over here…forgot about NH had some of the polls been right and had Edwards got the 15% or so that some where predicting and Clark had been some where marginally ahead of Lieberman well things would have been different… in the end its sad to say it but Clark and Edwards cancelled each other out…

Would have been interesting to see if Edwards would still have been able to make a race of it with Kerry had Clark won OK but still dropped out…still it’ll all be over one way or another pretty soon…

[© Tweed the Younger]

Here is my
Kerry: 60%
Edwards: 12%
Dean: 10%
Shapton: 3%
Dean & Ewdards Drop out

That's actually under 100%

[emergingDmajority1]

my guess is that it will be

Kerry- 46%
Edwards- 30%
Dean- 18%
Kucinich- 3
Sharpton- 2

maybe I'm being too generous with Edwards numbers, but I just have a feeling...

I can't believe the latest Zogby #'s that have Dean at 23% and ahead of Edwards.

[zachman]

I think that will be accurate. The news today is going to send half the Dean supporters to Edwards and Dean will be diminished like Gephardt was in Iowa. Edwards will have a moral victory tomorrow.

[Gustaf]

Glad to see a fellow Edwards supporter…just a pity you can’t vote over here…forgot about NH had some of the polls been right and had Edwards got the 15% or so that some where predicting and Clark had been some where marginally ahead of Lieberman well things would have been different… in the end its sad to say it but Clark and Edwards cancelled each other out…

Would have been interesting to see if Edwards would still have been able to make a race of it with Kerry had Clark won OK but still dropped out…still it’ll all be over one way or another pretty soon…

Yeah, it would've been fun getting a vote, even though it would have been bad to be in MN, they don't vote until Super Tuesday.

I agree that the race would have been more fun to watch under those circumstances, but on the other hand Kerry has more of a chance in the general now that the party can rally behind a candidate earlier.

[John]

Well have you watch
Kerry & Edwards are in a close on
Dean might Drop I Hope he dose
becuse he has maid up his mind if he is going to drop out or stay in  
he is gone after Tonight

[zachman]

I think that will be accurate. The news today is going to send half the Dean supporters to Edwards and Dean will be diminished like Gephardt was in Iowa. Edwards will have a moral victory tomorrow.

Ha!! I guessed it. Although my prediction in NH was way off, I predicted the Iowa order correctly and predicted the concept of a Gephardt slide.

[NHPolitico]

Your right Gustaf... but hell! I need something to hold onto for the time being... see in my little universe the nomination isn’t settled yet and Edwards is still a real player for the nomination…

Sorry snapping back into reality now… ultimately Edwards should have beaten Clark in Oklahoma… had he done that Clark would have been out and I would say that Edwards would have come a good second in Michigan and done better in Maine and then probably won Tennessee and come a close second in Virginia then he could have strongly contested in Nevada and DC and by now we would have a tough race in Wisconsin with Kerry being forced to fend off a real Edwards challenge…rather than the rather desperate effort Edwards is being forced to launch at this stage…shame really but there you go…        

You shouldn't give up on Edwards, yet.  He just has to figure out how to get his name out there. I'd challenge Kerry to more debates for starters.

[California Dreamer]

it looks like after all the hoopla the Wisconsin results are gonna look a lot like Iowa:

Iowa results
Kerry   38%
Edwards   32%
Dean   18%

Wisconsin (35% reporting)
Kerry   39%
Edwards   37%
Dean   18%