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|-+  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: True Federalist)
| | |-+  10% National Swings
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Author Topic: 10% National Swings  (Read 4036 times)
Хahar
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« on: March 16, 2008, 01:27:14 pm »
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This is a totally useless excercise that popped into my head after I did a '72 map with a 10% national swing to McGovern.

2004, 10% to Kerry:



428-110

2004, 10% to Bush:



523-15

2000, 10% to Gore:



509-29

2000, 10% to Bush:



498-40
« Last Edit: March 16, 2008, 02:09:19 pm by Vice-Chairman Xahar »Logged

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Alcon
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« Reply #1 on: March 16, 2008, 02:04:55 pm »
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Nor would a 10% swing in WA make it >60 Bush.  I assume you're just adding 10 percentage points to their vote share, right?  That's actually a 20% swing.
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Хahar
Xahar
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« Reply #2 on: March 16, 2008, 02:09:43 pm »
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Nor would a 10% swing in WA make it >60 Bush.  I assume you're just adding 10 percentage points to their vote share, right?  That's actually a 20% swing.

I was working pretty fast, and made a mistake.
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GPORTER
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« Reply #3 on: March 16, 2008, 07:55:13 pm »
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Plus 10% to Dole and minus 10% for Clinton.
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Mango
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« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2008, 10:49:01 pm »
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10% to Dukakis (i.e +5 for Dukakis, -5 for Bush)



Dukakis: 280
Bush: 258





10% to Mondale



Reagan: 418
Mondale: 120


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Mango
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« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2008, 11:02:34 pm »
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10% to Carter 1980 (-3.5 Reagan, -1,5 Anderson, +5 Carter)



Carter: 283
Reagan: 255


If you leave out Anderson and make it a straight swing against Reagan of 10, Carter gains Connecticut and Oregon.


10% to McGovern



Nixon: 492
McGovern: 46



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Mango
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« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2008, 11:13:06 pm »
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10% to Humphrey (+5 Humphrey, -4 Nixon, -1 Humphrey) (In Deep South, -3 Nixon, -2 Wallace)



10% to Goldwater



Johnson: 440
Goldwater: 98
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benconstine
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« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2008, 11:53:10 pm »
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1960 (+5 Kennedy, -5 Nixon)

Kennedy: 469
Nixon: 68
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Robespierre's Jaw
Senator Conor Flynn
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« Reply #8 on: March 17, 2008, 01:20:38 am »
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1940: Roosevelt/Wallace (D) vs. Willkie/McNary (R) 10% to Willkie



Wendell Willkie (R): 397 EV
Franklin D. Roosevelt (D): 134 EV
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Robespierre's Jaw
Senator Conor Flynn
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« Reply #9 on: March 17, 2008, 02:05:39 am »
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1936: Roosevelt/Garner (D) vs. Landon/Knox (R): 10% to Landon



Franklin D. Roosevelt (D): 300 EV
Alf Landon (R): 231 EV
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GPORTER
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« Reply #10 on: March 17, 2008, 11:31:29 am »
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A squeaker of a reelection victory for Hoover

Franklin Roosevelt: 261
Herbert Hoover: 270

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benconstine
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« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2008, 12:10:40 pm »
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1952 (+5 Stevenson, -5 Eisenhower)

Eisenhower: 288
Stevenson: 243

1956 (+5 Stevenson, -5 Eisenhower)

Eisenhower: 408
Stevenson: 123
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Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
Robespierre's Jaw
Senator Conor Flynn
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« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2008, 03:33:02 pm »
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1944: Roosevelt/Truman (D) vs. Dewey/Bricker (R): 10% to Dewey



Thomas Dewey/John W. Bricker (R): 400 EV
Franklin D. Roosevelt/Harry Truman (D): 131 EV
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Erc
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« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2008, 08:37:46 pm »
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+5% to Wallace, 1968  (done proportionally to his vote in each state, so some of the results for the states he did win are more than a bit messed up):



Nixon: 256
Humphrey: 191
Wallace: 91
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benconstine
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« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2008, 10:16:56 pm »
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1976 (+5 Carter, -5 Ford):

Carter: 506
Ford: 32

1928: (+5 Smith, -5 Hoover):

Hoover: 319
Smith: 212
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Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
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