MN-SurveyUSA: Coleman back in good shape

[Tender Branson]

Coleman: 51%
Franken: 41%

MN Women Take a Second Look at Coleman; GOP Incumbent Now Back on Top of Franken: Republican Incumbent Norm Coleman defeats any of his 3 remaining DFL challengers in an election for U.S. Senator from Minnesota today, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV Minneapolis.

Today, it's Coleman 51%, comedian Al Franken 41%. When the DFL candidate is either Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer or Darryl Stanton, Coleman wins 2:1. Back to Franken: Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released one month ago, Coleman is up 4, Franken is down 5. All of that movement is with women.

A month ago, Coleman trailed Franken by 12 among women. Today he leads by 5, a 17-point swing. Coleman holds 92% of his Republican base. Franken holds 75% of his Democratic base, but loses 18%, who cross-over.

Independents break 6:5 for Coleman. For the past 3 months, Coleman and Franken had been tied in the Twin-Cities. Today, Coleman pulls ahead by 14 points.

700 state of Minnesota adults were interviewed 03/12/08. Of them, 644 were registered to vote.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=499f6a5d-b843-4d76-9251-bbc24e24645c

[Keystone Phil]

Looks good.

[Mr.Phips]

I think this has a lot to do with the Democratic Presidential race.  Democrats are getting very, very depressed and you are seeing it in poll numbers all accross the country.

[perdedor]

A temporary trend. I expect Democrats across the country to receive once the presidential circus comes to a close. Don't get to cozy, Republicans.

[Meeker]

Coleman's best age demographic is 18-34. Weird.

[Adlai Stevenson]

A temporary trend. I expect Democrats across the country to receive once the presidential circus comes to a close. Don't get to cozy, Republicans.

[Eraserhead]

Hmm... what could have caused this? Did Franken do something politically foolish already?

Then again, it might just be an outlier.

[Padfoot]

Hmm... what could have caused this? Did Franken do something politically foolish already?

Then again, it might just be an outlier.

That's what I was wondering, especially since the movement is mostly with women.  Did he say or do something to make chicks unhappy?

[AndrewTX]

Maybe Stuart Smalley just isn't who they want as their next Senator.  Either way, this is one of three races that polls will just fail all together on. I'll just wait till November.

[agcatter]

The thought of Senator Al Franken is a bit much even for Minn.  Very similar to the idea of Senator Ollie North not flying in Virginia.  Thank God there are enough serious voters to keep things real.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am skeptical of this poll, Survey USA has never had Franken ahead of Coleman. But with McCain running on the top of the ticket it should help out Coleman.

[HardRCafé]

Did Franken do something politically foolish already?

Everything?

[Meeker]

No one's paying attention to this race yet. It's 7 and a half months out, plenty can happen.

[Keystone Phil]

Franken up three points against Coleman about a month ago - LOLZ BYE BYE, NORM!

Coleman up ten points against Franken now - Oh, well, nobody is really paying attention yet so...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Hmm... what could have caused this? Did Franken do something politically foolish already?

No.

Coleman's best age demographic is 18-34. Weird.

Sample size of 167.

[Meeker]

Franken up three points against Coleman about a month ago - LOLZ BYE BYE, NORM!

Coleman up ten points against Franken now - Oh, well, nobody is really paying attention yet so...

Please find the quote of me saying that.

Thanks.

[Keystone Phil]

Franken up three points against Coleman about a month ago - LOLZ BYE BYE, NORM!

Coleman up ten points against Franken now - Oh, well, nobody is really paying attention yet so...

Please find the quote of me saying that.

Thanks.

Just saying it in general, my friend.

Thanks.

[Meeker]

Franken up three points against Coleman about a month ago - LOLZ BYE BYE, NORM!

Coleman up ten points against Franken now - Oh, well, nobody is really paying attention yet so...

Please find the quote of me saying that.

Thanks.

Just saying it in general, my friend.

Thanks.

Considering I was the only one to say anything along the lines of "nobody is paying attention yet"...

Thanks.

[Keystone Phil]

Franken up three points against Coleman about a month ago - LOLZ BYE BYE, NORM!

Coleman up ten points against Franken now - Oh, well, nobody is really paying attention yet so...

Please find the quote of me saying that.

Thanks.

Just saying it in general, my friend.

Thanks.

Considering I was the only one to say anything along the lines of "nobody is paying attention yet"...

Thanks.

Considering the fact that I am expecting every hack to say that at some point...

Thanks.

[Meeker]

Franken up three points against Coleman about a month ago - LOLZ BYE BYE, NORM!

Coleman up ten points against Franken now - Oh, well, nobody is really paying attention yet so...

Please find the quote of me saying that.

Thanks.

Just saying it in general, my friend.

Thanks.

Considering I was the only one to say anything along the lines of "nobody is paying attention yet"...

Thanks.

Considering the fact that I am expecting every hack to say that at some point...

Thanks.

I don't quite understand how pointing out that a 10-point gap in a volatile race with 7 and 1/2 months to go isn't a problem makes one a hack, but to each their own.

Thanks.

[Keystone Phil]

I don't quite understand how pointing out that a 10-point gap in a volatile race with 7 and 1/2 months to go isn't a problem makes one a hack, but to each their own.

Thanks.

That's fine but I'm talking about people who would say just that when Coleman is leading but when Franken is leading, it's race over.

[Sam Spade]

One poll, gentlemen.  Of course, the Rasmussen was one poll too.  Eh, who knows at this point.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

One poll, gentlemen.  Of course, the Rasmussen was one poll too.  Eh, who knows at this point.

Yes, but which is more of an outlier?

[Sam Spade]

One poll, gentlemen.  Of course, the Rasmussen was one poll too.  Eh, who knows at this point.

Yes, but which is more of an outlier?

I don't know.  Rasmussen was aligned with HHH, which granted, is not as bad is Star Tribune, but, well you know (see my original quote)

Of course, now it's bumped to +2 Coleman.  Still too few polls to really say much.

[Democratic Hawk]