Is Iowa still a swing state?

[user60521]

On Thursday in Iowa, Republicans drew roughly 108,000 voters for their caucus and Democrats 239,000.  This seems to support  the Democrats' claim that about 40% of their caucus participants were independents.  With that kind of attraction by independents to the Democratic party, is Iowa now a Democratic lean state? It would certainly make sense with the shift, especially in that region.  The average of general election polls in Iowa show the Democrats with 7 point lead.

[Reignman]

Iowa will be pretty easy for the Democratic candidate to win, especially if it's Obama.

[SamInTheSouth]

On Thursday in Iowa, Republicans drew roughly 108,000 voters for their caucus and Democrats 239,000.  This seems to support  the Democrats' claim that about 40% of their caucus participants were independents.  With that kind of attraction by independents to the Democratic party, is Iowa now a Democratic lean state? It would certainly make sense with the shift, especially in that region.  The average of general election polls in Iowa show the Democrats with 7 point lead.

I think Iowa is still swing state territory, but it may lean a little more Democratic than Republican.  A lot of it will also depend on who the Republican candidate is.

[bergie72]

On Thursday in Iowa, Republicans drew roughly 108,000 voters for their caucus and Democrats 239,000.  This seems to support  the Democrats' claim that about 40% of their caucus participants were independents.  With that kind of attraction by independents to the Democratic party, is Iowa now a Democratic lean state? It would certainly make sense with the shift, especially in that region.  The average of general election polls in Iowa show the Democrats with 7 point lead.

I think Iowa is still swing state territory, but it may lean a little more Democratic than Republican.  A lot of it will also depend on who the Republican candidate is.

I have to agree with Sam...  The final candidates are going to decide alot on who eventually turns out in November...

[Platypus]

I'd go as far as to say the winner of Iowa wins the election. For me, it is actually the best barometer of opinion-where Missouri was 15 years ago.

[minionofmidas]

Of course Iowa is a swing state. That it will vote Democratic in 2008 is merely further confirmation of the fact.

[Tender Branson]

No. Not with Obama as the nominee:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8757bfec-93fa-4e25-af88-8e77b51250cd

[Gabu]

I'd go as far as to say the winner of Iowa wins the election. For me, it is actually the best barometer of opinion-where Missouri was 15 years ago.

So you believe Gore won the 2000 election then?

[memphis]

It's a swing state in the sense that it does not always vote for the same party every election the way Massachusetts and Wyoming do. Whether it will be competitive in 2008 remains to be seen.

[user60521]

I'd go as far as to say the winner of Iowa wins the election. For me, it is actually the best barometer of opinion-where Missouri was 15 years ago.

So you believe Gore won the 2000 election then?

Actually he did win the popular vote, and electorially speaking was the closest race I know of.  So the 2000 race I think supports that thesis.  The reason that Iowa may be a good indicator for the  general election is that Iowa is that is part of the region that usually is the deciding factor for a race.  This region is in between the Great Lakes area, the north east, and part of the south.  I call it the election belt.  This region comprises of West Virginia, Virginia, Kentucky, Ohio, Missouri, Iowa Tennessee, and Arkansas .  No candidate has become president without wining most of these states. Bush won all of these states (except Iowa the first time), Clinton won all (except Virginia), and Bush and Reagan won all (except West Virginia).

[user60521]

It's a swing state in the sense that it does not always vote for the same party every election the way Massachusetts and Wyoming do. Whether it will be competitive in 2008 remains to be seen.

That was my original point.   That Iowa may not be as competitive as the previous race.  Same with Colorado, the Republicans seem to have a healthier lead there than in previous races.  I don't think that previous presidential races are good indicators because getting a sense of the trends requires you to go back several years.  And the reasons that people vote one way or another may not be relevant anymore.  The population of a state can also change significantly in the course of two or three presidential races.  So I think judging whether a state is a swing shouldn't rest to heavily on previous races.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I'd go as far as to say the winner of Iowa wins the election. For me, it is actually the best barometer of opinion-where Missouri was 15 years ago.

Well, it has been a pretty good bellwether recently, but it was totally off in 1988.

[WalterMitty]

Of course Iowa is a swing state. That it will vote Democratic in 2008 is merely further confirmation of the fact.

good answer.

[angus]

On Thursday in Iowa, Republicans drew roughly 108,000 voters for their caucus and Democrats 239,000.  This seems to support  the Democrats' claim that about 40% of their caucus participants were independents.  With that kind of attraction by independents to the Democratic party, is Iowa now a Democratic lean state? It would certainly make sense with the shift, especially in that region.  The average of general election polls in Iowa show the Democrats with 7 point lead.

Both houses of the legislature are controlled by the Democrats, but it is also a "right to work" state.  Actually, there's a bill nicknamed "fair share" which would allow non-union employees to be charged union dues if it becomes law.  Based on what I read, I understand that the bill failed in a previous legislative term in the state House of Representatives but may be re-introduced sometime this term.  The bill passed last year in the state senate and failed in the house.  The Democrats have a smaller majority in the house, and a shift of 3 votes is enough to defeat the bill.  I wrote to my rep, Doris Kelley, and asked her about it.  She wrote back calling herself a "pro-business Democrat" and says she has no plans to change her opposition vote, fortunately.  But she also said she thinks that they'll re-introduce the bill and that it'll be tougher this time because one of the pro-business Democrats retired and was replaced by a more collectivist Democrat.

There are apparently 600572 Democrats, 574571 Republicans, and 737054 unaffiliated registered voters in Iowa.  So if everyone votes with their party in the Presidential race, the Democrats have an advantage here.  Still, it's close.  And neither group outnumbers the unaffiliated voters.  That's the real swing set.  In any case, don't think that "swing state" and "lean democrat" are mutually orthogonal sets.  Folks are weary of the ivy-league, tax-cutting, country club wing of the GOP.  This was evidenced by the big turnout for Huckabee.  And, they're tired of the Republican foreign and domestic policy in general if local newspaper opinion-writers are to be believed.  Swing states are more fertile ground for Democrats.  In hard times, Democrats will have a built-in advantage in Iowa, as in other swing states.  Granted, house prices aren't plummeting in Iowa the way they are in the heavily populated East, but then again there was no bubble to burst.  House prices statewide rose an average of only about 3% per year over the past decade, much lower than the national average.  Still, there's high fuel prices, and in some cities unemployment rates are edging above 7 percent.  High by Iowa standards.  Unless we get ourselves into another dog-wagging tail of a war, and unless the Democrats manage to screw it up, they should win Iowa, along with most other swing states.

[JSojourner]

Definitely a swing state.  Only rivaled by Wisconsin in the region.

By region, the swing states are...

Northeast:  New Hampshire

Mid-Atlantic:   Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and now Virginia

South:   Arkansas, Florida

Midwest:  Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin

Plains:   None

West:   Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, maybe Oregon

[auburntiger]

I'd go as far as to say the winner of Iowa wins the election. For me, it is actually the best barometer of opinion-where Missouri was 15 years ago.

Well, it has been a pretty good bellwether recently, but it was totally off in 1988.

yeah, even more democrat than masachusetts!

[Platypus]

I'd go as far as to say the winner of Iowa wins the election. For me, it is actually the best barometer of opinion-where Missouri was 15 years ago.

Well, it has been a pretty good bellwether recently, but it was totally off in 1988.

yeah, even more democrat than masachusetts!

And that was 1988. As I said, it is where Missouri was 15 years ago. In a couple of decades (maybe even sooner) it may move further north to Minnesota-which was hardly a swing state in 1984. The bellwether is moving, slowly, north.

[Joe Biden 2020]

It is absolutely still a swing state with liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans.

[Smash255]

Somewhat of a swing state though I think at this point its more of a lean Dem state.

Another question is does any other state have as large of a gap between the Democrats and Republicans as Iowa does??   In most states where the Democratic base of the state is very liberal you have a more moderate Republican Party and where the Republican Party base is very conservative you have a more moderate Democratic Party.  In Iowa is just a bunch of very liberal Democrats mainly in the east & very conservative Republicans in the west.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Outside of Iowa City Iowa Democrats are hardly the most liberal. Minnesota fits that bill much more. Colorado probably moreso than any other state.

[auburntiger]

As far as Missouri goes, I expect it to be a swing state in 2008, even though it fell off the list of battlegrounds in 2004.

[War on Want]

Outside of Iowa City Iowa Democrats are hardly the most liberal. Minnesota fits that bill much more. Colorado probably moreso than any other state.

Yeah most Iowa Democrats are either Labor Democrats, or Moderate Democrats.