CO: Rasmussen: Udall leads Schaffer by 3 pts

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New Poll: Colorado Senator by Rasmussen on 2008-3-17

Summary: D: 46%, R: 43%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Adlai Stevenson]

Finally, Rasmussen publishes a meaningful poll on this race.  I think Udall will probably end up winning between 50%-52% of the vote to Schaffer's 47%-48%. 

[Adlai Stevenson]

Among unaffiliated voters, Udall led Shaffer 48%-37%. 

[Flying Dog]

It'll be Salazar V. Coors, redux.

[Keystone Phil]

So much for thinking this one was a lost cause...

[Padfoot]

With Obama as the nominee Udall would probably have a much easier time winning.  With Clinton it would be a tough battle.

[Sam Spade]

Finally, Rasmussen publishes a meaningful poll on this race.  I think Udall will probably end up winning between 50%-52% of the vote to Schaffer's 47%-48%. 

Uh, Rasmussen has posted "meaningful" polls on this race before, like last month.   Unless your "meaningful poll" means "poll with Udall ahead".

I see a probably MOE movement here (no big news here that I've read), but who knows.

[Person Man]

Schaffer won't get that much coattail from McCain. McCain is part of the hawk wing of the party and Schaffer is part of the...well look in my sig. Obama and Udall are more like peas in a pod.

[Sam Spade]

Schaffer won't get that much coattail from McCain. McCain is part of the hawk wing of the party and Schaffer is part of the...well look in my sig. Obama and Udall are more like peas in a pod.

You do realize that being a part of the fundie wing in Colorado is a positive for a GOP candidate?

[Adlai Stevenson]

Finally, Rasmussen publishes a meaningful poll on this race.  I think Udall will probably end up winning between 50%-52% of the vote to Schaffer's 47%-48%. 

Uh, Rasmussen has posted "meaningful" polls on this race before, like last month.   Unless your "meaningful poll" means "poll with Udall ahead".

I see a probably MOE movement here (no big news here that I've read), but who knows.

I didn't believe the polls showing Udall ahead.  As I have mentioned before, I think Rasmussen has a slight GOP polling bias (so we can hope that Udall is further ahead of Schaffer).  But a poll showing him 3% ahead to me is thus more meaningful than ones that have shown him about a point behind Schaffer. 

[Person Man]

Schaffer won't get that much coattail from McCain. McCain is part of the hawk wing of the party and Schaffer is part of the...well look in my sig. Obama and Udall are more like peas in a pod.

You do realize that being a part of the fundie wing in Colorado is a positive for a GOP candidate?

Yeah, but does it help you with indies?

[Sam Spade]

Schaffer won't get that much coattail from McCain. McCain is part of the hawk wing of the party and Schaffer is part of the...well look in my sig. Obama and Udall are more like peas in a pod.

You do realize that being a part of the fundie wing in Colorado is a positive for a GOP candidate?

Yeah, but does it help you with indies?

The Indys in Colorado, oddly enough, lean Democratic (moreso than you might think). 

The key to Republican success in Colorado in the 1990s (for example) was by turning out large numbers of Republicans (since they outnumber Indys (Dems by more actually)), which is usually achieved by having a good relationship with the fundie base.

[Lief 🗽]

I suspect that Udall's lead will grow as time goes on, much like the Ritter - Beauprez race in 2006.

[WalterMitty]

has udall given up his mormonism?

[Smash255]

Schaffer won't get that much coattail from McCain. McCain is part of the hawk wing of the party and Schaffer is part of the...well look in my sig. Obama and Udall are more like peas in a pod.

You do realize that being a part of the fundie wing in Colorado is a positive for a GOP candidate?

Yeah, but does it help you with indies?

The Indys in Colorado, oddly enough, lean Democratic (moreso than you might think). 

The key to Republican success in Colorado in the 1990s (for example) was by turning out large numbers of Republicans (since they outnumber Indys (Dems by more actually)), which is usually achieved by having a good relationship with the fundie base.

The Indy's in CO generally do lean Democrat, but throw a fundie up there and they move more towards Heavily Democrat.   Schaffer is going to have quite a bit of trouble in heavily Dem trending and very important Denver suburbs.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

2004 exit poll:

Democrats (29%): Kerry 93%, Bush 7%
Republicans (38%): Bush 94%, Kerry 6%
Independent (33%): Bush 45%, Kerry 52%

The indies don't appear to lean THAT Democratic. That's lower than the numbers they gave Kerry in Minnesota.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Schaffer won't get that much coattail from McCain. McCain is part of the hawk wing of the party and Schaffer is part of the...well look in my sig. Obama and Udall are more like peas in a pod.

Sounds about right.

I think Schaffer will get about 53% of the vote and outpoll Obama by about 2 points. Colorado has lots of liberals and conservatives but few moderates. It's probably one of the most polarized states. Just look at their congressional delegation!