Retirement #27: Tom Reynolds

[Meeker]

13.4% of the caucus and counting...   

NY Daily News:

GOP sources confirm that Rep. Tom Reynolds, a Western NY Congressman since 1999 and ex-NRCC chairman, will announce around noon tomorrow in Buffalo that he will not seek re-election this fall. Reynolds spokesman LD Platt did not return an e-mail seeking comment.

    Reynolds, who is also a former Assembly minority leader, has been pushing back against retirement rumors for some time now.

    But the recent NRCC fraud scandal - some of which took place on his watch - has made his re-election effort that much more difficult in an already tough year (increasingly Democratic state, presidential election etc).

    Were he to run, this would be the second election-year scandal in a row for Reynolds. The first, of course, was the Mark Foley page debacle.

    There is already one announced Democratic challenger in the 26th CD: Jon Powers, an Iraq War veteran. Independently-wealthy businessman Jack Davis, who ran against Reynolds in 2004 and 2006, is reportedly considering another run.

[Хahar 🤔]

Another? Wow.

[MarkWarner08]

I hinted at this awhile back. Looks like Jonathan Powers may join Pat Murphy as the second Iraq  war vet in Congress.

[MarkWarner08]

Many Republicans believe that Tom Reynolds was a Mark Foley scandal away from becoming the next Speaker of the House. Prior to L' Affaire Foley, Reynolds and the NRCC hada 50/50 chance of holding the House. If Reynolds had succeeded, he would've been the likely successor to Denny Hastert as Speaker.

If NY-26 is a shiny blue hue after November 4th, the seats of the last Speaker, Majority Leader and NRCC chairs will have all gone Democratic.  Truly incredible.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow, the GOP could be reduced to 4/29 seats in New York. Though I think taking this one is unlikely.

[Torie]

The GOP is probably in better shape here with Reynolds gone.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Wow, the GOP could be reduced to 4/29 seats in New York. Though I think taking this one is unlikely.

Although Bush carried it 51%-44% in 2000 and 55%-43% in 2004, I don't see why not.  NY-26 is only rated 'R+3' - although I realise for New York that is quite Republican.  If Clinton (or Obama for that matter) is at the top of the ticket, then NY-26 is definitely vulnerable with the right Democratic candidate which I think Davis probably is (having progressively got 44% and 48%) or indeed this war veteran.  It depends on who the Republicans would run, what is their bench like in this District? 

[MarkWarner08]

The GOP is probably in better shape here with Reynolds gone.

Please explain your reasoning. Reynolds was a prodigious fundraiser who was very adept at the sort  of retail politicking that wins votes in Upstate NY. If ability to bring home pork is correlated with a Congressman's amount of political capital, Ways and Means member Reynolds must've stockpiled  a treasure trove of political capital. His local connections helped him survive the Foley scandal; there's little doubt in my mind he would've been an overwhelming favorite this time.

 I don't see how replacing him with an unknown (or less well-known in much of the district) quantity will help Republicans in the general election.

[AndrewTX]

I never really had a problem with the guy, thought he did fairly well.

[Torie]

Reynolds is just tarnished as the article says, and frankly when I see him on the tube, he comes across as a hack, and not very likable.

[JSojourner]

The GOP is probably in better shape here with Reynolds gone.

Bingo.  Like getting rid of Young in Alaska.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Reynolds underperformed in 2004 as well. He's just not a good candidate. The GOP is better off without him.

[Daniel Adams]

Oh, good riddance. The GOP needs to remove these corrupt and tarnished congressmen if it wants to start winning elections. Remember that in 2006, the perceived corruption of Republicans in Congress was one of the major issues that led to the Democratic victory.

[Sam Spade]

Really depends on who the GOP candidate is here.  The seat is gerrymandered extremely well for a competent Republican should one show up.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Really depends on who the GOP candidate is here.  The seat is gerrymandered extremely well for a competent Republican should one show up.

It'll be easier for the Republicans if Jack Davis is the Democratic nominee again. He's a horrible, horrible candidate.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Congressman Tom Reynolds (R), former Chair of the NRCC, announced Thursday he will not seek re-election. Reynolds faced tough contests in 2004 and 2006 against wealth businessman Jack Davis (D) -- and appears to be facing a possibly tougher contest against Iraq War veteran Jon Powers (D) this year. Sources tell Politics1 that a terrible upstate economy, an unpopular war and a hard-charging opponent caused Reynolds to make his retirement decision in this swing district. "It’s time, for many reasons, to make the move now. There's no one piece, I just knew it was time," explained Reynolds, in his announcement. Reynolds is the 29th House Republican to announce his retirement or resignation during this Congress. NY GOP insiders praise Reynolds -- a former county and state legislator -- as a capable legislative tactician and a canny pol with a real talent for organizing and fundraising. Friends of Reynolds say they believe he plans to run for statewide office -- possibly Governor -- in 2010. State Senator George Maziarz appears to be the likely GOP candidate for the CD-26 seat, as his campaign account already has over $750,000 banked. Maziarz is a close ally of State Senate Majority Leader Joe Bruno (R) -- the new Acting Lieutenant Governor -- but is a critic of Bruno's Communications Director John McArdle (who Maziarz recently called "a rodent" because of the aide's imperious and autocratic style).

http://www.politics1.com/

[Eraserhead]

The GOP is probably in better shape here with Reynolds gone.

Bingo.  Like getting rid of Young in Alaska.

I agree with both you. This is actually fairly bad news for us.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

This was R+3 in 2004, but what'll it be in 2008 with McCain on the ballot?  R+5 or 6, maybe?  Obama's lead in the state according to Quinnipiac is "only" 11%.

[Brittain33]

David Bellavia, a war veteran and one of the potential Republican nominees for this seat, called Barack Obama "Tiger Woods" yesterday when introducing John McCain to a pro-war rally.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I met him several years ago at a Blackburn fundraiser - I didn't appreciate it when he chirped about how he was the only conservative NY Republican congressman or some such nonsense.