Gallup Daily Tracking Poll Thread

[War on Want]

I am surprised there are no movements after Clinton's gaffe on Bobby Kennedy.

[Sam Spade]

FYI, do not trust polls done over the Memorial Day weekend.  okthx.

[Democratic Hawk]

Six in 10 Democrats Confident of Victory in 2008 Election (May 27, 2008)

Only 39% of Republicans are confident the GOP will win

Confident Own Party Will Win Presidential Election This November

Democrat/Democrat-leaners: Confident 61%; Not Confident 37%

Republican/ Republican-leaners: Confident 39%; Not Confident 58%

Gallup Poll, May 19-21, 2008

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107524/Six-Democrats-Confident-Victory-2008-Election.aspx

I wish I shared Democrats' confidence; but, right now, I don't

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday 27 May, 2008

.....

Obama - 51% (+1)
Clinton - 43% (-2)

.....

McCain - 47% (-)
Obama - 44% (-1)

Clinton - 48% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

[elcorazon]

you think there's already some buyer's remorse?  seems like every election year the candidate who lost the battle starts looking better as soon as it's clear they won't be the nominee.  That said, I can't imagine that's true already in this year's election.  but, maybe.

[Democratic Hawk]

you think there's already some buyer's remorse?  seems like every election year the candidate who lost the battle starts looking better as soon as it's clear they won't be the nominee.  That said, I can't imagine that's true already in this year's election.  but, maybe.

This might explain what is going on:

One possible answer:

Obama is currently behind McCain due to the lingering resentment of Clinton supporters who feel that he robbed their candidate from the nomination she deserved.  Obama supporters no longer feel such a resentment (as they feel she is no longer a serious threat for the nomination) and are willing to support her in a (in their minds completely hypothetical) matchup against McCain because of this. 

If the above explanation is correct, the poll numbers would be reversed if Clinton actually became the nominee.

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Hillary Clinton's Swing State Advantage (May 28, 2008)

Clinton says her primary wins are indicative of general-election results

All States

States Where Clinton Won Greater Share of Popular Vote in 2008 Democratic Primary/Caucus Elections - 20 states, including FL & MI

Clinton 50%; McCain 43%; Other/Undecided 7%

McCain 46%; Obama 45%; Other/Undecided 9%

States Where Obama Won Greater Share of Popular Vote in 2008 Democratic Primary/Caucus Elections - 28 states, including DC

McCain 47%; Clinton 45%; Other/Undecided 8%

McCain 46%; Obama 45%; Other/Undecided 8%

Swing States

Swing States Where Clinton Won Greater Share of Popular Vote in 2008 Democratic Primary/Caucus Elections - 8 states: NV, PA, OH, NH, NM, AR, FL & MI

Clinton 49%; McCain 43%; Other/Undecided 9%

McCain 46%; Obama 43%; Other/Undecided 11%

- excluding FL & MI

Clinton 51%; McCain 41%; Other/Undecided 8%

McCain 46%; Obama 43%; Other/Undecided 11%

Swing States Where Obama Won Greater Share of Popular Vote in 2008 Democratic Primary/Caucus Elections - 6 states: CO, OR, MN, IA, WI & MO

McCain 46%; Clinton 45%; Other/Undecided 9%

Obama 49%; McCain 41%; Other/Undecided 9%

May 12-15, 2008, Gallup Poll Daily tracking

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107539/Hillary-Clintons-SwingState-Advantage.aspx

Dave

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday 28 May, 2008

.....

Obama - 50% (-1)
Clinton - 44% (+1)

.....

McCain - 46% (-1)
Obama - 45% (+1)

Clinton - 48% (-)
McCain - 44% (-1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Thursday 29 May, 2008

.....

Obama - 52% (+2)
Clinton - 42% (-2)

.....

Obama - 46% (+1)
McCain - 45% (-1)

Clinton - 47% (-1)
McCain - 45% (+1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday 30 May, 2008

.....

Obama - 52% (-)
Clinton - 42% (-)

.....

Obama - 46% (-)
McCain - 45% (-)

Clinton - 47% (-)
McCain - 45% (-)

[exopolitician]

He actually leads McCain now...shocking.

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday 1 June, 2008

.....

Obama - 52% (-)
Clinton - 42% (-)

.....

Obama - 46% (-)
McCain - 45% (-)

Clinton - 47% (-)
McCain - 45% (-)

[Tender Branson]

Clinton's previous advantage over McCain, compared with Obama, seems to fade away. Rasmussen meanwhile even shows her in a worse shape than Obama ...

[Democratic Hawk]

Monday 2 June, 2008

.....

Obama - 51% (-1)
Clinton - 41% (-1)

.....

Obama - 46% (-)
McCain - 46% (+1)

Clinton - 47% (-)
McCain - 45% (-)

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday 3 June, 2008

.....

Obama - 52% (+1)
Clinton - 43% (+2)

.....

McCain - 46% (-)
Obama - 45% (-1)

Clinton - 46% (-1)
McCain - 45% (-)

[Sam Spade]

This is a Vorlon question, which I don't expect an answer, but will ask anyways.

Is Gallup weighting their daily tracking poll this year?  As opposed to their normal "one-shot" polls.

[Democratic Hawk]

Wednesday 4 June, 2008

.....

Obama - 52% (-)
Clinton - 43% (-)

.....

McCain - 46% (-)
Obama - 45% (-)

Clinton - 48% (+2)
McCain - 45% (-)

I'm starting a new thread now but leaving this open to give Vorlon et al. to answer Sam's question

Dave