Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 25, 2014, 12:36:32 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2008 Elections
| | |-+  2008 U.S. Presidential Primary Election Polls
| | | |-+  PA-Rasmussen: Clinton's lead down to 10
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Author Topic: PA-Rasmussen: Clinton's lead down to 10  (Read 2437 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34623
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« on: March 25, 2008, 10:08:26 am »
Ignore

Hillary Clinton - 49%
Barack Obama - 39%
Not Sure - 12%

In the Keystone State, Clinton is now viewed favorably by 68% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Thatís down from 76% in the previous survey. Obama is viewed favorably by 71%, a figure that is little changed from 71% earlier in the month.

If Obama wins the Democratic nomination, just 55% of Clinton voters say they are even somewhat likely to vote for him against John McCain. Thatís down two points from 57%.

If Clinton is the nominee, just 55% of Obama voters say they are at least somewhat likely to vote for her against McCain. Thatís down nine points from 64%.

....

This telephone survey of 690 Likely Democratic Primary Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 24, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Link
Logged
Volatilesaff
MATCHU[D]
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6341
United States


View Profile
« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2008, 10:11:08 am »
Ignore

Quoi? :O
Logged

Warren '16!
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34623
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -7.10, S: -6.09

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2008, 10:12:21 am »
Ignore

Strange, but very good news if true. Wink

Iīm waiting for PPP though to see what they are saying ...
Logged
© tweed
Miamiu1027
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 35678
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.52, S: -8.00

View Profile
« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2008, 10:22:01 am »
Ignore

it's hard to believe we still have nearly a month to go before PA since it seems like we've been exclusively tracking it for so long.
Logged

in a mirror, dimly lit
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14170


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2008, 11:19:26 am »
Ignore

Will Obama ever recover from the Wright scandal?

Wait for more to see if it's an outlier of course, but happy day for now.
Logged
Ben.
Ben
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4219


View Profile
« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2008, 11:31:09 am »
Ignore

Wait for more to see if it's an outlier of course...

Obama Campaign has only really got cracking at PA in the last week or so, plus after the disaster of the Wright affair Obama's speech on race has had nearly universal praise from every news outlet... its not a bad place to begin his recovery from, whats more the Obama campaign would be very keen to enhance it's status in PA as the underdog (somthing they allowed to slip in OH and TX) hence maybe why the last few weeks since March 5th have seen the Obama campaign running a much more low profile effort in PA... it'll be interesting to see what happens now they have to head into a higher gear.
Logged

.Britainís Mayor.
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 33587


View Profile
« Reply #6 on: March 25, 2008, 04:37:41 pm »
Ignore

A 10-point loss is about the barrier between a "Clinton victory" and an "Obama victory." If Obama can keep it closer, he "wins", but if Clinton can get the margin above 10, she "wins."
Logged

Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39062
United States


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: March 25, 2008, 04:44:28 pm »
Ignore

My nig is making a comeback.
Logged

Gustaf
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 26906


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

View Profile
« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2008, 04:46:58 pm »
Ignore

Uh-oh, for Clinton. She probably needs more than this.
Logged

This place really has become a cesspool of degenerate whores...

Economic score: +0.9
Social score: -2.61

In MN for fantasy stuff, member of the most recently dissolved centrist party.
Sibboleth
Realpolitik
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 56841
Saint Helena


View Profile WWW
« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2008, 04:51:17 pm »
Ignore

The change from the last poll is pretty small, but might be large enough to not be noise.
Logged

"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52236


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: March 25, 2008, 06:47:38 pm »
Ignore

My nig is making a comeback.

I <3 the double standards.
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
bullmoose88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14544


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: March 25, 2008, 06:55:58 pm »
Ignore

My dad has done the unthinkable and re-registered as a democrat to vote for Obama.

Hell hath officially frozen over.
Logged

A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.

According to one poster, I represent a...

Dying bread of Americans.
Beet
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16060


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: March 25, 2008, 07:06:07 pm »
Ignore

My dad has done the unthinkable and re-registered as a democrat to vote for Obama.

Hell hath officially frozen over.

But he has no chance of getting  your dad's vote in the general, I presume?
Logged

bullmoose88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14544


View Profile
« Reply #13 on: March 25, 2008, 07:10:24 pm »
Ignore

My dad has done the unthinkable and re-registered as a democrat to vote for Obama.

Hell hath officially frozen over.

But he has no chance of getting  your dad's vote in the general, I presume?

Well...I don't know.  My dad is fairly conservative in some respects (taxes, law and order) but tolerant too.

I'd say right now he's likely to vote for McCain, but if my mom switches her eventual november support from McCain (entirely possible depending on how the campaign goes) he may as well.

They both like Obama...so its possible, although if I had to say right now, he'd still support McCain.
Logged

A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.

According to one poster, I represent a...

Dying bread of Americans.
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52236


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: March 25, 2008, 07:11:10 pm »
Ignore

My dad has done the unthinkable and re-registered as a democrat to vote for Obama.

Hell hath officially frozen over.

But he has no chance of getting  your dad's vote in the general, I presume?

Well...I don't know.  My dad is fairly conservative in some respects (taxes, law and order) but tolerant too.

I'd say right now he's likely to vote for McCain, but if my mom switches her eventual november support from McCain (entirely possible depending on how the campaign goes) he may as well.

They both like Obama...so its possible, although if I had to say right now, he'd still support McCain.

Does he have another registration ready for after the primary? If not, I'll make sure he gets one.  Wink
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
bullmoose88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14544


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: March 25, 2008, 07:12:25 pm »
Ignore

My dad has done the unthinkable and re-registered as a democrat to vote for Obama.

Hell hath officially frozen over.

But he has no chance of getting  your dad's vote in the general, I presume?

Well...I don't know.  My dad is fairly conservative in some respects (taxes, law and order) but tolerant too.

I'd say right now he's likely to vote for McCain, but if my mom switches her eventual november support from McCain (entirely possible depending on how the campaign goes) he may as well.

They both like Obama...so its possible, although if I had to say right now, he'd still support McCain.

Does he have another registration ready for after the primary? If not, I'll make sure he gets one.  Wink
Oh...mom and pa will surely switch back to the GOP, as will their friends. Don't worry about that, but do worry about them actually voting for Obama if John McCain goes too far right or plays dirty.  (which we feel he won't).
Logged

A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.

According to one poster, I represent a...

Dying bread of Americans.
Padfoot
padfoot714
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4425
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: -6.96

P P P

View Profile
« Reply #16 on: March 25, 2008, 08:31:05 pm »
Ignore

Hillary Clinton - 49%
Barack Obama - 39%
Not Sure - 12%


Rasmussen has been showing a slow upward tick for Obama in conjunction with a slow downward tick for Clinton since the beginning of the month:

March 5th
Clinton 52%
Obama 37%

March 12th
Clinton 51%
Obama 38%

March 24th
Clinton 49%
Obama 39%

Hopefully this trend will continue Smiley
Logged

Aizen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4540


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -9.22

View Profile
« Reply #17 on: March 25, 2008, 10:18:55 pm »
Ignore

Even if the polls show Obama and Clinton almost tied (like in Ohio) Obama will still lose by like 10 points (like in Ohio)
Logged
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 33587


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: March 25, 2008, 11:05:10 pm »
Ignore

Even if the polls show Obama and Clinton almost tied (like in Ohio) Obama will still lose by like 10 points (like in Ohio)
Only Zogby showed Ohio tied. All the other pollsters got it right.
Logged

Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14670
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #19 on: March 25, 2008, 11:09:46 pm »
Ignore

Even if the polls show Obama and Clinton almost tied (like in Ohio) Obama will still lose by like 10 points (like in Ohio)

Jay Cost of RCP's Horse Race Blog has said that Clinton, more or less, should, given the demographics, win PA by much the same margin as she did OH

From http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/

Keep an eye on Bucks and Montgomery counties. Frequently, Philadelphia and its suburbs report their returns before the rest of the commonwealth. If that holds true for the April 22nd primary - the results here should give us a sense of what kind of night we are in for. If Obama scores big wins in one or both, the final results might be close. If Clinton pulls roughly even with him, or beats him outright - she should have a good night.

His analysis covers the whole state and how he expects each congressional district will go

Dave
« Last Edit: March 25, 2008, 11:16:17 pm by Democratic 'Hawk' »Logged

Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

Registered in Georgia for Fantasy Politics
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52236


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: March 25, 2008, 11:17:11 pm »
Ignore

Even if the polls show Obama and Clinton almost tied (like in Ohio) Obama will still lose by like 10 points (like in Ohio)

Jay Cost of RCP's Horse Race Blog has said that Clinton, more or less, should, given the demographics, win PA by much the same margin as she did OH

From http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/

Keep an eye on Bucks and Montgomery counties. Frequently, Philadelphia and its suburbs report their returns before the rest of the commonwealth. If that holds true for the April 22nd primary - the results here should give us a sense of what kind of night we are in for. If Obama scores big wins in one or both, the final results might be close. If Clinton pulls roughly even with him, or beats him outright - she should have a good night.

His analysis covers the whole state and how he expects each congressional district will go

Dave

She should have a good night if she wins Bucks or Montco? Uh, no. She'd have an absolute landslide. If he doesn't win those two SE PA counties, it will be a horrible night for him.
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
Democratic Hawk
LucysBeau
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14670
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: March 25, 2008, 11:21:03 pm »
Ignore

Even if the polls show Obama and Clinton almost tied (like in Ohio) Obama will still lose by like 10 points (like in Ohio)

Jay Cost of RCP's Horse Race Blog has said that Clinton, more or less, should, given the demographics, win PA by much the same margin as she did OH

From http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/

Keep an eye on Bucks and Montgomery counties. Frequently, Philadelphia and its suburbs report their returns before the rest of the commonwealth. If that holds true for the April 22nd primary - the results here should give us a sense of what kind of night we are in for. If Obama scores big wins in one or both, the final results might be close. If Clinton pulls roughly even with him, or beats him outright - she should have a good night.

His analysis covers the whole state and how he expects each congressional district will go

Dave

She should have a good night if she wins Bucks or Montco? Uh, no. She'd have an absolute landslide. If he doesn't win those two SE PA counties, it will be a horrible night for him.

And, seemingly, we'll know early. Given it's a closed primary, are Democrats in those counties particularly affluent?

Dave
Logged

Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

Registered in Georgia for Fantasy Politics
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52236


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: March 25, 2008, 11:22:50 pm »
Ignore

And, seemingly, we'll know early. Given it's a closed primary, are Democrats in those counties particularly affluent?

Dave

Yes but lower Bucks is blue collar and Montco has some heavily Hispanic areas in Norristown (the county's biggest city).
Logged

The soon-to-be-re-elected Kings of Kansas.
bullmoose88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14544


View Profile
« Reply #23 on: March 26, 2008, 12:15:39 am »
Ignore

Even if the polls show Obama and Clinton almost tied (like in Ohio) Obama will still lose by like 10 points (like in Ohio)

Jay Cost of RCP's Horse Race Blog has said that Clinton, more or less, should, given the demographics, win PA by much the same margin as she did OH

From http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/

Keep an eye on Bucks and Montgomery counties. Frequently, Philadelphia and its suburbs report their returns before the rest of the commonwealth. If that holds true for the April 22nd primary - the results here should give us a sense of what kind of night we are in for. If Obama scores big wins in one or both, the final results might be close. If Clinton pulls roughly even with him, or beats him outright - she should have a good night.

His analysis covers the whole state and how he expects each congressional district will go

Dave

She should have a good night if she wins Bucks or Montco? Uh, no. She'd have an absolute landslide. If he doesn't win those two SE PA counties, it will be a horrible night for him.

And, seemingly, we'll know early. Given it's a closed primary, are Democrats in those counties particularly affluent?

Dave

As phil said...I also posted about Bucks earlier this month, you may wish to read it (if I say so myself)

If He's not absolutely killing hillary in Montco and not givin her a good whippin in bucks...he's in trouble...not just of losing the state, but of keeping it reasonably close with the Hillster.

For Obama to win the state, which is unlikely, or to have a better than average night, he's going to need to perform well in Delaware and Chester too, and give Hillary a run for her money in the exurban areas outside of Philly.  Northeast PA is a lost cause and I dont think the T area dems will be obama friendly either, just as rural maryland and upstate new york weren't.

Obama needs to run strongly in Pittsburgh and in the more affluent suburbs which may be too Republican right now to have many voters, the democrats out there don't really fit his typical voter mold...which may change of course.
Logged

A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.

According to one poster, I represent a...

Dying bread of Americans.
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 39062
United States


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: March 26, 2008, 12:30:51 am »
Ignore

My nig is making a comeback.

Ignored.

Don't care.
Logged

Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines