NC-PPP: Obama regains 20-point lead over Clinton

[Tender Branson]

Obama regains large lead

Raleigh, N.C. – After a week in which Barack Obama made several appearances in North Carolina and confronted the controversy with his pastor by making a major speech on race, he has expanded his lead in North Carolina to 21 points.

Obama leads Clinton 55-34 in the state. His gains were particularly strong in the Triangle, the media market where his major speech on the war last week in Fayetteville got the greatest amount of attention.

Obama also pulled within a 47-40 margin of Clinton with white voters after trailing Clinton 56-30 last week, an indication that his speech on race in Philadelphia last week may have earned him some points.

“The rule of thumb in this Presidential race is that if you don’t like how things are going, just wait a week and they’ll turn around,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Obama has really improved his standing in North Carolina by visiting the state and openly taking on some of the controversies swirling around his campaign.”

In the Governor’s race Richard Moore has pulled within seven points of Bev Perdue after launching his first negative ad. She leads 41-34. The poll also showed that 50% of likely voters say there is a chance they could change their votes between now and the election.

Kay Hagan continues to maintain a double digit lead over Jim Neal in the primary for US Senate, 19-9. 61% of voters remain undecided in that race. For the Lieutenant Governor’s race, Walter Dalton leads at 10% followed by Dan Besse and Pat Smathers at 7%, and Hampton Dellinger at 6%.

PPP surveyed 673 likely Democratic primary voters on March 24th. The survey’s margin of error is +/- 3.8%. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_032508.pdf

[Tender Branson]

This day is getting better and better ...

[Josh/Devilman88]

And they said it will be close.

[Joe Republic]

Obama jumps 20 points in a week?

[Tender Branson]

Obama jumps 20 points in a week?

Yepp. And if we take into account the average of the 3 polls that were conducted on March 16 in PA, Obama also jumped 8 points in Pennsylvania since last week ...

[Gustaf]

Note though that this large swing in North Carolina is within the PPP context. I suspect this says more about PPP than about North Carolina. (which of course means that their last poll should not be taken as a sign of a Clinton comeback either. The more I see of PPP the more sceptical I get)

[Josh/Devilman88]

Note though that this large swing in North Carolina is within the PPP context. I suspect this says more about PPP than about North Carolina. (which of course means that their last poll should not be taken as a sign of a Clinton comeback either. The more I see of PPP the more sceptical I get)

Well they are a new polling group so they still may have some bugs to work out. But they have done a good job in the past.

[Prez Duke]

I thought PPP polls were always thrown out. I guess not in this case ...


I would be very surprised if he got 40% of the white vote in NC. 30-35% max. I do believe he'll win the state, but not by 20%.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I thought PPP polls were always thrown out. I guess not in this case ...

I don't understand why we would, considering they haven't screwed up a race badly yet.  Underestimating Obama in Georgia appears to be their greatest sin thus far.

[Gustaf]

I thought PPP polls were always thrown out. I guess not in this case ...

I don't understand why we would, considering they haven't screwed up a race badly yet.  Underestimating Obama in Georgia appears to be their greatest sin thus far.

They seem to be very volatile in their polling. That always makes me a bit suspicious.

[Joe Republic]

I thought PPP polls were always thrown out. I guess not in this case ...

I don't understand why we would, considering they haven't screwed up a race badly yet.  Underestimating Obama in Georgia appears to be their greatest sin thus far.

They seem to be very volatile in their polling. That always makes me a bit suspicious.

I haven't seen any evidence of PPP volatility until today.  Their results are otherwise pretty consistent with trends:

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?type=src&source_id=108

[Gustaf]

I thought PPP polls were always thrown out. I guess not in this case ...

I don't understand why we would, considering they haven't screwed up a race badly yet.  Underestimating Obama in Georgia appears to be their greatest sin thus far.

They seem to be very volatile in their polling. That always makes me a bit suspicious.

I haven't seen any evidence of PPP volatility until today.  Their results are otherwise pretty consistent with trends:

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?type=src&source_id=108

It was the same in Wisconsin, with Obama suddenly jumping 9% in 6 days. Apart from that they've only really polled Georgia (which they blew), New York and Tennessee (where they did good) and South Carolina (where they were also ok, sort of). As I just said in another thread I did have them a bit confused with Insider Advantage, for some reason. So they're not that bad, I guess. But I prefer Rasmussen and SUSA.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

PPP has been great so far this year.

[Gustaf]

PPP has been great so far this year.

Again, great is an exaggeration, imo. They haven't polled enough races to allow us to call them either way. But I retract my earlier statement, that was a mistake on my part.

[Joe Republic]

It was the same in Wisconsin, with Obama suddenly jumping 9% in 6 days.

PPP only polled Wisconsin twice.  They showed Obama up 11 on Feb 12th, and then up 13 on Feb 17th.

[All life is a blur of Republicans and meat.]

The white vote is within 7 points. I really do think the white vote will closer here than in PA.

[Gustaf]

It was the same in Wisconsin, with Obama suddenly jumping 9% in 6 days.

PPP only polled Wisconsin twice.  They showed Obama up 11 on Feb 12th, and then up 13 on Feb 17th.

Ahem...I don't think I will ever discuss PPP ever again. It seems to be cursed for me. This time I thought that NC poll was a WI poll for some reason. Well...never mind me, I'll just toddle along.

[J. J.]

PPP has been great so far this year.

PPP was right on the money with WI.

[Beet]

This is like that Zogby poll that had Obama going from +6 to +13 in California in 1 day.

I don't see anything that has happened that could explain a shift like this. Though, if this poll is anything close to true, Clinton is finished. She may limp through the end of May and through to Puerto Rico, but then the super delegates will close it out.

[Sibboleth]

Either this poll is wrong or PPP's previous poll of NC is wrong.

[Gustaf]

The white vote is within 7 points. I really do think the white vote will closer here than in PA.

Seriously? Why on earth would that happen? Obama will win North Carolina, if he does, largely on the strength of the black vote. There are still some Jessecrats out there and they sure ain't gonna vote for the black man. Obama will probably not get blown away among whites like in the Deep South, but I doubt he does better than in Northern states.

[Smash255]

The white vote is within 7 points. I really do think the white vote will closer here than in PA.

Seriously? Why on earth would that happen? Obama will win North Carolina, if he does, largely on the strength of the black vote. There are still some Jessecrats out there and they sure ain't gonna vote for the black man. Obama will probably not get blown away among whites like in the Deep South, but I doubt he does better than in Northern states.

You have many white liberals from the northeast which have moved down to the Raleigh, Charlotte & greensboro areas, you also have Asheville which is quite liberal.  Within 7% seems a bit too close, but I think he will be closer with the white vote in NC than most people think he will.

[Gustaf]

The white vote is within 7 points. I really do think the white vote will closer here than in PA.

Seriously? Why on earth would that happen? Obama will win North Carolina, if he does, largely on the strength of the black vote. There are still some Jessecrats out there and they sure ain't gonna vote for the black man. Obama will probably not get blown away among whites like in the Deep South, but I doubt he does better than in Northern states.

You have many white liberals from the northeast which have moved down to the Raleigh, Charlotte & greensboro areas, you also have Asheville which is quite liberal.  Within 7% seems a bit too close, but I think he will be closer with the white vote in NC than most people think he will.

I'm well aware of that. Hence:

Obama will probably not get blown away among whites like in the Deep South

I still doubt there are more Northern liberals in a Southern Republican state than in a Northern Democratic state.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Note though that this large swing in North Carolina is within the PPP context. I suspect this says more about PPP than about North Carolina. (which of course means that their last poll should not be taken as a sign of a Clinton comeback either. The more I see of PPP the more sceptical I get)

PPP blew everyone else out of the water in Wisconsin and haven't been really off in any state so far.

[Gustaf]

Note though that this large swing in North Carolina is within the PPP context. I suspect this says more about PPP than about North Carolina. (which of course means that their last poll should not be taken as a sign of a Clinton comeback either. The more I see of PPP the more sceptical I get)

PPP blew everyone else out of the water in Wisconsin and haven't been really off in any state so far.

http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5520080218001

They were off by 25% in Georgia. But I already explained that I confused them with IA. Among other things...