Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 21, 2014, 08:42:06 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2008 Elections
| | |-+  virginia.
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] Print
Author Topic: virginia.  (Read 10387 times)
Robespierre's Jaw
Senator Conor Flynn
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8507
Ireland, Republic of


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -8.35

View Profile
« Reply #50 on: March 26, 2008, 04:49:32 pm »
Ignore

Virginia will be closer in 2008 than in the last two presidential elections, however it will still result in victory for Senator McCain come election day. My predictions for the Presidential race in Virginia would be this:

McCain (R): 52%
Obama (D): 47%
Others: (O): 1%
Logged



Here's to the State of Richard Nixon

Some things are better left covered up.
agcatter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3751


View Profile
« Reply #51 on: March 26, 2008, 04:52:38 pm »
Ignore

about right
Logged
bullmoose88
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14538


View Profile
« Reply #52 on: March 26, 2008, 05:38:03 pm »
Ignore

The state is trending Democratic, it was 5.7% more GOP than the national average in 2004, following that same trend it puts it @ 3% more GOP than the national average.  If anything the trend in Virginia towards the Democrats has picked up even more steam since 2004, so the 04-08 trend against the national average would likely be even heavier than the 00-04 trend.  Top that off with higher black turnout as well with Obama having more appeal than the typical Democrat would in leftward FLYING Northern Virginia.  In VA I would say Hillary could be within 3 points of the national average and possibly 2, Obama looks like he can very well be even with the national average.




My math and econometrics professors always warned against taking trends from the last data point or two and extrapolating forward.

It would be more conservative and wiser to say take the trend back from say 88 or 92 and seeing where that put VA.


 In 96 it was 10.46% more GOP than nationally, 8.54% in 2000 & 5.74% in 04.  So the trend of 2-3 points nationally has been going on since 96.  Just looking at what is going on in Virginia, and Northern VA in particular it looks like the Dem trend has even gained more steam.  A trend doen't mean the trend will continue, but their is no evidence that the trend in VA is reversing itself, slowing down, and if anything it seems like the trend is picking up steam.

Second, I don't know if I totally buy into the idea of using how much more an area was (or less) than the national (or state) average.

Say for instance Candidate X in 1988 in State Y had 55% of the vote when he had 52% nationally, but 4 years later had 55% in state Y but 57% nationally...is the state any more or less favorable to his party than it was 4 years before?

What your doing does have some use and is telling, but like every other statistic, it needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
Logged

A Socially Liberal, Fiscally Conservative NE Republican with some Left-Libertarian/3rd Way Leanings. Simply, a Rockefeller Republican.

According to one poster, I represent a...

Dying bread of Americans.
Smash255
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14370


View Profile
« Reply #53 on: March 26, 2008, 08:10:43 pm »
Ignore

The state is trending Democratic, it was 5.7% more GOP than the national average in 2004, following that same trend it puts it @ 3% more GOP than the national average.  If anything the trend in Virginia towards the Democrats has picked up even more steam since 2004, so the 04-08 trend against the national average would likely be even heavier than the 00-04 trend.  Top that off with higher black turnout as well with Obama having more appeal than the typical Democrat would in leftward FLYING Northern Virginia.  In VA I would say Hillary could be within 3 points of the national average and possibly 2, Obama looks like he can very well be even with the national average.




My math and econometrics professors always warned against taking trends from the last data point or two and extrapolating forward.

It would be more conservative and wiser to say take the trend back from say 88 or 92 and seeing where that put VA.


 In 96 it was 10.46% more GOP than nationally, 8.54% in 2000 & 5.74% in 04.  So the trend of 2-3 points nationally has been going on since 96.  Just looking at what is going on in Virginia, and Northern VA in particular it looks like the Dem trend has even gained more steam.  A trend doen't mean the trend will continue, but their is no evidence that the trend in VA is reversing itself, slowing down, and if anything it seems like the trend is picking up steam.

Second, I don't know if I totally buy into the idea of using how much more an area was (or less) than the national (or state) average.

Say for instance Candidate X in 1988 in State Y had 55% of the vote when he had 52% nationally, but 4 years later had 55% in state Y but 57% nationally...is the state any more or less favorable to his party than it was 4 years before?

What your doing does have some use and is telling, but like every other statistic, it needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

I'm not saying its full proof by any means, nothing is, but its probably the best barometer to show where a state actually stands.
Logged

MODU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22107
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #54 on: March 26, 2008, 08:54:47 pm »
Ignore


Obama definitely has the better chance of winning VA than Killary, but it would take a nation-wide landslide on Obama's side to definitely claim VA.  Killary would have had a better shot at winning the state if she wasn't "Clinton," since she does pander to the moderates much more than any other leftist, since VA is definitely a Blue Dog state.  However, as history shows, the Democrats rarely put forward a Blue Dog candidate, which is why it tends to go GOP, even when the state-level races go to the Democrats.
Logged

Attention bloggers:  Join SeededBuzz and gain access to thousands of new readers.  Simply paste a link and summary of your article for community members to link back to, drawing more activity to your site.  Membership is FREE!

Visit MODU's Musings


"Anybody who doesn't appreciate what America has done and President Bush, let them go to hell." - Betty Dawisha, Iraqi vote
MarkWarner08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5846


View Profile
« Reply #55 on: March 26, 2008, 10:27:44 pm »
Ignore


Obama definitely has the better chance of winning VA than Killary, but it would take a nation-wide landslide on Obama's side to definitely claim VA.  Killary would have had a better shot at winning the state if she wasn't "Clinton," since she does pander to the moderates much more than any other leftist, since VA is definitely a Blue Dog state.  However, as history shows, the Democrats rarely put forward a Blue Dog candidate, which is why it tends to go GOP, even when the state-level races go to the Democrats.
Which is exactly why Mark Warner would've been the perfect Democratic candidate for VA. If he runs in 2012, he might also be competitive in NC.
Logged

joshc99
Newbie
*
Posts: 1
View Profile
« Reply #56 on: June 23, 2011, 07:35:35 pm »
Ignore

I think it's interesting that virtually every prediction in this thread turned out wrong. Not only did Obama win by 6.3% (only 1.0% worse than nationally), but he actually lost Buchanan County. In fact, he lost quite a few Appalachian counties where Clinton won upwards of 80% of the vote.
Logged
DS0816
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1097
View Profile
« Reply #57 on: June 25, 2011, 10:05:22 am »
Ignore

I think it's interesting that virtually every prediction in this thread turned out wrong. Not only did Obama win by 6.3% (only 1.0% worse than nationally), but he actually lost Buchanan County. In fact, he lost quite a few Appalachian counties where Clinton won upwards of 80% of the vote.

Virginia was No. 1 in being closest to reflecting President Obama's national margin. A spread of 0.96%. Look at it and Colorado for spreads, since 1996, and no wonder they were Nos. 1 and 2 (with Colo. at 8.95%, 1.69% above his national 7.26%).

Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 10216
United States


View Profile
« Reply #58 on: June 09, 2013, 08:04:25 pm »
Ignore

What was so amazing was that Virgina which had not gone for a Democratic nominee since the 1964 so did in 2008, and unlike in 1964, not in a full landslide. Virginia was the one former Confederate state that did not go for Jimmy Carter in 1976. It never went for Bill Clinton, a very strong nominee.

Virginia is now a true border state between the North and South, and it has become increasingly "Northern" since the 1920s. It went for Hoover in 1928 and then went for the Democratic nominee in four consecutive Presidential elections. It then went clearly for Nixon in 1960. It was one of the weaker wins of LBJ. It was fairly close in 1976, but Carter still lost it.

Virginia has become more like a Northern State. It is increasingly urban. It is probably better educated than the average. That Obama won it in 2008 after it going to Dubya by about 8% twice suggests not only a nationwide shift but that the state itself has moved in ways different from some other states. 2012 confirms that a Republican nominee will have to be very effective to win it. It is near the national average.

 
Logged



Your political compass

Economic Left/Right: -7.00
Social Libertarian/Authoritarian: -5.49
Oldiesfreak1854
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8808
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #59 on: June 13, 2013, 01:29:15 pm »
Ignore

From what I've noticed in the voting patterns, Virginia is quickly becoming more of a Northeastern state than a Southern state politically, although it's geographically a Southern state.
Logged

Quote from: Dwight D. Eisenhower
There is nothing wrong with America that the faith, love of freedom, intelligence, and energy of her citizens cannot cure.
When I voted for the first time a few weeks ago, I announced "damnit, I voted for Pat Buchanan!" Nobody got it.
barfbag
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4661
United States


Political Matrix
E: 4.26, S: -0.87

View Profile
« Reply #60 on: July 07, 2013, 02:01:57 am »
Ignore

It's more of a toss up, swing, battleground state now. The tentacles of our government in D.C. have reached our first beloved colony. Obama probably did better than Democrats would have done there in the last 2 elections so even if the next couple elections in VA reflect the popular vote, it's hard to say if a generic Democratic candidate would have carried the state or had Obama's numbers there. There has definitely been a trend too which has helped the Democrats in the Old Dominion. By 2020 we'll be able to fully experience Obama's advantages or know that Virginia's outcomes in 2008 and 2012 were a result of trends.
Logged

Immortal Sockhead
Pessimistic Antineutrino
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 791
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.19, S: -1.74

View Profile
« Reply #61 on: July 07, 2013, 09:54:17 pm »
Ignore

It was not Obama that pulled Virginia over the line. The Democratic wave in 2008 demonstrated the extreme growth of NOVA which consists of young urban professionals, including many government workers. The young, upper-middle class educated demographic is obviously much more Democratic then the rest of the state, and the growth rates here compared to southwest Virginia have been pulling it away from GOP hands at an alarming rate. This obviously results in the state voting more like Maryland than the Carolinas. So unlike Obama's bumps in Louisiana and Mississippi, this state's movement is all trend based.
Logged
PolitiJunkie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1132


View Profile
« Reply #62 on: September 08, 2013, 01:20:11 pm »
Ignore

Campaign away in Virginia liberals! You'll do great there, just like you did in '04!

Thanks bro!


Obama has a better chance of winning VA, than McCain does of winning PA, WI, NH, or MI

ROTFLMAO!

Uh.... no. 

You fail.


No, you fail.

Obama will probably lose, but there is an outside chance he could win.  In all probability, though, Obama will lose 52-47.

Agreed, man.
Logged



Quote from: CNN/ORC Poll
8. As you may know, a bill that makes major changes to the country's health care system became law in 2010. Based on what you have read or heard about that legislation, do you generally favor or generally oppose it?

Favor: 38%
Oppose, too liberal: 39%
Oppose, not liberal enough: 11%
No opinion: 13%
ElectionsGuy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7559
United States


Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: -7.65

P P
View Profile
« Reply #63 on: September 09, 2013, 05:56:37 pm »
Ignore

You know what this says, that there will be absolute impossibilities pulled off by candidates in the future. Meaning states we know as Pennsylvania, North Carolina, or even New York could change drastically. If this thread says anything, its that some states that we say won't go republican/democrat in the future most definitely could/will.
Logged

2014 Senate Prediction
2014 Governor Predictions

Endorsements:

WI-1: Paul Ryan
Gov/Lt. Gov: Scott Walker/Rebecca Kleefisch
AG: Tom Nelson
SoS: None
Treasurer: Matt Adamczyk
Ballot Measure: No
Pages: 1 2 [3] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines