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Author Topic: virginia.  (Read 10529 times)
WalterMitty
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« on: March 25, 2008, 11:23:32 pm »
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why are the obama supporters so confident about virginia?

is it because of the big primary win there?

is it because of tim kaine?

is it because obama is so gosh darn inspiring?

i fail to see any way any democrat is going to carry va in 08.  i just dont see it, fellows.
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Lief
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« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2008, 11:28:11 pm »
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Trending-Democratic rapidly, big primary win, he does well in polls there, he appeals well to the rapidly growing NoVA voters, and there's a considerable black population in the state.

It's definitely one of the states that he'll have a good shot at taking.
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« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2008, 11:29:07 pm »
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Ironically, the problem Obama will have in VA is the same area of the state that torpedoed Allen in 2006.  Life is kind of odd.

Anyway, I would predict that VA will probably be somewhere in-between +3-+5 of the national margin in 2008, depending on the candidate.  So yes, a VP from here could swing the state, maybe.
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« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2008, 11:33:21 pm »
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Ironically, the problem Obama will have in VA is the same area of the state that torpedoed Allen in 2006.  Life is kind of odd.

Anyway, I would predict that VA will probably be somewhere in-between +3-+5 of the national margin in 2008, depending on the candidate.  So yes, a VP from here could swing the state, maybe.

With McCain running, Virginia will be a least a bit more GOP than the nation, against either Dem. Thus I don't consider it a critical swing state.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2008, 11:36:09 pm »
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Ironically, the problem Obama will have in VA is the same area of the state that torpedoed Allen in 2006.  Life is kind of odd.

Anyway, I would predict that VA will probably be somewhere in-between +3-+5 of the national margin in 2008, depending on the candidate.  So yes, a VP from here could swing the state, maybe.

With McCain running, Virginia will be a least a bit more GOP than the nation, against either Dem. Thus I don't consider it a critical swing state.

Based on what? McCain struggled in a (pretty much) uncontested Virginia primary. This is probably one of his weakest leaning Republican states electorally.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2008, 11:36:20 pm »
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Ironically, the problem Obama will have in VA is the same area of the state that torpedoed Allen in 2006.  Life is kind of odd.

Anyway, I would predict that VA will probably be somewhere in-between +3-+5 of the national margin in 2008, depending on the candidate.  So yes, a VP from here could swing the state, maybe.

With McCain running, Virginia will be a least a bit more GOP than the nation, against either Dem. Thus I don't consider it a critical swing state.

Ya, I meant +3 to +5 GOP.  Forgot to include that.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #6 on: March 25, 2008, 11:36:42 pm »
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waltermitty official prediction:

take note all of you little obama supporters who think white southerners who vote clinton in the primary are 'racist'

buchanan county va, where clinton won 90% of the vote, will go for obama if he is in fact the democrat nominee.
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« Reply #7 on: March 25, 2008, 11:42:27 pm »
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The state is trending Democratic, it was 5.7% more GOP than the national average in 2004, following that same trend it puts it @ 3% more GOP than the national average.  If anything the trend in Virginia towards the Democrats has picked up even more steam since 2004, so the 04-08 trend against the national average would likely be even heavier than the 00-04 trend.  Top that off with higher black turnout as well with Obama having more appeal than the typical Democrat would in leftward FLYING Northern Virginia.  In VA I would say Hillary could be within 3 points of the national average and possibly 2, Obama looks like he can very well be even with the national average.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2008, 11:44:29 pm »
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The state is trending Democratic, it was 5.7% more GOP than the national average in 2004, following that same trend it puts it @ 3% more GOP than the national average.  If anything the trend in Virginia towards the Democrats has picked up even more steam since 2004, so the 04-08 trend against the national average would likely be even heavier than the 00-04 trend.  Top that off with higher black turnout as well with Obama having more appeal than the typical Democrat would in leftward FLYING Northern Virginia.  In VA I would say Hillary could be within 3 points of the national average and possibly 2, Obama looks like he can very well be even with the national average.


My math and econometrics professors always warned against taking trends from the last data point or two and extrapolating forward.

It would be more conservative and wiser to say take the trend back from say 88 or 92 and seeing where that put VA.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2008, 11:45:27 pm »
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waltermitty official prediction:

take note all of you little obama supporters who think white southerners who vote clinton in the primary are 'racist'

buchanan county va, where clinton won 90% of the vote, will go for obama if he is in fact the democrat nominee.

I'm just curious, are you initially trying to bait Obama supporters? I am new here, but I've been a lurker for a few months, and I have noticed this is a consistent pattern with you. Would you quit it with the snide tone and the indignation towards Obama supporters? Nobody has brought up racism in this thread. Let's have a peaceful discussion.

Now.... back on topic. I do think Obama's huge primary win in a heavily contested primary, breaking even in the white vote against a formidable challenger... those are all good signs that he plays very well in Virginia, moreso than HRC. Will I say that it is a guarentee that Obama will win the state not? Of course not. It will lean Republican. But I do think Obama will put it in play, unlike Hillary Clinton. And putting it in play will make the GOP spend precious resources defending their own turf. They cannot afford to lose Virginia.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2008, 11:47:50 pm by ChrisFromNJ »Logged
WalterMitty
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« Reply #10 on: March 25, 2008, 11:46:55 pm »
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yes nova has been trending (i hate that term) democrat.

but keep in mind who is the republican nominee.  not george w.bush.  john mccain.  it seems to me he is very acceptable to many suburbanites.

he wont win nova, but i think he can slow the bleeding.
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« Reply #11 on: March 25, 2008, 11:50:26 pm »
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yes nova has been trending (i hate that term) democrat.

but keep in mind who is the republican nominee.  not george w.bush.  john mccain.  it seems to me he is very acceptable to many suburbanites.

he wont win nova, but i think he can slow the bleeding.

True, and can Obama stop the bleeding in ever Republican growing Southside?
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« Reply #12 on: March 25, 2008, 11:50:55 pm »
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waltermitty official prediction:

take note all of you little obama supporters who think white southerners who vote clinton in the primary are 'racist'

buchanan county va, where clinton won 90% of the vote, will go for obama if he is in fact the democrat nominee.

I should hope that any county that is heavily Democratic at the presidential level, which strongly favored Clinton in the primary would vote for Obama in the general - and vice versa

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« Reply #13 on: March 25, 2008, 11:52:56 pm »
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yes nova has been trending (i hate that term) democrat.

but keep in mind who is the republican nominee.  not george w.bush.  john mccain.  it seems to me he is very acceptable to many suburbanites.

he wont win nova, but i think he can slow the bleeding.

Why yes, McCain does not scare suburbanites, but Clinton sure does. I live in the stereotypical suburb, and everyone here hates Clinton. Obama will at least stand a chance against McCain in the suburbs, which happen to be home to many many voters.
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #14 on: March 25, 2008, 11:57:23 pm »
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yes nova has been trending (i hate that term) democrat.

but keep in mind who is the republican nominee.  not george w.bush.  john mccain.  it seems to me he is very acceptable to many suburbanites.

he wont win nova, but i think he can slow the bleeding.

True, and can Obama stop the bleeding in ever Republican growing Southside?

depends on what you  mean by southside?

i expect any democrat to do well in the cities of martinsville, south boston and danville.

the rural (white areas) of southside, mccain should do very well.  east of say halifax county, id definitely expect obama to perform better than clinton.
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« Reply #15 on: March 25, 2008, 11:59:01 pm »
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Also keep in mind that Kaine, Warner, and Webb are moderate Dems, while Obama and Clinton are liberal democrats. Obama's ceiling in VA will be 48% of the vote.

Virginia has yet to be contested on the national level as a true battleground. This is the first time in years VA's even been considered a swing state. It will take more than one election cycle to solidify that trend to the left enough to go Democrat, especially against McCain. For example, take New Jersey and New Hampshire...solid GOP in 1988, swing states that leaned to the right of the national average in 1992, but the national margin was great enough to swing them barely Dem, 1996 both were left of the national average. In 2000, NJ was solid Dem wheras NH swung back right in 2000, before making its assumed journey into solid democrat territory to stay.

However, if Warner had gotten the nomination this year, Virginia would have seen a seismic shift to the Dems, maybe a 15% shift or greater in terms of the national average
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« Reply #16 on: March 26, 2008, 12:01:25 am »
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Also keep in mind that Kaine, Warner, and Webb are moderate Dems, while Obama and Clinton are liberal democrats. Obama's ceiling in VA will be 48% of the vote.

Virginia has yet to be contested on the national level as a true battleground. This is the first time in years VA's even been considered a swing state. It will take more than one election cycle to solidify that trend to the left enough to go Democrat, especially against McCain. For example, take New Jersey and New Hampshire...solid GOP in 1988, swing states that leaned to the right of the national average in 1992, but the national margin was great enough to swing them barely Dem, 1996 both were left of the national average. In 2000, NJ was solid Dem wheras NH swung back right in 2000, before making its assumed journey into solid democrat territory to stay.

However, if Warner had gotten the nomination this year, Virginia would have seen a seismic shift to the Dems, maybe a 15% shift or greater in terms of the national average
Webb isn't a moderate Democrat...

Also, I fail to understand why McCain has some huge appeal to Virginians that George W. Bush lacked.
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Torie
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« Reply #17 on: March 26, 2008, 12:02:22 am »
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Leif, Bush won Virginia by 8% in 2004.
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bullmoose88
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« Reply #18 on: March 26, 2008, 12:02:36 am »
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Also keep in mind that Kaine, Warner, and Webb are moderate Dems, while Obama and Clinton are liberal democrats. Obama's ceiling in VA will be 48% of the vote.

Virginia has yet to be contested on the national level as a true battleground. This is the first time in years VA's even been considered a swing state. It will take more than one election cycle to solidify that trend to the left enough to go Democrat, especially against McCain. For example, take New Jersey and New Hampshire...solid GOP in 1988, swing states that leaned to the right of the national average in 1992, but the national margin was great enough to swing them barely Dem, 1996 both were left of the national average. In 2000, NJ was solid Dem wheras NH swung back right in 2000, before making its assumed journey into solid democrat territory to stay.

However, if Warner had gotten the nomination this year, Virginia would have seen a seismic shift to the Dems, maybe a 15% shift or greater in terms of the national average
Webb isn't a moderate Democrat...

Also, I fail to understand why McCain has some huge appeal to Virginians that George W. Bush lacked.

It may not so much be huge appeal rather than that mccain won't face the same sort of animosity Bush faced in nova04
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« Reply #19 on: March 26, 2008, 12:03:30 am »
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Also keep in mind that Kaine, Warner, and Webb are moderate Dems, while Obama and Clinton are liberal democrats. Obama's ceiling in VA will be 48% of the vote.

Virginia has yet to be contested on the national level as a true battleground. This is the first time in years VA's even been considered a swing state. It will take more than one election cycle to solidify that trend to the left enough to go Democrat, especially against McCain. For example, take New Jersey and New Hampshire...solid GOP in 1988, swing states that leaned to the right of the national average in 1992, but the national margin was great enough to swing them barely Dem, 1996 both were left of the national average. In 2000, NJ was solid Dem wheras NH swung back right in 2000, before making its assumed journey into solid democrat territory to stay.

However, if Warner had gotten the nomination this year, Virginia would have seen a seismic shift to the Dems, maybe a 15% shift or greater in terms of the national average
Webb isn't a moderate Democrat...

Also, I fail to understand why McCain has some huge appeal to Virginians that George W. Bush lacked.

He's more moderate than Obama, that's for sure. He also would've been slaughtered in the senate race if it weren't for Allen's big mouth.
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Torie
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« Reply #20 on: March 26, 2008, 12:09:30 am »
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There is a growing distaste for good old boys in Virginia, who appeal to the hinterlands, without many voters.  If a pubbie seems to be retro in that way, it's curtains. Ya, they can do great in some of those counties out there around Roanoke and so on, in the "Fighting Ninth," but overall it doesn't pencil. Virginia is more and more coming to look like Florida.
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #21 on: March 26, 2008, 12:11:18 am »
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Also, I fail to understand why McCain has some huge appeal to Virginians that George W. Bush lacked.

I'm scratching my head at that too. Anybody care to explain?
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Torie
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« Reply #22 on: March 26, 2008, 12:15:18 am »
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Also, I fail to understand why McCain has some huge appeal to Virginians that George W. Bush lacked.

I'm scratching my head at that too. Anybody care to explain?

Dubya ran about 5% better than the nation in Virginia in 2004, and McCain will match it. Heck if Bush ran again, he might run 5% better in Virginia than the nation, getting 45% there, while 40% in the nation.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #23 on: March 26, 2008, 12:23:13 am »
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Regardless of who's running, does anyone want to discuss VA itself...like i discussed in my previous post? it's a beautiful state! Smiley
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Torie
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« Reply #24 on: March 26, 2008, 12:37:16 am »
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Regardless of who's running, does anyone want to discuss VA itself...like i discussed in my previous post?

Ya, I noticed that there was almost no agriculture in my view when I drove from DC to Williamsburg, and the landscape seemed very monochromatic, with the same lot of about three species of trees, all about 25 feet in height.
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