North Dakota

[Horus]

I was just looking through the prediction maps, and in one page I saw FOUR maps that predicted an Obama victory in NORTH DAKOTA! Mind you these maps were otherwise fairly reasonable. Is there any chance whatsoever that North Dakota could be competitive this year? Personally I highly doubt it, but anything can happen...

[Tender Branson]

Is there any chance whatsoever that North Dakota could be competitive this year?

Only if BRTD runs Obama's North Dakota campaign.

[exopolitician]

Probably not.

[Joe Republic]

Is there any chance whatsoever that North Dakota could be competitive this year?

No.

As for the prediction maps, a few particularly impressionable people saw this poll and let common sense fall by the wayside.

[The Hack Hater]

No, I think not.

[Stranger in a strange land]

one poll showed Obama with a lead there. He has a TINY chance, about the same as McCain winning Connecticut. Things change however, and I expect this year's map won't look much like 2000 or 2004. The red state/blue state divide is definately over-hyped by the media.

That said I'd give him about a 5% chance of winning ND.

[WalterMitty]

strong obama, obviously.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

<5% chance

[JSojourner]

No chance whatsoever.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Obama would win South Dakota before he won North Dakota.. and he won't win South Dakota.

He is well liked in both states, though, for a Democrat... he could bring as low as 54/46 for McCain

[ottermax]

North Dakota doesn't have many voters. It would take a lot less time and effort to convince 50,000 voters in ND to change their vote than to change the minds of 70,000 in Ohio, or 90,000 in Michigan. If you look at the number of voters needed to change to outcome, North Dakota is actually easier than a lot of the usual big swing states.

I don't think North Dakotans are very polarized either. Although they vote strongly for the GOP in the presidential elections, they also vote strongly for their Democratic senators and representative. I doubt North Dakota would vote Democratic, but maybe it isn't entirely out of the question.

I think this year's election will see a huge change in the electoral map with big turnout and voters making different choices.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obama would win South Dakota before he won North Dakota

I'm not too sure about that. Obama would have an easier time in the urban parts of North Dakota than he would in Rapid City, which makes up a higher percentage of SD's population than any really bad area for Obama in ND makes up of ND's.