Taiwan Elections 2008

[jaichind]

Starting 3/12 (10 days before the 3/22 election), no polls can be published for the ROC 2008 Prez election.  Final polls are in for TVBS

3/10  Ma (KMT) 53 Hsieh (DPP) 29
3/11  Ma (KMT) 54 Hsieh (DPP) 29

[jaichind]

Final Gallup polls that could be legally published shows
Ma(KMT) 43(+4)  Hsieh(DPP) 21(+2)
It projects that chances of a Ma victory at above 80%.

Recent clashes between supporters of the KMT and DPP most likely hurt the KMT but also diverted attention from this Sunday (3/16) DPP rallies.  DPP had been counting the 3/16 rallies as a last ditch plan to capture victory from the jaws of defeat.

It seems that given the fact that Hsieh has taken a more radical line recently, he is mostly trying to avoid a large defeat.  The bogey seems to be to do no worse than Chen (DPP) in 2000 when he won 39.6% or the 40% the Pan-Greens got in thte 1/12/2008 Legislative elections.  The radical line for sure could consolidate the 35-40% Pan-Green base but would make it difficult to advance far beyond that.

 

[jaichind]

Result of 2004 ROC elections

                                                              Lien(KMT)           Chen(DPP)
Independent cities/counties
   Taipei City                                           56.5                   43.5
   KaoShiung City                                   44.3                    56.7
   Taipei County                                      53.1                   46.9

Taiwan Province
   Keelong City                                        59.4                   40.6
   Yilan County                                        42.3                   57.7
   Taoyuan County                                  55.3                   44.7
   Hsintsu County                                    64.1                   35.9
   Hsiintsu City                                         55.1                  44.9
   Miaoli County                                       60.7                   39.3
   Taichung County                                 48.2                    51.8   (bellwether county)
   Taichung City                                       52.7                   47.3
   Changhwa County                              47.7                    52.3   (bellwether county)
   Nantou County                                    51.2                   48.8
   Yunlin County                                      39.7                    60.3
   Jiayi County                                         37.2                    62.8
   Jiayi City                                              43.9                    56.1
   Tainan County                                     35.2                    64.8
   Tainan City                                          42.2                    57.8
   Kaoshiung County                               41.6                    58.4
   Pingdong County                                 41.9                    58.1
   Taidong County                                   66.5                    34.5
   Hualian County                                    70.2                    29.8
   Penghu County                                    50.5                    49.5
   
Fujian Province
   Jinmen County                                      93.9                     6.1
   Lianjian County                                    94.2                     5.8
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                                        49.89                50.11
 
 
 

[jaichind]

With over 90% of votes counted, Ma wins in a landslide.  Looks like 58.6% for Ma (KMT) and 41.4% of Hsieh (DPP).  This is pretty close to my 59-41 prediction back in January.

[jaichind]

All results counted.  Ma 58.45%  Hsieh 41.55%
The bogus "Taiwan join UN" referendum was also defeated in a major victory for the Mainland Chinese regime.
Long Live Republic of China!  Long Live Chinese reunfication!  For a greater Chinese Union!

[jaichind]

Result  for March 22 2008 ROC Presidential Election

                                                Ma           Hsieh      My Prediction   2004 swing
                                                                                    error
Independent cities/counties
   Taipei City                             63.0         37.0                -5.0              +6.5
   KaoShiung City                      51.6         48.4               +3.6              +7.3
   Taipei County                        61.1         38.9                -0.9              +8.0

Taiwan Province
   Keelong City                          67.7          32.3               -2.3              +8.3
   Yilan County                          51.4          49.6               -4.6              +9.1
   Taoyuan County                    64.6          35.4               -1.4              +9.3
   Hsintsu County                     74.0           26.0               -3.0              +9.9
   Hsintsu City                           64.7          35.3               -0.3              +9.6
   Miaoli County                         71.0          29.0               -4.0            +10.3   
   Taichung County                   58.8           41.2               -0.2            +10.6
   Taichung City                         61.7          38.3              +0.7              +9.0
   Changhwa County                57.6           42.4               -1.4              +9.9
   Nantou County                      62.0           38.0               -4.0           +10.8
   Yunlin County                        48.5           51.5              -2.5              +8.8
   Jiayi County                           45.6           54.4              -1.4              +8.4
   Jiayi City                                52.4           47.6              +2.4             +8.5
   Tainan County                       43.9           56.1              -1.1              +8.7
   Tainan City                            50.7           49.3              +3.7             +8.5
   Kaoshiung County                 48.6           51.4              +0.6             +8.0
   Pingdong County                   49.8           50.2              -1.2              +7.9
   Taidong County                     73.3           26.7               -4.7             +6.8
   Hualian County                      77.5           22.5              -1.5              +7.3
   Penghu County                      57.9           42.1              -7.1              +7.4
   

Fujian Province
   Jinmen County                       95.1            4.9               -0.9              +1.2
   Lianjian County                      95.1            4.9              +2.1              +0.9
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                         58.45         41.55           -0.55             +8.56
 
 
 

[jaichind]

It is intesting to look at the DPP vote between 2000 and 2008.  Chen of the DPP won a three way race where the KMT vote was split between two candidates.  Except for a few Southern counties where there has been a pro-DPP realigment, the Hiseh 2008 vote is always about 2% above Chen in 2000.  It shows the stablity of partisan alignments on Taiwan and Fujian provinces on ROC.

DPP vote for ROC president between 2000 and 2008

                                                   Chen (2000)       Hsieh(2008)       Diff
Independent cities/counties
   Taipei City                                 37.6                    37.0                  -0.6
   KaoShiung City                         45.8                    48.4                  +2.6
   Taipei County                            36.7                   38.9                  +2.2

Taiwan Province
   Keelong City                              30.8                   32.3                   +1.5
   Yilan County                              47.3                   49.6                   +2.3
   Taoyuan County                        31.7                   35.4                   +3.7
   Hsintsu County                          24.3                   26.0                  +1.7
   Hsintsu City                               34.0                   35.3                  +1.3
   Miaoli County                             26.8                   29.0                  +2.2
   Taichung County                        36.5                   41.2                  +4.7
   Taichung City                             35.9                   38.3                  +2.4
   Changhwa County                     40.1                   42.4                  +2.3
   Nantou County                          34.5                    38.0                 +3.5
   Yunlin County                            46.0                    51.5                 +5.5
   Jiayi County                               50.0                    54.4                 +4.4
   Jiayi City                                    47.0                    47.6                 +0.6
   Tainan County                           53.8                    56.1                 +2.3
   Tainan City                                45.1                    49.3                 +4.2
   Kaoshiung County                     47.1                    51.4                 +4.3
   Pingdong County                       45.3                    50.2                 +4.9
   Taidong County                         23.2                    26.7                 +3.5
   Hualian County                          21.2                    22.5                 +1.3
   Penghu County                         36.8                     42.1                 +5.3

Fujian Province
   Jinmen County                             3.1                     4.9                  +1.8
   Lianjian County                            1.8                     4.9                  +3.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total                                              39.31                41.55                +2.24
 
 

[Jake]

What's the deal with Fujian Province?

[minionofmidas]

What's the deal with Fujian Province?

Those are those little islands off the Chinese coast.

[Jake]

Ah, of course. Makes perfect sense now.

[jaichind]

ROC controls territores from Taiwan Province (obviously), independent cities of Taipei and Kaoshiung, Kinmen and Matsu of Fujian province, and Taiping Island in the Spratlies which is part of Guangdong Province.  Until 1955 ROC also controled TaChen Islands which are part of Zhejiang Province.

[jaichind]

Now the KMT will enjoy political domination it had not achieved since the late 1980s.  KMT and allies will control the Presidency, over 75% of the LiFaYuan (legislature), 18 of 25 county/city governments (other than Kaoshiung City, all DPP controled county/city are poor areas at the mercy of the central government),  24 of 25 county/city legislatures, and over 70% of all block/township heads.  During the 8 year DPP rule, it did make some headway into grassroots control of local government through alliances with various factions that used to be pro-KMT.  But other than the poor Jiayi County, it was not able to break the KMT control of the county/city legislatures and block/township heads.  In Jiayi the DPP-Lin Faction alliance was able to break the KMT-Yellowfaction hold on local goverment.  Now with the KMT in charge of the central government even this gain might be reversed as the Lin Faction is running into anti-incumbancy problems in Jiayi County.  Of course the powerful pro-DPP Black faction will still be a force to reckoned with in Kaoshiung County but power will slowly shift to the KMT-White Faction-Red Faction alliance from the DPP-Black faction alliance over the next few years.  KMT-Zhang faction alliance in DPP contolled Yunlin County will also surge to power soon.  KMT-Red Faction-Black Faction alliance in Taichung County will also continue its rule.  Main challange of KMT rule should be to revive the economy (with greater economic integration with the Mainland) and to continue its profitable alliances with local faction leaders in rural counties where clientalist polticis rule they day without upsetting its urban middle class base who are looking for a more modern political structure.

[jaichind]

2008 election reflects the basic partisan division of the system of 2000.  In 2000 the KMT split between Lien (23.3%) and Soong (36.7%) who ran seperate campaigns and lost to the united DPP candidate Chen.  Ma in 2008 won for the KMT a similar number to the combined 2000 KMT vote.  The partisan trends of the system of 2000 are:

1) KMT stronger in high educated, high income, urban sections while DPP stronger in low education, low income, rural sections.
2) KMT very strong in Mainlander voters (11%) by a margin of about 8 to 2.  Mainlanders tend to be concentrated in urban Greater Taipei and urban Taoyuan.
3) KMT very strong in Taiwanese Aborigine votes (1%) by a margin of about 8 to 2.  Aboroigines tend to be concentrated in rural Taidong County and rural Hualian County.
4) KMT strong with Hakkas (14%), especially in the North where Hakkas are concentrated in urban Taoyuan County, rural Hsintsu, and Miaoli County by a margin of 7 to 3.
5) KMT and DPP split the majority Hoklo (74%) down the middle all things equal
6) Poor Rural voters in the South tend to vote for the ruling party due to the government subsities.
7) KMT still dominate grassroots organizations from its 50 year rule before 2000.  With the exception of Greater Jiayi, local grassroots and factional organizations tends to be pro KMT.  The DPP did manage during its 8 year rule to capture the Greater Jiayi grassroots infrastructure, something the KMT will look forward the re-taking now it will be back in charge.

Looking at the 2000 to 2008 KMT swing we see these trends getting stronger.  KMT won in 2008 all urban sections.  Even in Greater Tainan, the DPP heartland, it managed 50.83% of the urban vote. In Yilan, an old DPP stronghold, the KMT strength in urban areas due to the reasons above were able to overcome strong DPP showing in the poorer rural areas.   KMT performed better and loss less votes from 2000 in urban areas and lost the most in rural areas, especially in the South where it is weaker and suffer from the fact that it was the ruling party in 2000 but not in 2008.  KMT did very well in urban Taipei (due to Mainlanders), urban Taoyuan (due to Mainlanders and Hakkas), rural Hsintsu and rural Miaoli (due to Hakkas), and rural Taidong and Hualian (due to Aborigines).  DPP did well in rural Tainan, Jiayi and Yunlin due to the fact they are the poorest and lowest educated counties plus the ruling party effect for government subsidies.

                                      KMT share of vote (2008)                        00-08 Swing
Region                   Total           Urban      Township  Rural     Urban Township  Rural     Total   
                                               (59.5%)     (14.5%)    (26%)
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Greater Jinmen      95.13%          N/A   95.01%   95.36%          N/A   -0.94%   -2.07%    -1.34%
Hulian County        77.48%   75.73%   76.73%   78.65%   +1.00%   -3.20%   -0.88%    -0.61%
Taidong County     73.32%   70.22%   78.41%   75.75%   -1.52%   -4.04%   -4.31%    -3.12%
Miaoli County         70.99%   78.06%   65.99%   76.74%   +1.09%   -0.44%   -2.45%    -0.85%
Greater Hsintsu     69.88%   66.05%   75.24%   75.19%   +0.45%   +2.96%   +0.62%   +0.80%
Taoyuan County    64.64%   66.60%   64.40%   60.81%   -1.03%   -0.35%   -2.40%    -1.34%
Greater Taipei        62.21%   62.50%   60.79%   58.73%   -0.02%   -3.26%   -3.66%    -0.38%
Nantou County      62.03%   64.33%   61.11%   61.98%   -3.79%   -3.71%   -2.05%    -3.06%
Greater Taichung   60.02%   60.45%   59.43%   59.31%   -1.70%   -3.34%   -4.68%    -4.87%
Penghu County      57.93%   60.47%         N/A   53.75%   -3.99%         N/A   -6.52%    -2.71%
Changhwa County 57.59%   60.16%   58.33%   55.92%   -1.00%   -1.77%   -2.29%    -1.83%
Yilan County           51.42%   57.38%   53.62%   47.39%   +0.17%   -1.51%   -1.61%    -2.87%
Greater Kaoshiung 50.26%   51.86%   51.60%   45.71%   -2.11%   -3.95%   -4.73%    -1.14%
Pingdong County    49.75%   55.88%   47.72%   47.73%   -1.83%   -3.23%   -4.30%    -3.46%
Yunlin County         48.47%   58.00%   48.20%   45.86%   -0.25%   -3.84%   -5.40%    -4.01%
Greater Jiayi           47.82%   50.68%   48.05%   45.33%   -1.00%   -4.84%   -4.51%    -3.03%
Greater Tainan       46.67%   50.83%   39.66%   42.22%   -2.30%   -2.06%   -2.72%    -2.13%
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ROC total                58.45%   60.13%   58.22%   54.50%   -0.79%   -1.82%   -3.21%    -1.49%