Germany 2009: SPD at lowest level ever
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Tender Branson
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« on: March 26, 2008, 11:12:33 AM »
« edited: March 26, 2008, 12:09:44 PM by Tender Branson »

New Forsa poll for the magazine "Stern":

CDU: 38%
SPD: 22%
Left Party: 14%
Greens: 11%
FDP: 11%
Others: 4%

Forsa has also polled all 16 states. CDU/CSU is now the strongest party in 14 of 16 states and the Left Party is ahead in 2 states (Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt). Back in the 2005 elections, the SPD had won 12 out of 16 states.

For example, 3 years ago in Bremen the SPD received 43% of the vote. Now they are at 23%.

In Saarland the SPD has fallen behind the Left Party and is now weaker than the SPD in Bavaria.

I´m trying to find the exact numbers from all 16 states.

The map:

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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #1 on: March 26, 2008, 11:18:46 AM »

Um, well, but it's a Forsa poll. As a general rule, add about 5% to the SPD and you have the actual numbers. Wink
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The Mikado
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« Reply #2 on: March 26, 2008, 11:19:56 AM »

Oh, this has got to be an outlier.

No return to Black/Yellow!
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« Reply #3 on: March 26, 2008, 11:21:23 AM »


Well, as a Forsa poll it's no outlier. But Forsa itself as a polling firm tends to be an outlier. Wink
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: March 26, 2008, 11:26:11 AM »


Well, as a Forsa poll it's no outlier. But Forsa itself as a polling firm tends to be an outlier. Wink

How so ? Forsa predicted the 34% for the SPD in the 2005 elections, but on the CDU all pollsters were off by about 6-8%, including Forsa.

Unfortunately, the only poll state elections 2 months in advance, so yes, this can lead to variations.

They even got Hesse right ...
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« Reply #5 on: March 26, 2008, 11:38:12 AM »


Well, as a Forsa poll it's no outlier. But Forsa itself as a polling firm tends to be an outlier. Wink

How so ? Forsa predicted the 34% for the SPD in the 2005 elections, but on the CDU all pollsters were off by about 6-8%, including Forsa.

Unfortunately, the only poll state elections 2 months in advance, so yes, this can lead to variations.

They even got Hesse right ...

I'm not sure whether this had already been the case in 2005, but the SPD often seems to get far lower numbers in Forsa polls than in polls from other firms. Which either means that Forsa is right and all other polls are wrong or Forsa is wrong and all other firms are right. For example, the SPD got 27% in the latest Infratest poll. So let's say I'm not suprised that it is indeed Forsa who polls the SPD "at the lowest level ever" now. Otherwiese, it would certainly be strange. The famous "OMG, NPD beats the SPD in Saxony" poll was also from Forsa (while all other firms gave the SPD better numbers than the NPD in Saxony at that time).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2008, 11:44:58 AM »

The famous "OMG, NPD beats the SPD in Saxony" poll was also from Forsa (while all other firms gave the SPD better numbers than the NPD in Saxony at that time).

The numbers for the NPD may have been true at this time. We don´t know. Didn´t the "Sachsen Landesbank - Skandal" happen during this time ? Maybe a few CDU and SPD voters were unhappy about the handling of the scandal back then and voiced their support for the NPD ? Now the NPD is back to were it belongs - declining - as the scandal is over and the state economy/unemployment is improving.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2008, 12:04:40 PM »

Back in the 2005 elections, the SPD had won 14 out of 16 states.
Uh, no. Try 12. Grin
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LMAO!
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I suppose the second "SPD" is a misprint for either FDP or Greens?
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German pollsters are not good about releasing internals...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: March 26, 2008, 12:09:28 PM »

Back in the 2005 elections, the SPD had won 14 out of 16 states.
Uh, no. Try 12. Grin
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LMAO!
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I suppose the second "SPD" is a misprint for either FDP or Greens?
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German pollsters are not good about releasing internals...

Hopefully www.wahlrecht.de will include the numbers on their page ... Wink
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2008, 12:55:00 PM »

Why does Forsa always show lower SPD numbers than other companies? Different methodology?

The famous "OMG, NPD beats the SPD in Saxony" poll was also from Forsa (while all other firms gave the SPD better numbers than the NPD in Saxony at that time).

The numbers for the NPD may have been true at this time. We don´t know. Didn´t the "Sachsen Landesbank - Skandal" happen during this time ? Maybe a few CDU and SPD voters were unhappy about the handling of the scandal back then and voiced their support for the NPD ? Now the NPD is back to were it belongs - declining - as the scandal is over and the state economy/unemployment is improving.

I think his point is that polls by other firms done at the same time as that poll were better than that poll.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2008, 01:39:40 PM »

Why does Forsa always show lower SPD numbers than other companies? Different methodology?
Nobody knows.
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Michael Z
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« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2008, 06:56:37 PM »

At this rate, the SPD may have no chance but to enter a coalition with Die Linke on federal level if they want to get back into government (that's not a Grand Coalition) any time soon.

Mind you, given that Die Linke is effectively, if only partially, an SPD splinter group, it wouldn't make for all that much of a change I suspect.
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afleitch
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« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2008, 08:27:20 AM »
« Edited: March 27, 2008, 08:30:16 AM by afleitch »

I see ' x is too low so it must be an outlier' is alive and well when discussing German polls too Smiley It usually happens when people have some form of vested interest in the fortunes of 'x' (by themselves, or over 'y')
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« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2008, 03:34:04 PM »

Polls again. Let's not celebrate or cry our heads off yet.
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« Reply #14 on: March 27, 2008, 06:25:22 PM »

Polls again. Let's not celebrate or cry our heads off yet.

Well, compared with American primary polls, German polls tennd to be far more reliable. Wink

However, the election is still a year and a half away here and it isn't even settled who the SPD's chancellor candidate will be.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #15 on: March 28, 2008, 01:19:24 AM »

German pollsters are not good about releasing internals...

They are, they are ... Smiley

Bavaria

CSU: 43%
SPD: 18%
FDP: 13%
Greens: 12%
The Left: 7%
Others: 7%

Baden-Württemberg

CDU: 38%
SPD: 22%
Greens: 14%
FDP: 12%
The Left: 9%
Others: 5%

Saarland

CDU: 35%
The Left: 29%
SPD: 16%
FDP: 9%
Greens: 7%
Others: 4%

Rhineland-Palatine

CDU: 39%
SPD: 23%
FDP: 12%
Greens: 11%
The Left: 9%
Others: 6%

Hesse

CDU: 35%
SPD: 25%
FDP: 14%
The Left: 11%
Greens: 11%
Others: 4%

North Rhine-Westphalia

CDU: 39%
SPD: 23%
FDP: 12%
The Left: 11%
Greens: 11%
Others: 4%

Lower Saxony

CDU: 38%
SPD: 25%
FDP: 11%
The Left: 11%
Greens: 11%
Others: 4%

Bremen

CDU: 33%
SPD: 23%
Greens: 16%
The Left: 12%
FDP: 12%
Others: 4%

Hamburg

CDU: 36%
SPD: 21%
Greens: 18%
The Left: 15%
FDP: 7%
Others: 3%

Schleswig-Holstein

CDU: 40%
SPD: 23%
Greens: 13%
FDP: 11%
The Left: 10%
Others: 3%

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

CDU: 31%
The Left: 28%
SPD: 26%
FDP: 8%
Greens: 4%
Others: 3%

Brandenburg

The Left: 33%
CDU: 25%
SPD: 25%
FDP: 7%
Greens: 5%
Others: 5%

Berlin

CDU: 25%
SPD: 23%
The Left: 21%
Greens: 16%
FDP: 8%
Others: 7%

Saxony-Anhalt

The Left: 35%
CDU: 31%
SPD: 20%
FDP: 6%
Greens: 5%
Others: 3%

Thuringia

CDU: 33%
The Left: 31%
SPD: 21%
FDP: 6%
Greens: 5%
Others: 4%

Saxony

CDU: 33%
The Left: 28%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 10%
Greens: 8%
Others: 6%

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Hashemite
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« Reply #16 on: March 28, 2008, 06:48:56 AM »

What's with the Die Linke strength in Saarland? Industrialization of the region?
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« Reply #17 on: March 28, 2008, 08:20:32 AM »

What's with the Die Linke strength in Saarland? Industrialization of the region?

No, Oskar Lafontaine.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #18 on: March 29, 2008, 11:04:11 AM »

I see ' x is too low so it must be an outlier' is alive and well when discussing German polls too Smiley It usually happens when people have some form of vested interest in the fortunes of 'x' (by themselves, or over 'y')

Compare Forsa to every other pollster... then compare every other pollster to what near-inevitably happens around election time... and then try arguing the problem away. See if you find an argument to come up with. Would have to be fairly metaphysical. Tongue

Mind you. The SPD is in dreadful shape, and will be as long as there's a "debate" about cooperation with the Left. In many ways it's a repeat of the 80s (and the "debate" about cooperating with the Greens.)
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #19 on: March 30, 2008, 04:45:40 AM »

Yeah, seems to be 16 separate genuine polls (of federal voting intention by state, mind you. Not of state voting intention. Which would have the Left polling lower in the West.). Can't find the sample sizes, but could find the summed total of em, and that was looking good.

The reason there were so few data at first is they wanted to sell their magazine. Wink
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #20 on: April 05, 2008, 03:06:38 AM »

I'd like to see an SPD/Linke coalition. Practical considerations aside, we'd finally get that SPD/KPD coalition that should've come about 75 years ago. Tongue

(KPD→SED→Linke, no?)
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #21 on: April 05, 2008, 09:14:46 AM »

I'd like to see an SPD/Linke coalition. Practical considerations aside, we'd finally get that SPD/KPD coalition that should've come about 75 years ago. Tongue

(KPD→SED→Linke, no?)
Ah, but the SED was a fusion of KPD and SPD, so East Germany already had such a government. Tongue
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Frodo
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« Reply #22 on: April 05, 2008, 09:59:59 AM »

German pollsters are not good about releasing internals...

They are, they are ... Smiley

Bavaria

CSU: 43%
SPD: 18%
FDP: 13%
Greens: 12%
The Left: 7%
Others: 7%

Baden-Württemberg

CDU: 38%
SPD: 22%
Greens: 14%
FDP: 12%
The Left: 9%
Others: 5%

Saarland

CDU: 35%
The Left: 29%
SPD: 16%
FDP: 9%
Greens: 7%
Others: 4%

Rhineland-Palatine

CDU: 39%
SPD: 23%
FDP: 12%
Greens: 11%
The Left: 9%
Others: 6%

Hesse

CDU: 35%
SPD: 25%
FDP: 14%
The Left: 11%
Greens: 11%
Others: 4%

North Rhine-Westphalia

CDU: 39%
SPD: 23%
FDP: 12%
The Left: 11%
Greens: 11%
Others: 4%

Lower Saxony

CDU: 38%
SPD: 25%
FDP: 11%
The Left: 11%
Greens: 11%
Others: 4%

Bremen

CDU: 33%
SPD: 23%
Greens: 16%
The Left: 12%
FDP: 12%
Others: 4%

Hamburg

CDU: 36%
SPD: 21%
Greens: 18%
The Left: 15%
FDP: 7%
Others: 3%

Schleswig-Holstein

CDU: 40%
SPD: 23%
Greens: 13%
FDP: 11%
The Left: 10%
Others: 3%

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

CDU: 31%
The Left: 28%
SPD: 26%
FDP: 8%
Greens: 4%
Others: 3%

Brandenburg

The Left: 33%
CDU: 25%
SPD: 25%
FDP: 7%
Greens: 5%
Others: 5%

Berlin

CDU: 25%
SPD: 23%
The Left: 21%
Greens: 16%
FDP: 8%
Others: 7%

Saxony-Anhalt

The Left: 35%
CDU: 31%
SPD: 20%
FDP: 6%
Greens: 5%
Others: 3%

Thuringia

CDU: 33%
The Left: 31%
SPD: 21%
FDP: 6%
Greens: 5%
Others: 4%

Saxony

CDU: 33%
The Left: 28%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 10%
Greens: 8%
Others: 6%

Link

I am not well educated when it comes to German politics, but with the CDU/CSU leading in most of the regions by varying margins, does it mean that if the election were held today that the center-right would win a comfortable majority, and that Angela Merkel need not concern herself any longer with the rather awkward alliance with the SDP? 
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #23 on: April 05, 2008, 10:05:47 AM »

Nothing could be further from the truth.

This is a minimal (49-47) lead for CDU/FDP, in the least SPD-friendly pollster's least SPD-friendly poll.
Normally, I'd add that there's always infinitely more unreported weak SPD than weak CDU support in such polls... but to get these people to the polls you actually need to inspire them, and an SPD campaigning only to stay junior partner won't do that.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #24 on: April 05, 2008, 10:23:16 AM »

I'd like to see an SPD/Linke coalition. Practical considerations aside, we'd finally get that SPD/KPD coalition that should've come about 75 years ago. Tongue

(KPD→SED→Linke, no?)
Ah, but the SED was a fusion of KPD and SPD, so East Germany already had such a government. Tongue

Coercion can't count. Wink
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