Germany 2009: SPD at lowest level ever

[Tender Branson]

New Forsa poll for the magazine "Stern":

CDU: 38%
SPD: 22%
Left Party: 14%
Greens: 11%
FDP: 11%
Others: 4%

Forsa has also polled all 16 states. CDU/CSU is now the strongest party in 14 of 16 states and the Left Party is ahead in 2 states (Brandenburg, Saxony-Anhalt). Back in the 2005 elections, the SPD had won 12 out of 16 states.

For example, 3 years ago in Bremen the SPD received 43% of the vote. Now they are at 23%.

In Saarland the SPD has fallen behind the Left Party and is now weaker than the SPD in Bavaria.

I´m trying to find the exact numbers from all 16 states.

The map:

[Tender Branson]

Oh, this has got to be an outlier.

Well, as a Forsa poll it's no outlier. But Forsa itself as a polling firm tends to be an outlier.

How so ? Forsa predicted the 34% for the SPD in the 2005 elections, but on the CDU all pollsters were off by about 6-8%, including Forsa.

Unfortunately, the only poll state elections 2 months in advance, so yes, this can lead to variations.

They even got Hesse right ...

[Tender Branson]

The famous "OMG, NPD beats the SPD in Saxony" poll was also from Forsa (while all other firms gave the SPD better numbers than the NPD in Saxony at that time).

The numbers for the NPD may have been true at this time. We don´t know. Didn´t the "Sachsen Landesbank - Skandal" happen during this time ? Maybe a few CDU and SPD voters were unhappy about the handling of the scandal back then and voiced their support for the NPD ? Now the NPD is back to were it belongs - declining - as the scandal is over and the state economy/unemployment is improving.

[Tender Branson]

Back in the 2005 elections, the SPD had won 14 out of 16 states.

Uh, no. Try 12.

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LMAO!

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I suppose the second "SPD" is a misprint for either FDP or Greens?

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German pollsters are not good about releasing internals...

Hopefully www.wahlrecht.de will include the numbers on their page ...

[Tender Branson]

German pollsters are not good about releasing internals...

They are, they are ...

Bavaria

CSU: 43%
SPD: 18%
FDP: 13%
Greens: 12%
The Left: 7%
Others: 7%

Baden-Württemberg

CDU: 38%
SPD: 22%
Greens: 14%
FDP: 12%
The Left: 9%
Others: 5%

Saarland

CDU: 35%
The Left: 29%
SPD: 16%
FDP: 9%
Greens: 7%
Others: 4%

Rhineland-Palatine

CDU: 39%
SPD: 23%
FDP: 12%
Greens: 11%
The Left: 9%
Others: 6%

Hesse

CDU: 35%
SPD: 25%
FDP: 14%
The Left: 11%
Greens: 11%
Others: 4%

North Rhine-Westphalia

CDU: 39%
SPD: 23%
FDP: 12%
The Left: 11%
Greens: 11%
Others: 4%

Lower Saxony

CDU: 38%
SPD: 25%
FDP: 11%
The Left: 11%
Greens: 11%
Others: 4%

Bremen

CDU: 33%
SPD: 23%
Greens: 16%
The Left: 12%
FDP: 12%
Others: 4%

Hamburg

CDU: 36%
SPD: 21%
Greens: 18%
The Left: 15%
FDP: 7%
Others: 3%

Schleswig-Holstein

CDU: 40%
SPD: 23%
Greens: 13%
FDP: 11%
The Left: 10%
Others: 3%

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern

CDU: 31%
The Left: 28%
SPD: 26%
FDP: 8%
Greens: 4%
Others: 3%

Brandenburg

The Left: 33%
CDU: 25%
SPD: 25%
FDP: 7%
Greens: 5%
Others: 5%

Berlin

CDU: 25%
SPD: 23%
The Left: 21%
Greens: 16%
FDP: 8%
Others: 7%

Saxony-Anhalt

The Left: 35%
CDU: 31%
SPD: 20%
FDP: 6%
Greens: 5%
Others: 3%

Thuringia

CDU: 33%
The Left: 31%
SPD: 21%
FDP: 6%
Greens: 5%
Others: 4%

Saxony

CDU: 33%
The Left: 28%
SPD: 15%
FDP: 10%
Greens: 8%
Others: 6%

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