Germany 2009: SPD at lowest level ever

[minionofmidas]

Back in the 2005 elections, the SPD had won 14 out of 16 states.

Uh, no. Try 12.

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LMAO!

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I suppose the second "SPD" is a misprint for either FDP or Greens?

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German pollsters are not good about releasing internals...

[minionofmidas]

Why does Forsa always show lower SPD numbers than other companies? Different methodology?

Nobody knows.

[minionofmidas]

I see ' x is too low so it must be an outlier' is alive and well when discussing German polls too It usually happens when people have some form of vested interest in the fortunes of 'x' (by themselves, or over 'y')

Compare Forsa to every other pollster... then compare every other pollster to what near-inevitably happens around election time... and then try arguing the problem away. See if you find an argument to come up with. Would have to be fairly metaphysical.

Mind you. The SPD is in dreadful shape, and will be as long as there's a "debate" about cooperation with the Left. In many ways it's a repeat of the 80s (and the "debate" about cooperating with the Greens.)

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, seems to be 16 separate genuine polls (of federal voting intention by state, mind you. Not of state voting intention. Which would have the Left polling lower in the West.). Can't find the sample sizes, but could find the summed total of em, and that was looking good.

The reason there were so few data at first is they wanted to sell their magazine.

[minionofmidas]

I'd like to see an SPD/Linke coalition. Practical considerations aside, we'd finally get that SPD/KPD coalition that should've come about 75 years ago.

(KPD→SED→Linke, no?)

Ah, but the SED was a fusion of KPD and SPD, so East Germany already had such a government.

[minionofmidas]

Nothing could be further from the truth.

This is a minimal (49-47) lead for CDU/FDP, in the least SPD-friendly pollster's least SPD-friendly poll.
Normally, I'd add that there's always infinitely more unreported weak SPD than weak CDU support in such polls... but to get these people to the polls you actually need to inspire them, and an SPD campaigning only to stay junior partner won't do that.

[minionofmidas]

I'd like to see an SPD/Linke coalition. Practical considerations aside, we'd finally get that SPD/KPD coalition that should've come about 75 years ago.

(KPD→SED→Linke, no?)

Ah, but the SED was a fusion of KPD and SPD, so East Germany already had such a government.

Coercion can't count.

Coercion played a role there. A very major role. But was not the sole factor.