Germany 2009: SPD at lowest level ever

[Middle-aged Europe]

Um, well, but it's a Forsa poll. As a general rule, add about 5% to the SPD and you have the actual numbers.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Oh, this has got to be an outlier.

Well, as a Forsa poll it's no outlier. But Forsa itself as a polling firm tends to be an outlier.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Oh, this has got to be an outlier.

Well, as a Forsa poll it's no outlier. But Forsa itself as a polling firm tends to be an outlier.

How so ? Forsa predicted the 34% for the SPD in the 2005 elections, but on the CDU all pollsters were off by about 6-8%, including Forsa.

Unfortunately, the only poll state elections 2 months in advance, so yes, this can lead to variations.

They even got Hesse right ...

I'm not sure whether this had already been the case in 2005, but the SPD often seems to get far lower numbers in Forsa polls than in polls from other firms. Which either means that Forsa is right and all other polls are wrong or Forsa is wrong and all other firms are right. For example, the SPD got 27% in the latest Infratest poll. So let's say I'm not suprised that it is indeed Forsa who polls the SPD "at the lowest level ever" now. Otherwiese, it would certainly be strange. The famous "OMG, NPD beats the SPD in Saxony" poll was also from Forsa (while all other firms gave the SPD better numbers than the NPD in Saxony at that time).

[Middle-aged Europe]

Polls again. Let's not celebrate or cry our heads off yet.

Well, compared with American primary polls, German polls tennd to be far more reliable.

However, the election is still a year and a half away here and it isn't even settled who the SPD's chancellor candidate will be.

[Middle-aged Europe]

What's with the Die Linke strength in Saarland? Industrialization of the region?

No, Oskar Lafontaine.