TN-7: Congresswoman Blackburn gets unexpected Primary challenge from the right

[Adlai Stevenson]

Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn (R) was caught by surprise this week when Shelby County Register and former State Senator Tom Leatherwood announced he will challenge the incumbent in the GOP primary. Leatherwood said that Republicans held majority control of Congress and squandered it through a loss of conservative values. "Incumbent Blackburn was part of the problem. I think Republicans lost control of the House and Senate because they became self-serving rather than being public servants. And I think the record shows that." Leatherwood went on to blast Blackburn for the "funneling of over $120,000 in campaign and PAC funds to her family. This is out of line. Over $46,000 of that was in 2004 when she did not have any primary or general election opposition." And then Leatherwood went on to hit Blackburn for taking at least 20 vacation trips paid for by special interest groups. This is going to be a nasty primary fight.

http://www.politics1.com/

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

From the right?  What part about her isn't conservative, exactly?

[Adlai Stevenson]

From the right?  What part about her isn't conservative, exactly?

Leatherwood said that Republicans held majority control of Congress and squandered it through a loss of conservative values. "Incumbent Blackburn was part of the problem. I think Republicans lost control of the House and Senate because they became self-serving rather than being public servants. And I think the record shows that."

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

From the right?  What part about her isn't conservative, exactly?

Leatherwood said that Republicans held majority control of Congress and squandered it through a loss of conservative values. "Incumbent Blackburn was part of the problem. I think Republicans lost control of the House and Senate because they became self-serving rather than being public servants. And I think the record shows that."

That appears to be longhand for "nothing."

[Spaghetti Cat]

Wtf?  Blackburn is one of the most conservative members of Congress.  This diptard doesn't stand a chance.

[Brittain33]

It sounds as if Blackburn is under an ethical cloud and she has some shady dealings to be explored.

[memphis]

Blackburn is very safe. Only about 1/3 of the district's population is here in Shelby County and even here he's not well-known.  The real primary election will be in TN-9.

[HardRCafé]

From the right?  What part about her isn't conservative, exactly?

She has breasts.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Blackburn is very safe. Only about 1/3 of the district's population is here in Shelby County and even here he's not well-known.  The real primary election will be in TN-9.

Huh?  Shelby County is around half of the district's population.  If he doesn't raise some serious cash he will still be at a big disadvantage though.

This diptard doesn't stand a chance.

I think I am going to stop making obscene statements about candidates in other parts of the country to avoid calling a fellow poster's close friends "diptards"

[memphis]

Blackburn is very safe. Only about 1/3 of the district's population is here in Shelby County and even here he's not well-known.  The real primary election will be in TN-9.

Huh?  Shelby County is around half of the district's population.

Population of Shelby County   (911,438)
Tennessee's pop/9                -(670,978)  Let's take TN-9, which is wholly in Shelby out
                                                240,560
                                               -(30,000) Let's take out part of TN-8 (parts of Frayser and Millington)
This leaves about 210,000 in Shelby TN-7 or about 1/3 of a Congressional district.
It's basically just Germantown (40,000), Collierville (30,000), Cordova (50,000), Bartlett (40,000), and very low population areas like Arlington, Lakeland, and Eads. Don't let the big houses out there fool you. There aren't that many people

[Filuwaúrdjan]

TN-9 has a population of 607,663 (down almost 30,000 since the census).

Black: +7,937
White: - 44,392

Shelby county has a population of 911,438 (up about 14,000 since the census).

Black: +32,527
White: -36,126

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Blackburn is very safe. Only about 1/3 of the district's population is here in Shelby County and even here he's not well-known.  The real primary election will be in TN-9.

Huh?  Shelby County is around half of the district's population.

Population of Shelby County   (911,438)
Tennessee's pop/9                -(670,978)  Let's take TN-9, which is wholly in Shelby out
                                                240,560
                                               -(30,000) Let's take out part of TN-8 (parts of Frayser and Millington)
This leaves about 210,000 in Shelby TN-7 or about 1/3 of a Congressional district.
It's basically just Germantown (40,000), Collierville (30,000), Cordova (50,000), Bartlett (40,000), and very low population areas like Arlington, Lakeland, and Eads. Don't let the big houses out there fool you. There aren't that many people

You are looking at census data, I'm looking at primary votes. (and using Al's data, I think there are closer to 260-270,000 residents of TN-7 in Shelby)

Shelby County was 44% of the electorate in the 2002 August Republican primary, 54.5% of the electorate in the 2004 primary, and 42.8% of the electorate in the 2006 primary.

2002 R Primary
Shelby: 40,876 (44% of district)
TN-7 Total: 92,868

2004 R Primary:
Shelby: 14,293 (55% of district)
TN-7 Total: 26,237

2006 R Primary:
Shelby: 27,996 (43% of district)
TN-7 Total: 65,378

[memphis]

The growth numbers really don't favor Shelby County given that the fastest growing area in the state is the other side of her district in Williamson County. I also don't think that primary numbers in uncontested elections tell you a lot. My original comment and the ensuing discussion was about overall population.  While primary numbers from a contested election are probably more relavent to a primary election, it wasn't what we were talking about. I am also curious as to where you think all these people live. I've spelled out my estimates. Are there 70,000 people hiding behind a cow in Arlington?

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

The growth numbers really don't favor Shelby County given that the fastest growing area in the state is the other side of her district in Williamson County. I also don't think that primary numbers in uncontested elections tell you a lot. My original comment and the ensuing discussion was about overall population.  While primary numbers from a contested election are probably more relavent to a primary election, it wasn't what we were talking about.

Then use the 2002 data where the election was heavily contested in all parts of the district.  There was also a GOP Senate race on the ballot at the 2006 election.  Wiliamson County ranges from 7.5% to 19% of the voters in those 3 elections, and people who just move in to an area usually aren't the most motivated primary voters.  Anyway, Collierville has been the first (and I think is now the second) fastest growing city in the state.

Are there 70,000 people hiding behind a cow in Arlington?

I live near Arlington, and yes there are.     I don't know why we are arguing about this, I am just trying to share some data to clarify the facts of the situation.

[Spaghetti Cat]

From the right?  What part about her isn't conservative, exactly?

She has breasts.

So you're suggesting that every Democratic congresswoman has a great body?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

From the right?  What part about her isn't conservative, exactly?

She has breasts.

So you're suggesting that every Democratic congresswoman has a great body?

I don't think you could have misread his post worse if you tried.

[Spaghetti Cat]

Wow, I feel incredibly stupid.  Totally misread that, sorry.  Very long day.

[minionofmidas]

and she is Black (Nikki Tinker). Does that mean it's all settled and she has the primary more or less sewn up? Or doesn't it (for it might not)?

Comment from Tennesseans welcome.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow, she's kind of hot. I'd still vote for Cohen though.

[memphis]

Hmmm, somehow this thread combined two threads. Blackburn in TN-7 is very safe, both in her primary and in the general. Cohen will have a challenging primary, though Tinker will not be his only opponent. Best case scenario for him, his opponents will split the black vote (as they did in 06) and he will win with 30 something percent.

http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2008/apr/03/tinker-3-others-file-run-against-cohen/

[minionofmidas]

Ah, so that list I saw was probably not updated since the filing deadline.

The House of Ford is running an independent campaign again, I see.