Latest battleground state poll averages

[millwx]

Here are the latest month-long state poll averages as of 8/21.  As I always say, let me point out that this is totally objective; I make no judgment as to a poll's credibility.  While I believe this is generally good, it can also be dangerous... for example, in Tennessee I think 90% of us on this forum believe Bush to be ahead, but because of the lack of polling, we're left with mainly the highly questionable (to be nice) Zogby results... putting Kerry slightly ahead (though a SUSA poll does at least show it to be close as well).  These poll averages are, essentially, for the last month.  Where there are only one or two polls for the last month (that's uncommon in these are battleground states), I extend back week by week until I obtain at least three polls.  That, I suppose, arguably, is "subjective".  Anyway, here are the averages in the states that some may believe close...

Arizona:  Bush +4.6% (3 polls)
Arkansas:  Bush +1.3% (3 polls)
Colorado:  Bush +1.6% (3 polls)
Florida:  Kerry +1.3% (9 polls)
Iowa:  Kerry +1.9% (6 polls)
Maine:  Kerry +2.7% (3 polls)
Michigan:  Kerry +6.5% (8 polls)
Minnesota:  Kerry +4.5% (6 polls)
Missouri:  Bush +0.2% (6 polls)
Nevada:  Bush +0.5% (6 polls)
New Hampshire:  Kerry +5.5% (4 polls)
New Mexico:  Kerry +5.0% (5 polls)
North Carolina:  Bush +5.0% (5 polls)
Ohio:  Bush +0.2% (11 polls)
Oregon:  Kerry +6.8% (4 polls)
Pennsylvania:  Kerry +6.0% (8 polls)
Tennessee:  Kerry +0.3% (3 polls)
Virginia:  Bush +3.7% (3 polls)
Washington:  Kerry +7.3% (7 polls)
West Virginia:  Kerry +1.0% (3 polls)
Wisconsin:  Kerry +1.8% (4 polls)

Subjectively, I see these numbers easily twisted for either candidate.  For Bush, he's tightened some of the Kerry-favored battlegrounds, like NM, and taken back a few (both AR and MO have, at times, tilted slightly to Kerry in these poll averages).  Meanwhile, he's not even had his convention boost yet!  Plus, Kerry being up in more of these close states makes it relatively easy for Bush to swipe a few of these away.  For Kerry, these poll averages already have him well ahead (Kerry 307EVs, Bush 231EVs).  He's also a bit more secure in his battleground states... 5% or better leads break down as 5 states and 65EVs for Kerry and 1 state and 15EVs for Bush.  Finally, there is some weak historical evidence to suggest that Kerry will garner some last minute Nader votes and a slight majority of the undecideds... possibly flipping MO, OH, NV and others (AR and CO?) to Kerry.

[mddem2004]

Good info millwx.....

[Reignman]

307 Kerry     231 Bush




247 Kerry    180 Bush     111 tossup


if election were held today, and these polls are accurate...

[© tweed]

There is no way Kerry is winning in Tennessee

[Reignman]

given the polling data and that we've yet to see a Bush bounce, this would appear to be a reasonable prediction:

Kerry: 281 to 257

[A18]

My completely objective opinion:



Thus putting Kerry in a comfortable position to be the first President since Washington to get unanimous consent among the electors.

...But then the thought of Kerry delivering a state of the union address enters their minds, and they all vote Bush.

Accuracy of about +/- 2 electors.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

If held today



Kerry   338
Bush    200

Kerry gets most of the undecideds, flipping the closest states.  

[A18]

Needless to say, my in-depth analysis was far more scientific and well-backed...

[muon2]

Consider that the GOP convention is coming up and, assume that Bush gets about a 2-3% boost in the battleground states. The projection would probably be about Bush 292 - Kerry 246, based on this map:

[AuH2O]

Keep in mind, Kerry is almost certain to lose Iowa and New Mexico if he loses the popular vote.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

The big story with these averages is simple, the fact that Kerry has all but wrapped up the Gore states.  

Look, you've heard this before, but to make my point, I will say it again.  The number of undecideds is VERY small.  The country is very much divided, and most people already have their minds made up.  Unless a sudden huge bombshell, these polls are unlikely to dramatically sway in any direction.  What you have be happy with if you support Kerry is the polls out of the closest Gore states.  Look at some of these states that fell within 4-5% last time.

Michigan:  Kerry +6.5% (8 polls)
Minnesota:  Kerry +4.5% (6 polls)
New Mexico:  Kerry +5.0% (5 polls)
Oregon:  Kerry +6.8% (4 polls)
Pennsylvania:  Kerry +6.0% (8 polls)
Washington:  Kerry +7.3% (7 polls)

Not only that, but Bush isn't leading in ANY state Gore won, and Kerry is either leading (Florida, New Hampshire, West Virginia, Tennessee) or within 2% (Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio) of NINE Bush 2000 states.   **Although i dont believe the Tennessee one**  Even more, Bush may have to start playing defense in North Carolina (Bush +5)and Virginia (Bush +3.7), states he won handily in 2000.  **BTW, I still consider NC safe for Bush, but it's close**

Break that down into safe and unsafe EVs for both canidates.  



....and from these polls, its seeming more and more like Kerry already has 247!! EVs locked up.  Bush, only 167.  Hell, Kerry could throw a handful of cash at some of those close Gore states, and just set up shop in Florida, a state he's already leading in!  As of right now, this thing is sitting in Kerry's hands, and he'd have to be a bigger ass than i originally thought to blow this one.  

In conclusion, if you're a Kerry supporter, these polls make you happy.  

(And I know we havent had the RNC yet, but the DNC didn't do anthing for Kerry, and the RNC will barely do anything for Bush)

[Fritz]

Hey Hockey Dude, don't forget to vote!!!  Elections in progress...  

[AuH2O]

Not really. The election will mostly be in progress come November when people actually vote.

Note that "undecided" is a rather subjective term that varies from polling firm to polling firm. Further, historically candidates are more than capable of atrophying large portions of their erstwhile support.

Several months ago, I predicted Kerry would peak at 47% nationally. It appears I was pretty much on target. If the RNC goes poorly, Kerry might even hold 47 through to the election, losing narrowly. More likely, he will atrophy ~10% of his support starting with the RNC and lasting through the debates.

Kerry has not "locked" anything. If Bush rises in the polls, Kerry's imaginary leads in all these various states will disappear faster than the Indians' playoff chances.

[Fritz]

I was talking about our fantasy elections.  The real elections aren't til November.  Sorry for getting off-topic, but I just noticed Hockey Dude was online and hasnt voted yet.

[muon2]

(And I know we havent had the RNC yet, but the DNC didn't do anthing for Kerry, and the RNC will barely do anything for Bush)

It seems to me that thee has been a sustained increase of about 3% in the polls for Kerry since the VP announcement and DNC. It's reasonable to anticipate about the same effect for the RNC if it goes as well for Bush.

[Reignman]

It's doesn't look like Bush can win any Kerry states (as stated above), so it looks like Kerry just has to keep those states on maintenance and find 10 more electoral votes.