The Case for North Carolina: A Devil's Advocate Obamargument
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Author Topic: The Case for North Carolina: A Devil's Advocate Obamargument  (Read 2343 times)
Lunar
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« on: March 26, 2008, 11:03:49 PM »

I do not think that Obama will win this in a close election.  However, people are ignoring it.

Why?  It’s obviously a stage behind of Virginia in trending Democratic.  But, here are its advantages over Virginia and why in the Obama vs. McCain scenario (Which WILL happen) McCain will have to spend money there as well.

Virginia has a larger veteran population  I just think this is true, I don’t have any statistics, but anyone want to think that a bunch of 70 year old white guys who served in the military won’t support McCain?

Obama has more money Obama can threaten McCain on many fronts

North Carolina has a larger African-American population this will be much more energized than in previous elections

*THIS IS THE KEY* McCain **MAY** decrease turnout in his base   I’m of the opinion that McCain’s vice presidential choice will determine whether North Carolina will be remotely competitive.  Why?  It will show how McCain is planning on presenting himself.  Sanford is remarkably different than Lieberman/whoevsky and one may depress conservative votes.

Obama will have better grassroot organizations in the state stemming from Obama’s overall campaign strength advantage and the fact that Obama will be campaigning in a serious election in North Carolina in a few weeks while McCain will not.  Obama, love him or hate him, has had a historic demonstration of campaign organization and grassroots organization.

Voter registration This is an extension of the last point, but seriously, look at the numbers just out.

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This is obviously an imperfect measure, but one can’t ignore than 4 million voters are registered Democrat while only what, 4.2 million voted together in ’08 combined?  There are a zillion explanations (Reps and Indies leaning Democrat anyway switching, chief among them) but it can’t be ignored.

Thus, McCain will have to spend money in North Carolina media markets and organization to win the state.  Obama can pressure him here with his excess of cash and thus the state will matter in its McCain cash detraction from other, more important states.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2008, 07:46:29 AM »

This is what I have been saying for a long time but no one believes me. This is a good atricle about how NC has changed:

http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/strategist/2008/03/more_than_you_ever_wanted_to_k.php
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agcatter
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« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2008, 08:34:39 AM »

I'm all for Obama spending like crazy in North Carolina.  Bush only carried it by 13 points and that's with a Democratic NC senator on the ticket.  But hey, spend away.

While you're at it, why not spend a ton in Georgia, they have an even bigger black population and some "progressive" whites in the Atlanta suburbs.  Also, don't forget the students at the University of Georgia and Georgia Tech.

Why stop there?  How about Texas?  Lots of "energized" blacks in Dallas and Houston.  Think of all those college students in Austin and don't forget Hispanic voters in South Texas.  Plus, the superior organization of the Obama campaign could probably pull off the registration of illegal immigrants throughout the state.

We even had an Obama cultist yesterday claim that West Virginia would be a swing state with Obama at the head of the ticket.  It seems that no state is beyond the reach of this new political superman.

Yep, no state is out of reach of this new Messiah.  The Obama Nation!
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2008, 10:07:11 AM »

I'm all for Obama spending like crazy in North Carolina.  Bush only carried it by 13 points and that's with a Democratic NC senator on the ticket.  But hey, spend away.

While you're at it, why not spend a ton in Georgia, they have an even bigger black population and some "progressive" whites in the Atlanta suburbs.  Also, don't forget the students at the University of Georgia and Georgia Tech.

Why stop there?  How about Texas?  Lots of "energized" blacks in Dallas and Houston.  Think of all those college students in Austin and don't forget Hispanic voters in South Texas.  Plus, the superior organization of the Obama campaign could probably pull off the registration of illegal immigrants throughout the state.

We even had an Obama cultist yesterday claim that West Virginia would be a swing state with Obama at the head of the ticket.  It seems that no state is beyond the reach of this new political superman.

Yep, no state is out of reach of this new Messiah.  The Obama Nation!

Holy hyberbole batman. Is this any different from the numerous McCain supporters who think their messiah and his great "independent-ness" would put Massachusetts and California in play for the Republicans?
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2008, 10:15:46 AM »

Holy hyberbole batman. Is this any different from the numerous McCain supporters who think their messiah and his great "independent-ness" would put Massachusetts and California in play for the Republicans?

Honestly, I don't know anyone who feels that way about McCain, nor have I heard anyone seriously postulate that McCain will carry Massachusetts, but you can't swing a dead cat on the internet without finding someone who has a near cult-like devotion for Obama.
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MODU
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« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2008, 10:17:58 AM »



As far as the veteran population in VA, there is a decent sized population, but I think more reside in Florida.  In VA (particularily the DC Metro area), many retired military personnel turn right around and become gov't contractors and consultants.  They are found between DC and Spottsylvania due to all the various companies in the area.
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agcatter
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« Reply #6 on: March 27, 2008, 10:42:57 AM »

Ok, obviously I was using an over the top post to try and make a point.  For the record, I have no more tolerance for any post claiming McCain has a shot at  New Jersey either.  Let's keep it real folks. 

I'll concede Obama has a decent shot at Colorado and even Virginia,  Most realistic Dems will concede McCain has a shot at Pennsylvania.  Those are realistic.  However, putting states like New Jersey and North Carolina in play is lala land stuff.  The koolaid drinkers on both sides need to pull back a bit.

It will be a close election decided by one or two states either way.  Too many immovable electoral vote both ways.  NC is one of those immovables.

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specific_name
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« Reply #7 on: March 27, 2008, 11:09:04 AM »

NC isn't going to flip now, but maybe in 8 or 12 years (even though who knows, there may be a realignment by then).
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #8 on: March 27, 2008, 01:14:29 PM »

How many people here live in NC and talk to people all over the state every day? I do, I'm not saying NC is going to flip to the democratic side, but it will be closer then people are playing it out to be.
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Lunar
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« Reply #9 on: March 27, 2008, 02:01:11 PM »

My argument was not that Obama will win NC.  It was that McCain will have to spent money and organizational strength defending it. 

Kerry was himself a veteran too y'all, maybe causing some strength in some communities that Obama will do more poorly in.

A question for Southerners:  Is a black man from Chicago substantially different from a New England liberal in terms of stigma?  Please don't be dumb and biased and talk about a Blank Panther Nation of Islam advocate, let's assume that Obama can define himself better than his opponents for the purpose for this question.

Personally, if Hillary had a shot, I'd be more interested in her chances at Arkansas.  But she doesn't and I'm not.

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exopolitician
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« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2008, 02:19:42 PM »

Holy hyberbole batman. Is this any different from the numerous McCain supporters who think their messiah and his great "independent-ness" would put Massachusetts and California in play for the Republicans?

Honestly, I don't know anyone who feels that way about McCain, nor have I heard anyone seriously postulate that McCain will carry Massachusetts, but you can't swing a dead cat on the internet without finding someone who has a near cult-like devotion for Obama.

AHDuke has it in his head that with Obama it puts Connecticut and Mass in play for McCain. Ive also heard California being in play too floating around the forums, but yeah thats the jist of it...Tongue
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JSojourner
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« Reply #11 on: March 27, 2008, 02:53:38 PM »

I'm all for Obama spending like crazy in North Carolina.  Bush only carried it by 13 points and that's with a Democratic NC senator on the ticket.  But hey, spend away.

While you're at it, why not spend a ton in Georgia, they have an even bigger black population and some "progressive" whites in the Atlanta suburbs.  Also, don't forget the students at the University of Georgia and Georgia Tech.

Why stop there?  How about Texas?  Lots of "energized" blacks in Dallas and Houston.  Think of all those college students in Austin and don't forget Hispanic voters in South Texas.  Plus, the superior organization of the Obama campaign could probably pull off the registration of illegal immigrants throughout the state.

We even had an Obama cultist yesterday claim that West Virginia would be a swing state with Obama at the head of the ticket.  It seems that no state is beyond the reach of this new political superman.

Yep, no state is out of reach of this new Messiah.  The Obama Nation!

Holy hyberbole batman. Is this any different from the numerous McCain supporters who think their messiah and his great "independent-ness" would put Massachusetts and California in play for the Republicans?

No.  Both are equally ludicrous.  I'm not sure the map will look exactly like it did in 2004.  But I am not terribly impressed with Democratic predictions of sweeping the Plains states and the upper South...or with Republican insistence on McCain delivering Maine and California. 

Could McCain pick off New Hampshire or Michigan?  Surely.  Could Obama make a race of it in Missouri or Colorado?  You bet.  But I have no delusions either way.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #12 on: March 27, 2008, 03:21:56 PM »



A question for Southerners:  Is a black man from Chicago substantially different from a New England liberal in terms of stigma? 


electorally, New England Liberal is probably worse. Both are about equally off-putting to white evangelicals (though the New England liberal is probably MORE off-putting if he comes from the only state in the union that allows gay marriage), but a black politician will rally the black vote in a way that a white New England Liberal can't.
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politicaltipster
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« Reply #13 on: March 27, 2008, 03:58:29 PM »

I don't buy the argument that Lieberman does much worse than Sanford in NC. Lieberman heavily campaigned for McCain in the primaries, and the result was that McCain beat Huckabee.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #14 on: March 27, 2008, 04:53:45 PM »

How many people here live in NC and talk to people all over the state every day? I do, I'm not saying NC is going to flip to the democratic side, but it will be closer then people are playing it out to be.

Yeah, I do.  I've spent a lot of time talking to people from Democratic areas like Durham, even more time talking to Northern transplants from Wake County, and still more talking to people from traditionally southern areas.  North Carolina's not switching by any stretch of the imagination nor will it be close.  It will be R+10% in even the most Democratic of situations.

I guess we will see.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
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« Reply #15 on: March 27, 2008, 05:35:50 PM »

Why do people keep insisting that this election will be a close one?  If this election turns out to be tilted to the Democrats, North Carolina will be in play.  Only if we have yet another close election will North Carolina be safely Republican for 2008.  I'll grant that North Carolina will not be the difference between whether Obama or McCain is President in 2009, but Obama might want to campaign there if the national election seems to be effectively decided by mid-October and some down ballot coattails are needed.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #16 on: March 27, 2008, 07:41:30 PM »

How many people here live in NC and talk to people all over the state every day? I do, I'm not saying NC is going to flip to the democratic side, but it will be closer then people are playing it out to be.

Josh, we know perfectly well that you don't talk to anyone.


Yea I know, I'm a loser who sit at home all day long and do nothing, please grow up. I'm a health tech at EMSI and I talk to 50 or more people a day from all over NC and 90% of them tell me how they are sick of Bush and the republican party.
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« Reply #17 on: March 31, 2008, 10:00:05 PM »

How many people here live in NC and talk to people all over the state every day? I do, I'm not saying NC is going to flip to the democratic side, but it will be closer then people are playing it out to be.

Josh, we know perfectly well that you don't talk to anyone.


Yea I know, I'm a loser who sit at home all day long and do nothing, please grow up. I'm a health tech at EMSI and I talk to 50 or more people a day from all over NC and 90% of them tell me how they are sick of Bush and the republican party.

That's great. That means Guilford County will go Democratic. I go to school in Chapel Hill, and everyone around here is goo goo for Obama. Does that mean he's going to win NC? The best the Dems can do in NC is 45%. It's not trending far to the Democrats. Plus, many of those eastern North Carolina Democrats will not vote for a black man. I've talked to many of them here too, and they support McCain over Obama. I'm glad 90% of the people you talk to daily hate the Republicans, but don't be surprised when NC doesn't go to Obama with 90% of the vote.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2008, 10:05:11 PM »

How many people here live in NC and talk to people all over the state every day? I do, I'm not saying NC is going to flip to the democratic side, but it will be closer then people are playing it out to be.

Josh, we know perfectly well that you don't talk to anyone.


Yea I know, I'm a loser who sit at home all day long and do nothing, please grow up. I'm a health tech at EMSI and I talk to 50 or more people a day from all over NC and 90% of them tell me how they are sick of Bush and the republican party.

That's great. That means Guilford County will go Democratic. I go to school in Chapel Hill, and everyone around here is goo goo for Obama. Does that mean he's going to win NC? The best the Dems can do in NC is 45%. It's not trending far to the Democrats. Plus, many of those eastern North Carolina Democrats will not vote for a black man. I've talked to many of them here too, and they support McCain over Obama. I'm glad 90% of the people you talk to daily hate the Republicans, but don't be surprised when NC doesn't go to Obama with 90% of the vote.

I have people come in from all over the state, not just Guilford county.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #19 on: March 31, 2008, 10:20:30 PM »

How many people here live in NC and talk to people all over the state every day? I do, I'm not saying NC is going to flip to the democratic side, but it will be closer then people are playing it out to be.

Josh, we know perfectly well that you don't talk to anyone.


Yea I know, I'm a loser who sit at home all day long and do nothing, please grow up. I'm a health tech at EMSI and I talk to 50 or more people a day from all over NC and 90% of them tell me how they are sick of Bush and the republican party.

That's great. That means Guilford County will go Democratic. I go to school in Chapel Hill, and everyone around here is goo goo for Obama. Does that mean he's going to win NC? The best the Dems can do in NC is 45%. It's not trending far to the Democrats. Plus, many of those eastern North Carolina Democrats will not vote for a black man. I've talked to many of them here too, and they support McCain over Obama. I'm glad 90% of the people you talk to daily hate the Republicans, but don't be surprised when NC doesn't go to Obama with 90% of the vote.

I have people come in from all over the state, not just Guilford county.

Again, that's great, but baring a Dem landslide, NC will go to the GOP +8-10% or so. The Triangle isn't big enough to influence the race that much, and Charlotte and the Triad aroud 50/50 when you factor in Guilford, Forsyth, Mecklenberg, and Davidson counties.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #20 on: March 31, 2008, 10:26:36 PM »

How many people here live in NC and talk to people all over the state every day? I do, I'm not saying NC is going to flip to the democratic side, but it will be closer then people are playing it out to be.

Josh, we know perfectly well that you don't talk to anyone.


Yea I know, I'm a loser who sit at home all day long and do nothing, please grow up. I'm a health tech at EMSI and I talk to 50 or more people a day from all over NC and 90% of them tell me how they are sick of Bush and the republican party.

That's great. That means Guilford County will go Democratic. I go to school in Chapel Hill, and everyone around here is goo goo for Obama. Does that mean he's going to win NC? The best the Dems can do in NC is 45%. It's not trending far to the Democrats. Plus, many of those eastern North Carolina Democrats will not vote for a black man. I've talked to many of them here too, and they support McCain over Obama. I'm glad 90% of the people you talk to daily hate the Republicans, but don't be surprised when NC doesn't go to Obama with 90% of the vote.

I have people come in from all over the state, not just Guilford county.

Again, that's great, but baring a Dem landslide, NC will go to the GOP +8-10% or so. The Triangle isn't big enough to influence the race that much, and Charlotte and the Triad aroud 50/50 when you factor in Guilford, Forsyth, Mecklenberg, and Davidson counties.

Guilford, Meclenberg and Wake will all go to Obama 56-44 this year. Them three counties make up 24% of the population of NC.
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Torie
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« Reply #21 on: March 31, 2008, 10:29:30 PM »

The black percentage in Virginia is 20%, and NC 22%, so that factor strikes me as pretty marginal.
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #22 on: March 31, 2008, 10:30:40 PM »

The black percentage in Virginia is 20%, and NC 22%, so that factor strikes me as pretty marginal.

Blacks make up 20% of the regs voters in NC.
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« Reply #23 on: March 31, 2008, 11:05:13 PM »

How many people here live in NC and talk to people all over the state every day? I do, I'm not saying NC is going to flip to the democratic side, but it will be closer then people are playing it out to be.

Josh, we know perfectly well that you don't talk to anyone.


Yea I know, I'm a loser who sit at home all day long and do nothing, please grow up. I'm a health tech at EMSI and I talk to 50 or more people a day from all over NC and 90% of them tell me how they are sick of Bush and the republican party.

That's great. That means Guilford County will go Democratic. I go to school in Chapel Hill, and everyone around here is goo goo for Obama. Does that mean he's going to win NC? The best the Dems can do in NC is 45%. It's not trending far to the Democrats. Plus, many of those eastern North Carolina Democrats will not vote for a black man. I've talked to many of them here too, and they support McCain over Obama. I'm glad 90% of the people you talk to daily hate the Republicans, but don't be surprised when NC doesn't go to Obama with 90% of the vote.

I have people come in from all over the state, not just Guilford county.

Again, that's great, but baring a Dem landslide, NC will go to the GOP +8-10% or so. The Triangle isn't big enough to influence the race that much, and Charlotte and the Triad aroud 50/50 when you factor in Guilford, Forsyth, Mecklenberg, and Davidson counties.

Guilford, Meclenberg and Wake will all go to Obama 56-44 this year. Them three counties make up 24% of the population of NC.

Well until we see it, you can make that assumption all day long. Wake County went 51-49% for Bush in 2004. It's going to swing that wildly? Guilford was a 50/50 split, and Mec was 52-48. It's possible it goes 56-44, but unlikely. You must be assuming Obama wins in a landslide. In a 50/50 race, they don't go Democrat that dramatically. I could be wrong, but I still don't see NC being the New York of the south as you call it.
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Monty
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« Reply #24 on: March 31, 2008, 11:10:36 PM »

NC is irrelevant.  Obama would already have 300 in the bank before NC is really in play.
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