CA-PPIC: Obama leads McCain by 9, Clinton by just 3

[Alcon]

Hillary is not going to lose California, perhaps 54-45.

If she continues to struggle among Western independents, and loses the election, I could see her doing even worse than that.  California isn't as Democratic as people tend to remember it being - Kerry won it by under 10 points in 2004.  It was only a few points more Democratic than Washington and less so than Hawai'i.

[Alcon]

He isn't being challenged, he isn't really being questioned. He's going to ride well in the polls until the Nomination is decided. There's no real evidence to suggest that Clinton would have a harder time in CA.

Than Obama?

I disagree.  Western independents didn't poll favorably for Clinton even before Obama was in the race.  It is not a group she will ever fill Obama's potential in.  I don't think California will be competitive in even a semi-competitive race - I'm just saying, McCain could do better than 54-45.  In fact, in an even race, 54-45 isn't a bad prediction.