Is being popular in high-growth areas a problem for Republicans?
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  Is being popular in high-growth areas a problem for Republicans?
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Author Topic: Is being popular in high-growth areas a problem for Republicans?  (Read 1385 times)
memphis
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« on: March 27, 2008, 12:58:01 PM »

We've all heard how proud the Republicans are to be so popular in fast growing areas.  However, I'm thinking this is really a drawback.  It isn't that the number of Republicans is growing. It's just that most of the people who move to newly developed areas are Republicans. However, districts are only re-apportioned for population every ten years. For the last few elections of each decade, Republicans (on average, not in every case) represent districts with many more people than the Dems, who are in urban districts that are losing population.  Thoughts?
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strangeland
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« Reply #1 on: March 27, 2008, 01:18:18 PM »

people move to exurbs, start attending megachurches, driving SUVs, and voting republican.

however, now that the real estate bust and the subprime crisis have put a brake on exurb development, the republicans will no longer be able to benefit from this trend.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: March 27, 2008, 01:37:48 PM »

We've all heard how proud the Republicans are to be so popular in fast growing areas.  However, I'm thinking this is really a drawback.  It isn't that the number of Republicans is growing. It's just that most of the people who move to newly developed areas are Republicans. However, districts are only re-apportioned for population every ten years. For the last few elections of each decade, Republicans (on average, not in every case) represent districts with many more people than the Dems, who are in urban districts that are losing population.  Thoughts?

The factor's outweighed by Republican incumbents hanging on in inner-suburban districts even as their constituencies grow more and more Democratic. That's why it took until the early 2000s to see a realignment on Long Island, 2006 in the Philly suburbs and 2008 for districts in Illinois, Minnesota, Ohio.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #3 on: March 27, 2008, 01:53:12 PM »

people move to exurbs, start attending megachurches, driving SUVs, and voting republican.

The same sort of rubbish was written of people moving to the suburbs in the '50's (I can even dig up a quote that looks rather like the one above). Guess what? It wasn't true then and isn't true now; very few people change their voting habits just because they've moved to a different sort of neighbourhood. If they vote Republican now, chances are that they were voting Republican back where they used to live.
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BRTD
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« Reply #4 on: March 27, 2008, 01:57:27 PM »

people move to exurbs, start attending megachurches, driving SUVs, and voting republican.

The same sort of rubbish was written of people moving to the suburbs in the '50's (I can even dig up a quote that looks rather like the one above). Guess what? It wasn't true then and isn't true now; very few people change their voting habits just because they've moved to a different sort of neighbourhood. If they vote Republican now, chances are that they were voting Republican back where they used to live.

Very true. Of course so many on this forum seem to think I'll randomly move to one and start voting Republican for some reason.
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AndrewTX
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« Reply #5 on: March 27, 2008, 02:08:49 PM »


Very true. Of course so many on this forum seem to think I'll randomly move to one and start voting Republican for some reason.

It's true. A bunch of us got together, and collectively came to the conclusion that we need to get you moving into one ASAP, and get another blue avatar on the forum. BBTD!!11!1
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SomeLawStudent
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« Reply #6 on: March 28, 2008, 09:08:10 PM »

I don't think they're winning high-growth areas because more republicans are moving in.  They're winning them because high-growth areas tend to be cheaper Cost of Living Wise and people in general are moving in.  Also, in Texas, Florida, California, a lot of the high-growth areas are in Republican districts but most of the people moving in are hispanics.
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memphis
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« Reply #7 on: March 28, 2008, 10:26:14 PM »

I don't think they're winning high-growth areas because more republicans are moving in.  They're winning them because high-growth areas tend to be cheaper Cost of Living Wise and people in general are moving in.  Also, in Texas, Florida, California, a lot of the high-growth areas are in Republican districts but most of the people moving in are hispanics.

High growth areas, even places like Texas and Florida, are not very Hispanic for their region. I'm talking about places like Denton, Collin, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Williamson Counties, TX and Pasco, Lake, and St. John's Counties, FL. All these counties are awash in new Republicans, moving in by the tens of thousands. They are all moving away from cities, which are seeing new Hispanics.
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ottermax
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« Reply #8 on: March 29, 2008, 12:54:54 AM »

I don't think they're winning high-growth areas because more republicans are moving in.  They're winning them because high-growth areas tend to be cheaper Cost of Living Wise and people in general are moving in.  Also, in Texas, Florida, California, a lot of the high-growth areas are in Republican districts but most of the people moving in are hispanics.

High growth areas, even places like Texas and Florida, are not very Hispanic for their region. I'm talking about places like Denton, Collin, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Williamson Counties, TX and Pasco, Lake, and St. John's Counties, FL. All these counties are awash in new Republicans, moving in by the tens of thousands. They are all moving away from cities, which are seeing new Hispanics.

Plus, the Hispanic growth is from immigrants who can't/don't vote.
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cannonia
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« Reply #9 on: March 29, 2008, 04:26:46 AM »

Around Sacramento and Stockton, new construction means less agricultural land, which would mean displacement of Hispanics living and working on the farms or dairies.  Plenty of (higher-income) Hispanics have been moving in, but it's a wave of immigration from the Bay Area, so it's a very diverse population in general.

But it is a matter of lifestyle:  For a young Bay Area family looking for an affordable house in a good school district, Elk Grove looks much better than most places around the Bay.  Conversely, younger, leftier types like SF better.

Both the Central Valley and places like Riverside and San Bernardino Counties have been growing rapidly and trending Republican.  That's not a problem for the Republicans here; it could make the state competitive again.
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memphis
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« Reply #10 on: March 29, 2008, 10:12:35 AM »


Both the Central Valley and places like Riverside and San Bernardino Counties have been growing rapidly and trending Republican.  That's not a problem for the Republicans here; it could make the state competitive again.

I don't think so. I see it as, more or less, a shuffling of the same population. When the Republicans leave for the Valley, it just means that the coast is that much more Democratic.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #11 on: March 29, 2008, 02:39:48 PM »

This article highlights the problems of Republican reps with high-growth, high-default districts and the conflicting pressures from constituents and the party leadership.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/30/washington/30bailout.html?hp
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