What if Roe is overturned.

[Person Man]

Now, I am not talking about what the status of abortion in America would be. I am talking about the political repurcussions about the event and how it will effect the history of our country.

[Silent Hunter]

Now, I am not talking about what the status of abortion in America would be. I am talking about the political repurcussions about the event and how it will effect the history of our country.

Abortion goes back to being a state issue, as it was pre-Roe v. Wader.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

The positions will be reversed.  The liberals will be focusing on overturning the Court's latest decision, and the RR will be trying to uphold it.

[Person Man]

I don't think you understand. I am talking about how it will change the direction of all politics. Will it create a backlash against the RR or give them momentum? ...and that's one peice of the puzzle right there .

[Padfoot]

15-20 years after it happens all states that make abortion illegal will see a marked increase in crime rates.

[Meeker]

It would be political disaster for the Republicans. Whenever a Legislature tried to outlaw abortion in anything other than a solidly red state the backlash amongst independents and moderate Republican voters would be huge. When they didn't try to the religious right would feel betrayed. Effectively it would contribute greatly to the demise of the Republican coalition.

So please, go ahead and do it

[Person Man]

What will be the reaction to that?
How will the partys' position change?
How will people's positions on abortion change?
Which states will ban abortion?
What will be the immediate politcal fallout?
When do you see Roe being overturned?

I would try to answer these questions myself, but I do not know whether there will be a reaction or a built momentum.

[Gustaf]

It would become a state-level issue. On balance, I'd expect Democrats to benefit from it, but not by a large amount.

[bullmoose88]

Couple of thoughts

1) Abortion is a wedge issue for social conservatives.  Roe (and its progeny) forged the pro-life faction, a minority of the US population according to polling, into a well oiled organized group that has overcome its lack of numbers.  Being on the "attack" has helped keep the alliance together.  Being on defense may not provide the (I don't know the word for it) but Ummph, for them to stay together as rabidly.

2) Stems from 1, this may force all of those who favored the prochoice stance (indies, moderate GOPers, etc) into finally using their numbers in a fashion that the prolife group used/uses theirs.

3) Issues of travel between states for pregnant women, complicated by the fact of a right to travel

4) Issues dealing with miscarriages in certain situations.  Perhaps doctors coming under increasing scrutiny for procedures that lead to the fetus' death etc...

5) Roe was built on the right to privacy...removing abortion as a right may erode the bigger right to privacy.

Not saying any or all will happen...just things to think about

[dead0man]

It would become a state-level issue. On balance, I'd expect Democrats to benefit from it, but not by a large amount.

[Aizen]

What states do you think would ban it?

[Ban my account ffs!]

It would become a states-issue and birth rates would rise slightly in the states that outlawed it... but most would just travel to states that allowed it in order to have one.  (Still, the people who couldn't afford that would just have the baby and then there would be a crime rate rise several years later).

It would generally be very bad for the country.

[Ban my account ffs!]

What states do you think would ban it?

[Meeker]

I doubt Alaska would ban. Too libertarian.

Louisiana would unquestionably ban.

[Willy Woz]

Abortion will become illegal in most states, and for about a year many women will seek back-alley abortions. Then 10% of those women will die, and 25% will be seriously injured, and the next year the rate of back-alley abortions will significantly decrease.

What states do you think would ban it?

Yes, Louisiana and Arkansas, those pro-choice strongholds, will keep their abortion laws while that Bible belt in the Dakotas and Alaska will certainly back pro-life.

[dead0man]

I wonder if these are the same people that said there will be a bloodbath if we allow concealed carry laws to pass.  How'd that go?

[Person Man]

Could you see organized crime spreading into the suburbs as those who can't afford to travel and still want an abortion will get them illegally by drug dealers?


This what I think the map would look like-

Those getting an "F" or "D-" by NARAL or have a pro-life majority

Abortion would still be as available as it is except for in the Missippi Delta (LA, MS, AR) and Southern Appalachia (TN, NC and SC). 

[Person Man]

Abortion will become illegal in most states, and for about a year many women will seek back-alley abortions. Then 10% of those women will die, and 25% will be seriously injured, and the next year the rate of back-alley abortions will significantly decrease.

What states do you think would ban it?

Yes, Louisiana and Arkansas, those pro-choice strongholds, will keep their abortion laws while that Bible belt in the Dakotas and Alaska will certainly back pro-life.

What do you mean by "many"? If you are saying that reversing Roe would be a de-facto ban on abortion and then the abortion rate won't go down right away, we could be talking about a million people getting abortions and if 10% die,
that's 100,000 dead. That type of abuse would create A HUGE backlash....and the pre-teens and teens of the 2010s could be the most pro-abortion rights generation in American history.
Then again, if 100,000 die, it could be spun into creating an anti-abortion consensus in the United States by simply saying that abortions are too dangerous to be allowed and whether life begins when dad cums,
abortion is simply another drug epidemic and should be treated as such.


If this happens, I don't think embryonic stem cell research would be stopped most of congress and all presidential candidates favor it. So, in terms of bioethics, we could be like Iran or Brazil. ...and with the liberalization gun laws and the clamping down on social undesirables, yes there could be a bloodbath.
Then again, crime will increase by 25% by 2030 and by then, the ethic banned abortion could go on and take away most of our freedom.

[Willy Woz]

This is my interpretation, based on polls as well as "pro-life constitutional amendments":

[Stranger in a strange land]

I would cackle manically as the Republican culture wars coalition fell apart. It would become impossible for them to win elections in the midwest and evangelicals would go back to not caring about politics.

[Willy Woz]

Abortion will become illegal in most states, and for about a year many women will seek back-alley abortions. Then 10% of those women will die, and 25% will be seriously injured, and the next year the rate of back-alley abortions will significantly decrease.

What states do you think would ban it?

Yes, Louisiana and Arkansas, those pro-choice strongholds, will keep their abortion laws while that Bible belt in the Dakotas and Alaska will certainly back pro-life.

What do you mean by "many"? If you are saying that reversing Roe would be a de-facto ban on abortion and then the abortion rate won't go down right away, we could be talking about a million people getting abortions and if 10% die,
that's 100,000 dead. That type of abuse would create A HUGE backlash....and the pre-teens and teens of the 2010s could be the most pro-abortion rights generation in American history.
Then again, if 100,000 die, it could be spun into creating an anti-abortion consensus in the United States by simply saying that abortions are too dangerous to be allowed and whether life begins when dad cums,
abortion is simply another drug epidemic and should be treated as such.


If this happens, I don't think embryonic stem cell research would be stopped most of congress and all presidential candidates favor it. So, in terms of bioethics, we could be like Iran or Brazil. ...and with the liberalization gun laws and the clamping down on social undesirables, yes there could be a bloodbath.
Then again, crime will increase by 25% by 2030 and by then, the ethic banned abortion could go on and take away most of our freedom.

Good Lord. Now that is a strange theory.

But my point is, no safe abortion means two choices: have a baby or risk your own personal health with an unsafe abortion. It has been repeatedly estimated that 10% of women who get unsafe abortions die from complications involved in the procedure. That's why abortion rates were remarkably low even in previous times when abortion was legal, say, in ancient Greece.

[Ban my account ffs!]

This is my interpretation, based on polls as well as "pro-life constitutional amendments":

I would make only 1 change to my map:  Alaska allows abortion.

Tennessee, West Virginia, and Indiana have state constitutional protections for abortion which are stronger than the current federal level of protection.

States that have clauses in their constitution that protect abortion above and beyond the federal level:

Oregon
California
Montana
New Mexico
Arizona
Alaska
Minnesota
Illinois
Indiana
Tennessee
West Virginia
Florida
New Jersey
Connecticut
Massachusetts
Vermont

[Person Man]

But things could change quickly because most of these decisions are based on case law.

Also, there could be safe and illegal abortions and it some countries unsafe and illegal abortions doesn't deter abortions at all. More pregnancies end in abortion in Chile than in the U.S..

[bullmoose88]

I would cackle manically as the Republican culture wars coalition fell apart. It would become impossible for them to win elections in the midwest and evangelicals would go back to not caring about politics.

Uhh...in which case you'd probably see a re-alignment based again on economics rather than wedge social issues.

[Frodo]

If Roe vs. Wade is overturned, then logic dictates it would work to Democrats' favor every bit as much as the original ruling helped the Republican Party for over a generation.  Certainly Republicans could slip among women every bit as much as they have already slipped among Hispanics.

Beyond this, I cannot say for certain what will happen.  There would be larger factors at work before the Democratic Party becomes every bit as dominant as Republicans were just a few years ago.