Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 01, 2014, 04:33:03 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  2008 Elections
| | |-+  Let's play armchair quarterback
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 Print
Poll
Question: Did Hillary undestimate the Big O?  
Yep
Nope
Show Pie Chart

Author Topic: Let's play armchair quarterback  (Read 1959 times)
Grumps
GM3PRP
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34312
Korea, Democratic People's Republic of
View Profile
« on: March 31, 2008, 08:30:19 am »
Ignore

AND....what should she have done differently?
Logged

I only had 3 sandwiches instead of my normal 4.

Also, shut up NewYorkExpress you creep.



WalterMitty
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21043


Political Matrix
E: 1.68, S: -2.26

View Profile
« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2008, 08:41:55 am »
Ignore

her biggest mistake (possibly a fatal mistake for her candidacy) was that she had absolutely no plan post-feb. 5.  her campaign was convinced that she would wrap it up on super tuesday, when she didnt they had no idea what to do.  and obama won 12 in a row.

she should have put up a bigger fight in some of those post feb 5th contests.  instead she just ran off to texas and ohio.
Logged


I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today
Grumps
GM3PRP
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34312
Korea, Democratic People's Republic of
View Profile
« Reply #2 on: March 31, 2008, 08:47:01 am »
Ignore

her biggest mistake (possibly a fatal mistake for her candidacy) was that she had absolutely no plan post-feb. 5.  her campaign was convinced that she would wrap it up on super tuesday, when she didnt they had no idea what to do.  and obama won 12 in a row.

she should have put up a bigger fight in some of those post feb 5th contests.  instead she just ran off to texas and ohio.

I completely agree.....she thought the nails would be in the Big O's political coffin after Super Tuesday.  I also don't thinks she's been very inspiring since those 12 losses....she seems deflated (although I can understand why).
Logged

I only had 3 sandwiches instead of my normal 4.

Also, shut up NewYorkExpress you creep.



Torie
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 27430
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2008, 09:02:37 am »
Ignore

She needed to work harder in all those caucus states.
Logged

J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32039
United States


View Profile
« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2008, 09:31:37 am »
Ignore

her biggest mistake (possibly a fatal mistake for her candidacy) was that she had absolutely no plan post-feb. 5.  her campaign was convinced that she would wrap it up on super tuesday, when she didnt they had no idea what to do.  and obama won 12 in a row.

she should have put up a bigger fight in some of those post feb 5th contests.  instead she just ran off to texas and ohio.

I completely agree.....she thought the nails would be in the Big O's political coffin after Super Tuesday.  I also don't thinks she's been very inspiring since those 12 losses....she seems deflated (although I can understand why).

I think both candidates thought it would have been over on Super Tuesday, at least initially.  I think Obama expected it to be over by March 4.  Since then, there have been problems.

I keep going back to the American Civil War analogy.  Both sides thought it would be a quick "glorious" war.  The real question is, who is Grant and who is Lee?  Were those twelve victories for Obama the Peninsula Campaign or the Wilderness Campaign?

All that said, PA, NC and IN are the key and Hilliary needs a +35 net in those.
Logged

J. J.

"Actually, .. now that you mention it...." 
- Londo Molari

"Every government are parliaments of whores.
The trouble is, in a democracy the whores are us." - P. J. O'Rourke

"Wa sala, wa lala."

(Zulu for, "You snooze, you lose.")
Bay Ridge, Bklyn! Born and Bred
MikeyCNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1191


Political Matrix
E: 1.94, S: -4.87

View Profile
« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2008, 09:52:32 am »
Ignore

what should she have done differently?


Stayed home.   

People simply do not like this woman.   Her unlikeability is so high, in fact, that even a relatively weak candidate like Obama can overtake her.
Logged
Grumps
GM3PRP
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34312
Korea, Democratic People's Republic of
View Profile
« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2008, 10:00:10 am »
Ignore

The real question is, who is Grant and who is Lee? 

Unless the war takes a sharp and unexpected turn, J. J., I think that's rather obvious.
Logged

I only had 3 sandwiches instead of my normal 4.

Also, shut up NewYorkExpress you creep.



Duke
AHDuke99
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20072


View Profile
« Reply #7 on: March 31, 2008, 10:53:22 am »
Ignore

She underestimated how much people dislike her, and her caucus organization was deplorable. She's hasn't come close to beating him in any of these states. Granted, I think caucuses should be done away with, but that doesn't matter in this race. However, she was at a disadvantage because many of her voters were elderly and may have been unable to go caucusing. Absentees were also not counted, and that hurt her as well.
Logged
ukchris82
Full Member
***
Posts: 180
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #8 on: March 31, 2008, 11:17:21 am »
Ignore



I think Hillary should have skipped Iowa,
Logged
MODU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 22107
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #9 on: March 31, 2008, 12:26:46 pm »
Ignore


I think it was less that she underestimated Obama and more that she overestimated herself.
Logged

Attention bloggers:  Join SeededBuzz and gain access to thousands of new readers.  Simply paste a link and summary of your article for community members to link back to, drawing more activity to your site.  Membership is FREE!

Visit MODU's Musings


"Anybody who doesn't appreciate what America has done and President Bush, let them go to hell." - Betty Dawisha, Iraqi vote
Wakie
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3809


View Profile
« Reply #10 on: March 31, 2008, 12:31:11 pm »
Ignore

I think it was less that she underestimated Obama and more that she overestimated herself.

I think it is a combination of the the two but generally I'd agree.  I'd also say she didn't learn the "Shirley Chisholm Lesson" (Rep Chisholm said "Of my 2 'handicaps' being female put more obstacles in my path than being black.")
Logged
Mr. Morden
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19822
United States


View Profile
« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2008, 12:59:07 pm »
Ignore

I think both candidates thought it would have been over on Super Tuesday, at least initially.

Yes, that's true.  It wasn't that Clinton arrogantly thought that Obama would be finished on Super Tuesday.  It was that Clinton (like most other people) thought it would basically be over one way or the other on Super Tuesday.  That it would be too difficult for the loser of Super Tuesday to ever stage a comeback, and that no plans would be able to save them.  It's not as if everyone knew in advance that the two candidates would finish within about 1 or 2% of each other on Super Tuesday, making it virtually a tie.

Still, even if it was unlikely for the race to go on this long, they should have had contingency plans just in case.  However, I can understand why planning campaigns in 22 Super Tuesday states might have offered too much of a distraction to worry about what comes afer.
Logged

HOG & Blondie: A Tale of Atlas Future

What is your opinion of this thread?

Watch Dave being briefed by the mods.

Being a moderator is basically like one giant party.  Except you're the one ruining the party and everyone hates you.
Warner for Senate '14
benconstine
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 30648
United States


View Profile
« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2008, 02:03:01 pm »
Ignore

She should have skipped Iowa, and competed harder in the caucus states.
Logged

Obama High's debate team:

"Now let me be clear...I...I...um...uh...now let me be clear.  I strongly condemn the affirmative in the strongest possible terms, and I am closely monitoring their arguments.  Let me be clear on this."
Former Moderate
Mr. Moderate
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13246
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2008, 02:44:23 pm »
Ignore

She needed to work harder in all those caucus states.

Exactly.  She punted WAY too many small caucus states because she figured they wouldn't matter.

Had she cared more about the bare-knuckle delegate fight, and less about "momentum," she might have enough extra delegates to have a legit shot at a convention win.  (Unlike now, where she could still win, but it'd be a dirty win that would fracture the Democratic Party for years along racial lines.)
Logged

Mr Moderate at 54/10 is a total joke, he is a horror.

I think it is very possible that Vladimir Putin could be the Antichrist.  That is nothing more than an educated guess on my part.
Beet
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16062


View Profile
« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2008, 10:04:51 pm »
Ignore

- Should have punted Iowa to Edwards.

- How about her oppo research not finding the Jeremiah Wright tape? It took some guy on YouTube to find it? Imagine if this had come out late 2007 or even the last week of January.

- Message, message, message. I know some people here will deny it, but there are things she could have done to be more likable among the online grassroots set, and by extension, some in the media/political elite. Instead of contrasting herself to Obama's message of hope and change, she could have agreed with it, but then come back with her own inspiring message about fighting for children and the sick for decades, about how her Methodist upbringing taught her to see society as a community where we should take care first of our young and sick and old and poor; those who need it the most. She could framed it as a personal struggle too, contrasted her responsible, brainy style with the cowboy adventurism of George Bush, and been more articulate about her problems with Bill and raising Chelsea in order to express how family shaped her beliefs. In short, run a more inspiring campaign and harness her personal life more; not just assuming that people 'knew her already'. That would have allowed her to run as a woman and be more believable (one of the reasons that stories like the Bosnia exaggeration have particular potency, is that it seems like she's trying too hard to be manly) and also give her an inspiring cause to run for President that was more believable.

Of course, the advantages of the message she did employ are clear: it allows her to create a strong contrast with your opponent, and that's often the most important thing you want to do in any debate. So I'm in no way saying Mark Penn's message was completely wrong. But as a Clinton supporter, it would have felt a lot better if she had run the other message, and instinctively, I feel she would have done better.
Logged

Senator Polnut
polnut
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13914
Australia


View Profile
« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2008, 10:16:29 pm »
Ignore

Biggest mistakes
- The big-state strategy - a caucus or two in the west would have made a lot of difference

- Allowing race in any way shape or form dictate the post-NH environment. While I technically agreed with what Clinton said about Johnson and Civil Rights there was NO WAY it was going to be reported any other way than it was. Then Bill and his bloody Jackson comment. It cemented the black vote behind Obama.



Logged


Dogma is a comfortable thing, it saves you from thought - Sir Robert Menzies
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 33839


View Profile
« Reply #16 on: March 31, 2008, 10:18:20 pm »
Ignore

Not hire high-priced idiots to run her campaign.
Logged


At the very least, this turn of events seems to validate my prediction that Americans are ready and willing to fully embrace fascism.
I dreamed about Lief spanking Rand Paul.
Erc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4685
Slovenia


View Profile
« Reply #17 on: April 01, 2008, 01:01:37 am »
Ignore

Biggest mistakes
- The big-state strategy - a caucus or two in the west would have made a lot of difference

It's not a strategy, it's an excuse.

As to what she should have done differently...

I'll agree that she should not have contested Iowa.  That was always the only state in contention throughout 2007.  Yes, it could have given Edwards a chance, but she'd have defeated Edwards (& would easily have won a 3-way race, I think) later on.

Obama was running ads in VA & MD before February 5th.  He knew what he was doing.  Yes, he had more money, but it doesn't excuse her failure there.

Her delegate deficit is almost entirely due to caucus failures.  If she had performed respectably there, that's 100 delegates she could have made up.  If she had tried in February, they'd probably be tied right now.
Logged
motomonkey
Full Member
***
Posts: 191


View Profile
« Reply #18 on: April 01, 2008, 01:49:26 pm »
Ignore

It is easy to look back and see lots of mistakes in any campaign, but these seem to be some of them for Hillary Clinton:

1.  She failed to put together a winning caucus strategy
2.  Her message was wrong. She went negative i.e. "Anti-Bush" where as the "Hope/Change" message of Obama was superior.  She should have recognized that the country wanted change and hope more than just criticism of the past.  This worked against her on several levels such as:
a)  Made her look like she was "looking back" instead of forward
b)  Reinforced negative impressions of her as a critic and unlikeable
3)  She completely blew with her use of Bill. 
4)  Her exaggeration on the "sniper fire" issue is regretable
5)  Allowing the "inevitable nominee" story to grow rather than managing expectations was a mistake.



Logged
JSojourner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11629
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.94

View Profile
« Reply #19 on: April 01, 2008, 02:07:29 pm »
Ignore

what should she have done differently?


Stayed home.   

People simply do not like this woman.   Her unlikeability is so high, in fact, that even a relatively weak candidate like Obama can overtake her.

Two reasons I thought my preferred candidates -- Dodd or Biden -- actually had a chance.  Hillary's utter unlikeability and Obama's lack of experience.

My guess is, Democrats feel like they went with intellect and experience in 2000 and 2004 and it got them nowhere. <sigh>  I still prefer intellect and experience.
Logged

black and white band photos
BRTD
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 72587
United Kingdom


View Profile
« Reply #20 on: April 01, 2008, 02:47:47 pm »
Ignore

1-Actually tried to compete in the caucus states instead of just ignoring all of them and then afterwards arguing that they don't matter anyway (a very insulting talking point that backfired on her totally. Probably one of the reasons for her brutal February losing streak.)
2-No playing of the race card. It didn't help her jack in South Carolina, or in any Super Tuesday state. Might've cost her Missouri and Connecticut actually.
3-Actually set up a post-Super Tuesday plan. If people like me can accurately predict the race going on past Super Tuesday how could her supposed top notch campaign team not do so?
4-Realize that Obama was always going to get more support from not being Hillary than she was from not being Obama. Her post-Super Tuesday strategy didn't seem to realize that either.
Logged




01/05/2004-01/10/2014
King
intermoderate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 25535
United States


View Profile
« Reply #21 on: April 01, 2008, 02:56:39 pm »
Ignore

This question took me a second to process.

"Wait, she won the Ohio primary?"

"OH, Obama!"
Logged

Beet
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16062


View Profile
« Reply #22 on: April 01, 2008, 03:05:30 pm »
Ignore

1-Actually tried to compete in the caucus states instead of just ignoring all of them and then afterwards arguing that they don't matter anyway (a very insulting talking point that backfired on her totally. Probably one of the reasons for her brutal February losing streak.)

I don't think it was meant to be insulting. I think the argument was that caucuses aren't necessarily accurate predictors of electability in the general election, also that caucuses aren't necessarily accurate predictors of the popular will either. Penn statement about "significant states" might have been insulting, but it was also part of a strategy. He wouldn't have said that if the situations were reversed.

Quote
Actually set up a post-Super Tuesday plan. If people like me can accurately predict the race going on past Super Tuesday how could her supposed top notch campaign team not do so?

1) I doubt they were looking forward to a long and divisive primary. Who can blame them? It's not good for the party. It would have been better for everything to have been resolved on Super Tuesday-- one way or the other.

2) The post-super Tuesday states were not favorable. She might have had a chance in Maine, but even with stronger organizing, Nebraska and Washington were likely out of reach. Still, it's true that she could have cut down the margins.
Logged

Aizen
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4540


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -9.22

View Profile
« Reply #23 on: April 01, 2008, 03:31:51 pm »
Ignore

1-Actually tried to compete in the caucus states instead of just ignoring all of them and then afterwards arguing that they don't matter anyway (a very insulting talking point that backfired on her totally. Probably one of the reasons for her brutal February losing streak.)

I don't think it was meant to be insulting. I think the argument was that caucuses aren't necessarily accurate predictors of electability in the general election, also that caucuses aren't necessarily accurate predictors of the popular will either. Penn statement about "significant states" might have been insulting, but it was also part of a strategy. He wouldn't have said that if the situations were reversed.

Hillary Clinton was in a campaign to get the most delegates. Whether or not the caucuses are an accurate indicator of the popular will is irrelevent. That talking point was just an excuse made after the fact. It was stupid to completely ignore them.
Logged
Beet
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 16062


View Profile
« Reply #24 on: April 01, 2008, 03:41:58 pm »
Ignore

1-Actually tried to compete in the caucus states instead of just ignoring all of them and then afterwards arguing that they don't matter anyway (a very insulting talking point that backfired on her totally. Probably one of the reasons for her brutal February losing streak.)

I don't think it was meant to be insulting. I think the argument was that caucuses aren't necessarily accurate predictors of electability in the general election, also that caucuses aren't necessarily accurate predictors of the popular will either. Penn statement about "significant states" might have been insulting, but it was also part of a strategy. He wouldn't have said that if the situations were reversed.

Hillary Clinton was in a campaign to get the most delegates. Whether or not the caucuses are an accurate indicator of the popular will is irrelevent. That talking point was just an excuse made after the fact. It was stupid to completely ignore them.

Sure, I was just responding to the "argument afterward" about caucuses. They should have organized the caucuses more effectively preemptively to be sure. How does one organize a caucus anyway? They made quite an effort in Iowa but all the money must have done down the hole there because they apparently didn't have enough to do what Obama did in the others. It's hard to tell without a detailed spending analysis-- but I suspect that Obama ran with the kind of message that was slightly more appealing to those activist types anyways.
Logged

Pages: [1] 2 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines