NJ-Sen: Rep. Rob Andrews (D) gauging support for Lautenberg challenge

[Sam Spade]

This might become an interesting test of how machine-ridden North Jersey really is.

North Jersey - machine-ridden?  Surely, you jest... 

I wish Andrews a lot of luck b/c he's going to need it.

[Meeker]

I don't think this is really going to be an issues-based campaign, more of a Lautenberg vs. not-Lautenberg. Lautenberg may try to bring up the war and other policy issues, but I can't really see the left getting very excited about anti-war hero Lautenberg. Come to think of it I can't really think of anyone getting very excited about Lautenberg.

The North/South dynamic will also be interesting.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Oh, and he has only 2 months to run a campaign?

Poor planning there Rob.

He doesn't need more time than that.  There's no benefit to a knock-out, drag-out slugfest war waged in the pages of the Star Ledger.  Earned media in New Jersey is all but impossible to come by, so this entire campaign will be waged through television ads.

It'll also be waged line-by-line.  Andrews has a huge edge in South Jersey and won't even need to fight down there; the news of the Adubato and Smith endorsements point to surprising support in North Jersey.  Democratic voters are intensely loyal to the machine endorsement, especially in the cities, so this campaign is more about behind-the-scenes machination than anything else.  And if you think Andrews hasn't been preparing for this for years, then you're sorely mistaken.

Lautenberg, meanwhile, has never been a favorite of the NJ Democratic establishment.  Remember when Bob Torricelli dropped out of the race in 2002, and how Frank Lautenberg was the NJ Dems fifth or sixth pick for the job?

Andrews already has a hefty warchest to blow (out of the starting gate with over a million), and will be filling the coming days with solicitations, not whistlestop campaign appearances.  He'll be just fine.

I don't think this is really going to be an issues-based campaign, more of a Lautenberg vs. not-Lautenberg. Lautenberg may try to bring up the war and other policy issues, but I can't really see the left getting very excited about anti-war hero Lautenberg. Come to think of it I can't really think of anyone getting very excited about Lautenberg.

Pretty spot on.  Lautenberg's support may be a mile wide, but it's so shallow that one warm day in the sun will dry it all up.

[minionofmidas]

If the machine is as powerful as many of us think, and Andrews gets more of their endorsements, he's a slight favorite.
If one (or both) of the above is untrue / not happening, he neither has nor (if it's only the first that's untrue) deserves a whelk's chance in hell. I'm prepared to be surprised.

[minionofmidas]

Oh wait. One big question.
Primaries. Open? Closed? Semi-open? Totally open? Given the Republican dudfest, this may be important.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Oh wait. One big question.
Primaries. Open? Closed? Semi-open? Totally open? Given the Republican dudfest, this may be important.

In New Jersey, primaries are essentially closed.  Once an independent votes in a primary, they're locked into that party lest they file an official form changing back.

[Adlai Stevenson]

Let us not forget that Andrews lost Gubernatorial primaries in 1997 and 2001, if he loses for the Senate in 2008 his career must surely be over?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Let us not forget that Andrews lost Gubernatorial primaries in 1997 and 2001, if he loses for the Senate in 2008 his career must surely be over?

Andrews did not lose a Gubernatorial primary in 2001.

Though still, if he loses here, he is probably finished.  Strategically, though, I think it's worth it for him to take a stand here.  Lautenberg is going to be a easier foe to knock off than, say, Rep. Rothman or Holt in an open-seat battle.  Especially if Andrews can wrest away some key North Jersey lines, like it looks like he may be able to do in Essex (Adubato, DiVincenzo, Durkin), Middlesex (Smith), or Union (Lesniak?).

[Keystone Phil]

Let us not forget that Andrews lost Gubernatorial primaries in 1997 and 2001, if he loses for the Senate in 2008 his career must surely be over?

Andrews did not lose a Gubernatorial primary in 2001.

Though still, if he loses here, he is probably finished.  Strategically, though, I think it's worth it for him to take a stand here.  Lautenberg is going to be a easier foe to knock off than, say, Rep. Rothman or Holt in an open-seat battle.  Especially if Andrews can wrest away some key North Jersey lines, like it looks like he may be able to do in Essex (Adubato, DiVincenzo, Durkin), Middlesex (Smith), or Union (Lesniak?).

I think it would have been easier to wait a few months and challenge Corzine (if he even runs again) but I obviously prefer this move.

[Conan]

Let us not forget that Andrews lost Gubernatorial primaries in 1997 and 2001, if he loses for the Senate in 2008 his career must surely be over?

Andrews did not lose a Gubernatorial primary in 2001.

Though still, if he loses here, he is probably finished.  Strategically, though, I think it's worth it for him to take a stand here.  Lautenberg is going to be a easier foe to knock off than, say, Rep. Rothman or Holt in an open-seat battle.  Especially if Andrews can wrest away some key North Jersey lines, like it looks like he may be able to do in Essex (Adubato, DiVincenzo, Durkin), Middlesex (Smith), or Union (Lesniak?).

I think it would have been easier to wait a few months and challenge Corzine (if he even runs again) but I obviously prefer this move.

That would be a good move could he raise tens of millions of dollars.

[minionofmidas]

Who's running for Andrews' House Seat? Filing deadline's April 7th, apparently.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Who's running for Andrews' House Seat? Filing deadline's April 7th, apparently.

George Norcross hasn't made that decision yet, though the inside rumor is that whomever it will be will agree to drop out of the race post-primary if Andrews loses his statewide bid.

Norcross has put out a list of the sixteen people he's considering for the seat.

Courtesy of PoliticsNJ:

On the official Norcross short list: Senate Majority Leader Steve Sweeney; South Jersey AFL-CIO President Donald Norcross, Assembly Democratic Executive Director Bill Castner; Democratic strategist Steve Ayscue; the Camden County Democratic Co-Chairman; State Sens. Fred Madden and Dana Redd, the Democratic State Vice Chairwoman; Assemblymen Louis Greenwald, John Burzichelli and Paul Moriarty; Assemblywoman Sandra Love; Camden County Clerk Jim Beach, the Camden County Democratic Co-Chairman; Casino Control Commissioner Linda Kassekert; former State Sen. Raymond Zane, who had switched to the GOP in 2001 after 28 years as a Democratic Senator and has now switched back; Troy Singleton, an aide to Carpenters Union leader Frank Spencer; Burlington County Democratic Chairman Rick Perr, who would move into the district to run; and Camille Andrews, Rob Andrews' wife.

Personally, I think it'll likely be Assemblyman Greenwald.   I doubt Camden will give this seat up easily.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Some more big name Andrews endorsements in North Jersey, this time, in Middlesex County:

State Sen. Joe Vitale
Assemblyman John Wisniewski
Woodbridge Mayor John McCormac
Carteret Mayor Dan Reiman

In Union, Andrews scored the endorsements of Sen. Ray Lesniak (huge) and Sen. Nick Scutari.

Ray Lesniak's support of Jim McGreevey in 1997 is essentially what sunk Andrews' candidacy.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I think it's also worth noting that while Joe Ferriero (in a weird display of deference to Rep. Rothman) is keeping the valuable Bergen County line with Lautenberg, it seems his support of Lautenberg is tepid at best.

Evidence: Sen. Paul Sarlo, the consummate Ferriero puppet, is backing Andrews.

The real support Lautenberg has in Bergen is from the liberal activist base and, ironically, those who do not support Joe Ferriero in the slightest, like my favorite lush Val Huttle.

[Conan]

Some more big name Andrews endorsements in North Central Jersey, this time, in Middlesex County:

State Sen. Joe Vitale
Assemblyman John Wisniewski
Woodbridge Mayor John McCormac
Carteret Mayor Dan Reiman

In Union, Andrews scored the endorsements of Sen. Ray Lesniak (huge) and Sen. Nick Scutari.

Ray Lesniak's support of Jim McGreevey in 1997 is essentially what sunk Andrews' candidacy.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Some more big name Andrews endorsements in North Central Jersey...

To Rob Andrews, that is NORTH Jersey.

[Conan]

Some more big name Andrews endorsements in North Central Jersey...

To Rob Andrews, that is NORTH Jersey.

It's still central jersey.

[minionofmidas]

Some more big name Andrews endorsements in North Central Jersey...

To Rob Andrews, that is NORTH Jersey.

It's still central jersey.

There is no such thing as Central Jersey.

[Brittain33]

There is no such thing as Central Jersey.

It's a good term for New York suburbs that aren't particularly close to New York or anything else, but don't have as far to drive to get to the shore.

[Conan]

Some more big name Andrews endorsements in North Central Jersey...

To Rob Andrews, that is NORTH Jersey.

It's still central jersey.

There is no such thing as Central Jersey.

If you live in NJ there is.

[minionofmidas]

There is no such thing as Central Jersey.

It's a good term for New York suburbs that aren't particularly close to New York or anything else, but don't have as far to drive to get to the shore.

Outer North Jersey would be more accurate in that case. Unless maybe if you're talking of Ocean or Mercer.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Two more endorsements for Andrews, this time from Hudson (which is definitely North Jersey, thank you very much): State Sen. Sandra Cunningham (widow of popular former Jersey City mayor Cunningham) and Assemblyman Chiappone.

Sen. Stack is supposedly still undecided.  County chair and Jersey City mayor Jeremiah Healey is backing Lautenberg.

[Verily]

There is no such thing as Central Jersey.

It's a good term for New York suburbs that aren't particularly close to New York or anything else, but don't have as far to drive to get to the shore.

Outer North Jersey would be more accurate in that case. Unless maybe if you're talking of Ocean or Mercer.

I would consider Central Jersey to be Mercer, Middlesex, Hunterdon and Somerset, and maybe Monmouth. Although northern Middlesex probably falls into North Jersey, once you get past New Brunswick.