PA-InsiderAdvantage: Guess what ? Clinton is indeed collapsing

[Tender Branson]

April 3, 2008 — The latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey shows Sen. Hillary Clinton clinging to a 2-point lead in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary. The telephone survey of likely registered Democratic voters, conducted April 2, has been weighted for age, race and gender. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7%. The results are:

Clinton: 45%
Obama: 43%
Undecided: 12%

InsiderAdvantage/Creators Syndicate’s Matt Towery: “This could be the beginning of the end of the Clinton campaign. The crosstabs show Obama trailing among white voters, but by only a 49%-40% margin. More importantly, Obama has a lead among African-American voters of 56%-29%, with the remainder undecided.

“It is almost impossible to imagine that the African-American vote will not consolidate to the levels we have seen in other states, which would put Obama closer to 70%-plus with blacks. Clinton would need a large, disproportionate turnout of white voters to have a real shot at pulling off a substantial win in the contest.

“Some of our previous polls in other states have shown a pattern of Clinton coming from polling deficits to eek out slim victories over Obama. We’ve seen this happen several times, with Clinton surging in the final week leading up to the vote.

“She will have to pull off a near-miracle to win Pennsylvania, to say nothing of her winning by a substantial margin, which she almost certainly needs to stay alive in the Democratic presidential sweepstakes,” said Towery.

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_43_318.aspx

[Tender Branson]

YAY ! If it were only true ...

[Eraserhead]

Eh... Obama is only winning the black vote 55%-30%? Is the sample just too small or what?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Clinton I think is losing her grip on PA - enough for her to lose it?

Probably not - but enough that any victory may not be big enough to justify carrying on.

Anything below a 10% margin would be bad.

[Aizen]

This is the end for you Hillary.

[ChrisFromNJ]

There is still almost 3 weeks left. I would expect Hillary to throw another kitchen sink at Obama to try and stop his momentum.

[The Mikado]

There is still almost 3 weeks left. I would expect Hillary to throw another kitchen sink at Obama to try and stop his momentum.

She's already thrown the kitchen sink.  There's just a big gaping hole there.

[Sam Spade]

You know, this whole thing is getting so predictable nowadays, I don't even really need to post anymore...

[Aizen]

There is still almost 3 weeks left. I would expect Hillary to throw another kitchen sink at Obama to try and stop his momentum.

She's already thrown the kitchen sink.  There's just a big gaping hole there.

There has got to be other things in the kitchen she could throw at him. Like the toaster oven or something. This is her turf we're talking about here.

[Wiz in Wis]

Inconcievable! Hillary, you were supposed to be this colossus. You were this great, legendary thing, and yet he gains!!

[kevinatcausa]

As much as I like this result to be true, I have my doubts.

If the poll has a crosstab that seems out of left field (Obama only running 56% among African Americans),  why should the rest of the poll be any more accurate?

[agcatter]

What do you expect.  She's getting outspent 5-1.  He has unlimited money to throw in over the next two weeks.  I saw his endless ads here in Texas - It was 5 and 6 per night.  I was amazed she was still able to win by the 5 points she won by.  My wife and I just laughed every time an Obama ad appeared on the screen.  Constant bombardment no matter what you were watching on whatever station you were watching.

She raised over 20 million last month.  If the woman isn't smart to realize Pennsylvania is do or die and chooses not to sink every dime of it into her campaign there, she deserves to be beaten.  This is the smartest woman in the world.  LOL

Seriously, the "professionals" running Hillary's campaign should be sued for malpractice.

[Joe Republic]

I keep hearing bad things about Insider Advantage, but their track record so far this cycle has actually been pretty good.  Of course, that doesn't make this poll on its own any more valid, especially since this is their first PA poll...

[Stranger in a strange land]

I have my doubts, but if true this is good news. Anything below 10% would be seen as a defeat, and would probably put the popular vote out of reach.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Obama winning 56-29% among blacks? 

As much as I want to believe this poll, this sub-sample is enough to show that this firm has undoubtedly some questionable polling practices. 

As for the trend though, it is there and I can only hope 3 weeks is enough for Obama to catch and pass her.  Obama will win the nomination either way I believe, but Hillary is so stubborn if she wins by one vote in PA she'll find enough reason to stay in and extend this thing even longer. 

Democrats, we need this to end.  This should be a horrible election cycle for the GOP and Clinton may be handing it to McCain b/c she's mad she didn't get her "entitled" nomination. 

[Lief 🗽]

Clinton will still win by about 10 points, just like she did in California and Ohio.

[Padfoot]

Clinton will still win by about 10 points, just like she did in California and Ohio.

I think its still too far out to make any definite predictions.

[© tweed]

Obama is headed in the right direction and has 2.5 weeks to go.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

It's 45% to 42%.  Here's the link to the database entry: http://www.uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2008D/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220080402034

[Gustaf]

I keep hearing bad things about Insider Advantage, but their track record so far this cycle has actually been pretty good.  Of course, that doesn't make this poll on its own any more valid, especially since this is their first PA poll...

Obama ahead by 6% in MS? By 2% in Alabama? They did well in Texas and Virginia, but that's really about it.

[Sam Spade]

People on this forum tend to want to believe the polls they want to hear.  Life is kind of like that too.

In many ways, that's the biggest difference between now and 2004 on this forum (though there was always some of that in 2004, but nowhere near the magnitude as now).

Like I said before, the Democratic primary is kind of like a record that keeps playing over and over again.  We've heard this song before.

[Joe Republic]

I keep hearing bad things about Insider Advantage, but their track record so far this cycle has actually been pretty good.  Of course, that doesn't make this poll on its own any more valid, especially since this is their first PA poll...

Obama ahead by 6% in MS? By 2% in Alabama? They did well in Texas and Virginia, but that's really about it.

Every polling agency got the margins dramatically wrong in Alabama and Mississippi, and a number of other states too.  That's no excuse for Insider Advantage, of course, where I'll concede that my declaration that they have been "pretty good" was a tad premature.  They have been mixed, but did score a couple of them.

[The Vorlon]

As always... the standard caveat... One poll is, well, one poll....

It is always best to look at the trend line, if possible by the same polling firm...

Rasmussen has shown Clinton's lead go from 18, to 13, to 10, to 5 points since after the Texas/Ohio  Primary

Survey USA has shown Clinton's lead decline from 19% to 12%

Strategic Vision has he lead decline from 18% to 9%

Quinipiac has her lead shrinking from 12% to 9%

I don't think there is much doubt Obama is making up ground, but I also think it is pretty clear Clinton is still ahead, my guess would be by mid/upper single digits.

So it boils down to an expectations game.

Both sides want to do "better than expected"

Obama is walking a fine line in PA, he actually is throwing huge resources at the state, so he actually is trying for a knockout punch, while trying to look like he is not trying for a knockout punch....

My guess is as follows...

If Clinton wins by 10%+ she has a plausible argument to continue....
If Obama wins or it is very close (say within 5% or so) Clinton is effectively dead.

If Clinton wins by something in the 5-10% range there is a real quandary and different people will read it different ways...

I suspect we are currently in that 5-10% grey zone, it will be interesting which way it goes.  Obama always seems to peak a few days too soon so I wonder if his team will ease off the throttle a bit, and then pour it on at the end and try to peak at the right time?

[Sam Spade]

I suspect the lead is closer to high single digits, if not 10% itself (maybe even slightly above), because of certain other Hillary advantages, but otherwise spot on analysis as usual.

I have another suspicion why Obama tends to peak early in these states (flirtation theory), but your reason is as good as any.

[J. J.]

It's not much the percentage but the delegate count.

Hillary wins by +10 and nets 18 delegates, I cannot see how she recovers.

She wins by +8 and nets 27 delegates, she's won PA handily.