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Author Topic: NC PrimD: Survey USA: Obama 49, Clinton 39  (Read 1316 times)
Sam Spade
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« on: April 08, 2008, 07:36:53 pm »
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New Poll: North Carolina President by Survey USA on 2008-04-07

Summary:
Obama:
49%
Clinton:
39%
Other:
7%
Undecided:
5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Padfoot
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« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2008, 08:14:35 pm »
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curious, SUSA seems to be under polling Obama here.  Perhaps they're also underpolling him in their most recent PA poll as well.
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Verily
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« Reply #2 on: April 08, 2008, 08:15:46 pm »
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I think 32% black is a significant underestimate; I'd guess around 38-40%. But we'll see.
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #3 on: April 08, 2008, 08:17:47 pm »
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curious, SUSA seems to be under polling Obama here.  Perhaps they're also underpolling him in their most recent PA poll as well.

How do you know that it isn't the other pollsters overpolling him? You shouldn't assume that x must be more accurate than y just because you like what x tells you.
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Padfoot
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« Reply #4 on: April 08, 2008, 08:27:39 pm »
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curious, SUSA seems to be under polling Obama here.  Perhaps they're also underpolling him in their most recent PA poll as well.

How do you know that it isn't the other pollsters overpolling him? You shouldn't assume that x must be more accurate than y just because you like what x tells you.

I don't, which is why I said seems to be.  Nothing is ever certain.  But when a multitude of other reputable pollsters show a completely different race I don't think its that big of a leap to assume the one outlier is wrong.
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ℒief
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« Reply #5 on: April 08, 2008, 08:28:47 pm »
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I hope SUSA isn't right again...
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Sibboleth
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« Reply #6 on: April 08, 2008, 08:29:56 pm »
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curious, SUSA seems to be under polling Obama here.  Perhaps they're also underpolling him in their most recent PA poll as well.

How do you know that it isn't the other pollsters overpolling him? You shouldn't assume that x must be more accurate than y just because you like what x tells you.

I don't, which is why I said seems to be.  Nothing is ever certain.  But when a multitude of other reputable pollsters show a completely different race I don't think its that big of a leap to assume the one outlier is wrong.

In otherwords you think that because It Stands To Reason?
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"I have become entangled in my own data, and my conclusion stands in direct contradiction to the initial idea from which I started. Proceeding from unlimited freedom, I end with unlimited despotism. I will add, however, that there can be no solution of the social formula except mine."
Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #7 on: April 08, 2008, 09:11:41 pm »
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One thing I don't like,  93% of the people polled were Democrats and 7% were Indys. Indys will make up 30 to 40 percent on election day.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #8 on: April 08, 2008, 09:38:57 pm »
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One thing I don't like,  93% of the people polled were Democrats and 7% were Indys. Indys will make up 30 to 40 percent on election day.

Most certainly, josh...
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #9 on: April 08, 2008, 09:46:20 pm »
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One thing I don't like,  93% of the people polled were Democrats and 7% were Indys. Indys will make up 30 to 40 percent on election day.

In your dreams, maybe...
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #10 on: April 09, 2008, 06:25:36 am »
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One thing I don't like,  93% of the people polled were Democrats and 7% were Indys. Indys will make up 30 to 40 percent on election day.

In your dreams, maybe...

Right now Indys make up 21 percent of the RV in NC. 
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #11 on: April 09, 2008, 07:57:08 am »
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Obama needs to aim to win NC by twice the margin Clinton wins PA, at least, to keep his lead in the overall popular vote on track given that whatever happens in PA, IN and NC, WV and KY will be Clinton blow-outs

In terms of popular vote, this is going down to the wire unless either Obama or Clinton implode

Dave
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Moderate Liberal Populist Smiley [Personal 45%/Economic 42%] / Defense 'Hawk'

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