NC: Rasmussen: McCain Leads NC by 11% over Clinton; Tied with Obama

[bullmoose88]

You think all those Yankees coming on down to NC are liberals eh?  Who knew? 

Not really. Most of the transplanted yankees I meet here are conservatives who are disgusted by the over taxation in the yankee states.

Probably more true than what Josh has said...they're probably more socially permissive than their new southern neighbors, but probably more economically/fiscally conservative

[Torie]

You think all those Yankees coming on down to NC are liberals eh?  Who knew? 

Not really. Most of the transplanted yankees I meet here are conservatives who are disgusted by the over taxation in the yankee states.

Probably more true than what Josh has said...they're probably more socially permissive than their new southern neighbors, but probably more economically/fiscally conservative

That is probably right. Jesse Helms might be in trouble when he runs for re-election.

[War on Want]

You think all those Yankees coming on down to NC are liberals eh?  Who knew? 

Not really. Most of the transplanted yankees I meet here are conservatives who are disgusted by the over taxation in the yankee states.

Probably more true than what Josh has said...they're probably more socially permissive than their new southern neighbors, but probably more economically/fiscally conservative

I say on par with them on Economics. I would classify the Northeasterners into three major groups of people:

"Conservative" Republicans- These individuals come to the South to escape high tax rates, and maybe a "morally" degrading North, with less values, but mainly to escape taxes. They are fairly upper-class in general.
Political Matrix:
+5.53 Economics
+1.91 Socially

I would say this group breaks 85-15 for McCain, but some actually vote for Obama

Rockefeller Republicans/Moderate Democrats- These individuals come South possibly for less taxes, but also because it is expanding rapidly. They are about as upper class as the Conservatives but are much, more Liberal on social issues.
Political Matrix:
+0.51 Economics
-3.68 Sociallly

This group breaks down 80-20 for Obama, with only the few remaining ones who stay Republicans, voting for McCain

Liberals- This group is much more Middle Class than the other two groups and came south soely because of the good house prices and growth rates. They are not too far to the left on Economics, but certainly are on Social Issues.
Political Matrix:
-3.65 Economics
-5.39 Socially

[bullmoose88]

You think all those Yankees coming on down to NC are liberals eh?  Who knew? 

Not really. Most of the transplanted yankees I meet here are conservatives who are disgusted by the over taxation in the yankee states.

Probably more true than what Josh has said...they're probably more socially permissive than their new southern neighbors, but probably more economically/fiscally conservative

I say on par with them on Economics. I would classify the Northeasterners into three major groups of people:

"Conservative" Republicans- These individuals come to the South to escape high tax rates, and maybe a "morally" degrading North, with less values, but mainly to escape taxes. They are fairly upper-class in general.
Political Matrix:
+5.53 Economics
+1.91 Socially

I would say this group breaks 85-15 for McCain, but some actually vote for Obama

Rockefeller Republicans/Moderate Democrats- These individuals come South possibly for less taxes, but also because it is expanding rapidly. They are about as upper class as the Conservatives but are much, more Liberal on social issues.
Political Matrix:
+0.51 Economics
-3.68 Sociallly

This group breaks down 80-20 for Obama, with only the few remaining ones who stay Republicans, voting for McCain

Liberals- This group is much more Middle Class than the other two groups and came south soely because of the good house prices and growth rates. They are not too far to the left on Economics, but certainly are on Social Issues.
Political Matrix:
-3.65 Economics
-5.39 Socially

Its unlikely that you'll see many of those negative social and economic score types move south...the north is turning into their sort of place.  Its more likely those middle class people are more conservative on social issues than either of the two other groups you've mentioned...and have possibly moved away from the north's bohemianism.

[Josh/Devilman88]

You think all those Yankees coming on down to NC are liberals eh?  Who knew? 

Not really. Most of the transplanted yankees I meet here are conservatives who are disgusted by the over taxation in the yankee states.

Probably more true than what Josh has said...they're probably more socially permissive than their new southern neighbors, but probably more economically/fiscally conservative

I say on par with them on Economics. I would classify the Northeasterners into three major groups of people:

"Conservative" Republicans- These individuals come to the South to escape high tax rates, and maybe a "morally" degrading North, with less values, but mainly to escape taxes. They are fairly upper-class in general.
Political Matrix:
+5.53 Economics
+1.91 Socially

I would say this group breaks 85-15 for McCain, but some actually vote for Obama

Rockefeller Republicans/Moderate Democrats- These individuals come South possibly for less taxes, but also because it is expanding rapidly. They are about as upper class as the Conservatives but are much, more Liberal on social issues.
Political Matrix:
+0.51 Economics
-3.68 Sociallly

This group breaks down 80-20 for Obama, with only the few remaining ones who stay Republicans, voting for McCain

Liberals- This group is much more Middle Class than the other two groups and came south soely because of the good house prices and growth rates. They are not too far to the left on Economics, but certainly are on Social Issues.
Political Matrix:
-3.65 Economics
-5.39 Socially

Its unlikely that you'll see many of those negative social and economic score types move south...the north is turning into their sort of place.  Its more likely those middle class people are more conservative on social issues than either of the two other groups you've mentioned...and have possibly moved away from the north's bohemianism.

Also I would say 30% of the people I met from up north that moved down were young black students.

[War on Want]

You think all those Yankees coming on down to NC are liberals eh?  Who knew? 

Not really. Most of the transplanted yankees I meet here are conservatives who are disgusted by the over taxation in the yankee states.

Probably more true than what Josh has said...they're probably more socially permissive than their new southern neighbors, but probably more economically/fiscally conservative

I say on par with them on Economics. I would classify the Northeasterners into three major groups of people:

"Conservative" Republicans- These individuals come to the South to escape high tax rates, and maybe a "morally" degrading North, with less values, but mainly to escape taxes. They are fairly upper-class in general.
Political Matrix:
+5.53 Economics
+1.91 Socially

I would say this group breaks 85-15 for McCain, but some actually vote for Obama

Rockefeller Republicans/Moderate Democrats- These individuals come South possibly for less taxes, but also because it is expanding rapidly. They are about as upper class as the Conservatives but are much, more Liberal on social issues.
Political Matrix:
+0.51 Economics
-3.68 Sociallly

This group breaks down 80-20 for Obama, with only the few remaining ones who stay Republicans, voting for McCain

Liberals- This group is much more Middle Class than the other two groups and came south soely because of the good house prices and growth rates. They are not too far to the left on Economics, but certainly are on Social Issues.
Political Matrix:
-3.65 Economics
-5.39 Socially

Its unlikely that you'll see many of those negative social and economic score types move south...the north is turning into their sort of place.  Its more likely those middle class people are more conservative on social issues than either of the two other groups you've mentioned...and have possibly moved away from the north's bohemianism.

I said among Northernors, among people who move there.

[Sbane]

Yeah the older people who move down south will tend to be more fiscally conservative but they are still socially moderate. Obama will not get blown out with this demographic like democrats usually do. Also even I know people from California who have permanently moved to NC because they went to college there and now work and live there. THey are mostly young and this group will vote 80-20 Obama. Unlike SC where most northerners are old, NC has a much more diverse group of northerners moving down.

[Torie]

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You don't really believe this do you?

[HardRCafé]

Actually a good chunk of them are probably Rockefeller Republicans, turned Democrats the second they get into North Carolina, but yeah almost all of the new residents of NC are Democrats.

About the only Rockefeller Republicans any more are kids on message boards.

[War on Want]

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You don't really believe this do you?

Yes I do, Rockefeller Republicans love Obama for the most part. Sure some of the more staunch Republicans, or the more conservative ones will vote for the "moderate" McCain, but Obama is the perfect candidate to win this group over.

[bullmoose88]

Actually a good chunk of them are probably Rockefeller Republicans, turned Democrats the second they get into North Carolina, but yeah almost all of the new residents of NC are Democrats.

About the only Rockefeller Republicans any more are kids on message boards.

Ouch. Zing at my expense.

[War on Want]

Actually a good chunk of them are probably Rockefeller Republicans, turned Democrats the second they get into North Carolina, but yeah almost all of the new residents of NC are Democrats.

About the only Rockefeller Republicans any more are kids on message boards.

By Rockefeller Republicans, I really mean moderate Republicans at the same time.

[Sam Spade]

Some of this might be because the Dems are campaigning heavily in NC at the moment and running ads. I wonder what the black percentage of the vote base is posited by Ras.

This is of course, most of the answer, if not all.  Clinton isn't running that many ads in NC yet, from what I hear, either (money reasons, no doubt)

[Torie]

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You don't really believe this do you?

Yes I do, Rockefeller Republicans love Obama for the most part. Sure some of the more staunch Republicans, or the more conservative ones will vote for the "moderate" McCain, but Obama is the perfect candidate to win this group over.

Splendid, but the percentage is ludicrous, unless you are talking about a de minimus cohort. McCain appeals to the center, and the secular center as well,  ever bit as much if not more than Obama. If you said 60-40,  I might say in the ball park, but 80-20 is close to a Dem base percentage.   Folks near the middle of the economic baseline, and not that far off on social issues, just are not going to break that heavily in either direction.

[War on Want]

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You don't really believe this do you?

Yes I do, Rockefeller Republicans love Obama for the most part. Sure some of the more staunch Republicans, or the more conservative ones will vote for the "moderate" McCain, but Obama is the perfect candidate to win this group over.

Splendid, but the percentage is ludicrous, unless you are talking about a de minimus cohort. McCain appeals to the center, and the secular center as well,  ever bit as much if not more than Obama. If you said 60-40,  I might say in the ball park, but 80-20 is close to a Dem base percentage.   Folks near the middle of the economic baseline, and not that far off on social issues, just are not going to break that heavily in either direction.

I will say 70-30 then, and maybe I exagerated, but still Obama dominates this group of people. For some reason people that are down the middle on Economics, and are leftist on Social Issues love Obama almost totally.

[Adlai Stevenson]

My predictions:

NORTH CAROLINA PRESIDENT -
54% (R) McCain
45% (D) Obama


Obama's ceiling must be between 47%-48% of the vote, however, it is hard to see McCain getting the 56% North Carolina gave Bush in 2004 - I would say McCain would be very lucky to get over 55% of the vote statewide.


NORTH CAROLINA SENATE -
54% (R) Dole
45% (D) Hagan


The Senate race mirrors the Presidential race almost exactly as North Carolina will likely re-elect Elizabeth Dole by near the same margin she first won in 2002.  Kay Hagan will be pulled up by Obama's coattails, however. 

[Torie]

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I don't mean to sound contentious, but do you have any empirical evidence (like a poll or something), to support this little hypothesis of yours?  Just asking. If so, I would love to peruse the data source.

[exopolitician]

Now that we kinda got a feel for NC...im curious to see a new poll out of SC since their last one made the state a tossup since McCain only lead by 3 points [48-45].

[HardRCafé]

South Carolina is obviously Obama country.  Record turnout in Orangeburg, while everybody in Hilton Head spends Election Day playing golf.

[Josh/Devilman88]

My predictions:

NORTH CAROLINA PRESIDENT -
54% (R) McCain
45% (D) Obama


Obama's ceiling must be between 47%-48% of the vote, however, it is hard to see McCain getting the 56% North Carolina gave Bush in 2004 - I would say McCain would be very lucky to get over 55% of the vote statewide.


NORTH CAROLINA SENATE -
54% (R) Dole
45% (D) Hagan


The Senate race mirrors the Presidential race almost exactly as North Carolina will likely re-elect Elizabeth Dole by near the same margin she first won in 2002.  Kay Hagan will be pulled up by Obama's coattails, however. 

One thing I do agree on the, the Senate race will almost mirror the Presidential race, but I think Dole will lose re-election. You ask why, when she won the first time the presdiental race didn't draw alot of people out and she only won by a small amount. Now that the presidential race is drawing more people out for the democratics she will lose due to most of them people voting straight ticket for the democrats.

[HardRCafé]

One thing I do agree on the, the Senate race will almost mirror the Presidential race, but I think Dole will lose re-election. You ask why, when she won the first time the presdiental race didn't draw alot of people out and she only won by a small amount.

Three guesses why Presidential coattails did not help Liddy in 2002.

[War on Want]

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I don't mean to sound contentious, but do you have any empirical evidence (like a poll or something), to support this little hypothesis of yours?  Just asking. If so, I would love to peruse the data source.

I really don't but I can tell you that there is proof in the election results. Look up areas that are down the middle on Economics and leftist on Social Issues(Northern Virginia, parts of New England, Salt Lake City, parts of Colorado, some of Texas) and you will see what I mean. Most of areas also went to McCain but suffered low turnout showing that Obama was energizing these types of people.

[Torie]

South Carolina is obviously Obama country.  Record turnout in Orangeburg, while everybody in Hilton Head spends Election Day playing golf.

Ya, it appears like actually holding the presidential election this cycle is a waste of money.  It's a done deal, and why kill perfectly good trees to generate a bunch of meaningless paper.

[Adlai Stevenson]

My predictions:

NORTH CAROLINA PRESIDENT -
54% (R) McCain
45% (D) Obama


Obama's ceiling must be between 47%-48% of the vote, however, it is hard to see McCain getting the 56% North Carolina gave Bush in 2004 - I would say McCain would be very lucky to get over 55% of the vote statewide.


NORTH CAROLINA SENATE -
54% (R) Dole
45% (D) Hagan


The Senate race mirrors the Presidential race almost exactly as North Carolina will likely re-elect Elizabeth Dole by near the same margin she first won in 2002.  Kay Hagan will be pulled up by Obama's coattails, however. 

One thing I do agree on the, the Senate race will almost mirror the Presidential race, but I think Dole will lose re-election. You ask why, when she won the first time the presdiental race didn't draw alot of people out and she only won by a small amount. Now that the presidential race is drawing more people out for the democratics she will lose due to most of them people voting straight ticket for the democrats.

Do you think Obama will win then?  I think he's lucky he can keep McCain to a 52%-47% win in North Carolina.

[Torie]

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I don't mean to sound contentious, but do you have any empirical evidence (like a poll or something), to support this little hypothesis of yours?  Just asking. If so, I would love to peruse the data source.

I really don't but I can tell you that there is proof in the election results. Look up areas that are down the middle on Economics and leftist on Social Issues(Northern Virginia, parts of New England, Salt Lake City, parts of Colorado, some of Texas) and you will see what I mean. Most of areas also went to McCain but suffered low turnout showing that Obama was energizing these types of people.

More helpful might be the results of an actual presidential partisan contest (you know, with a Pubbie and a Dem on the ballot, competing with each other) in a place or two or three that is packed with these down the middle whites on economics, who tend a bit to the Left on social issues. And then we can examine what kind of partisan swing we are talking about to the the man you posit they all love. How about Bellevue Washington?

Alcon, what percentage of the vote is Obama going to get in November in Bellevue?