My 2008 prediction....

[NHPolitico]

Since my ELECTION 2004 election prediction was a few weeks ago and I promised I would do a 2008 prediction, here it is. The 2004 part might be new:

In November 2004, John Kerry and his running mate John Edwards lose to President George Bush and his VP Dick Cheney in a 405 to 133 race. Soon, it is 2007 and time for a new election. Running for the Democratic ticket are:

Former Senator Hillary Clinton (NY)
Senator Evan Bayh (IN)
Governor Gary Locke (WA)
Governor Jim Doyle (WI)
Governor Mark Warner (VA)

Republicans running for the ticket include:

Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld
Senate Majority Leater Bill Frist
National Security Advisor Condoleeza Rice
Senator Rudy Giuliani (NY)
Governor Rick Perry (TX)
Governor Mike Huckabee (AR)
Governor Kenny Guinn (NV)

By early 2008, front runner for the Democrat's is an unexpected winner in Iowa Caucus: Jim Doyle. Second is Hillary Clinton, and third is Gary Locke. After a New Hampshire win, Doyle seems to be in the lead.

The Republicans in Iowa have their three places filled as: Third place: Condi Rice, second: Donald Rumsfeld, and first: Giuliani. New Hampshire goes to Rumsfeld. All this still has no clear frontrunner for the right.

By late spring, the Democrat list loses two candidates: Jim Doyle, and Gary Locke. Left are Bayh, Clinton, and Warner.

The Republicans have lost Perry, Guinn, Huckabee, and Frist. A hard choice is put up for Republicans: Giuliani who led NYC through 9-11 and as Senator of NY for 2 years after beating Clinton in 2006, Rumsfeld who served as Secretary of Defense for 8 years, or Rice who served as National Security Advisor for 8 years.

Nomination goes for the Democratic ticket..... Senator Hillary Clinton after a near loss to Mark Warner. She chooses Senator Frank Lautenberg of New Jersey as he running mate.

Nomination for the Republican ticket......... Rudy Giuliani! He chooses Condoleeza Rice as his running mate.

In the debates, Clinton wins one, while Giuliani wins two. In the vp debate, Rice badly beats Lautenberg, after all she does have a very smart IQ. On election night, polls show Clinton 44%, Giuliani 56%. Giuliani-Rice beat Clinton-Lautenberg 300 to 228. Two months later, we have Vice President Rice and President Giuliani.

WHAT DO YOU THINK? FUN TO READ, I WOULD LIKE TO READ YOURS. WRITE YOUR PREDICTION NO MATTER WHAT THE OUTCOME.

The 2008 race, if Bush wins, starts this year after the election. I'm not just pushing a cliche. It will really and truly begin that moment.  

I predict Hillary will be the Minority Leader in the Senate if the GOP retains the Senate and Bush wins.

The GOP race will begin as soon as Bush's Cabinet is all set.  We'll know who is ascending and who isn't.  If Rice, for example, moves to Secretary of State, that will be a big sign that she wants more of a national presence, which would make her more agreeable to a Draft Condi movement (which is the way Condi would get into the race, not on her own).  

Donald Rumsfeld will not run in 2008. He won't even be in the Cabinet in 2005.

Bill Frist is an interesting commodity to me. I think he's like Kerry. Kerry needed Dean to fall on his face to end up with the nomination. He just has no charisma, but you know he'd be perfectly competent to run the country-- regardless of your ideology (I believe this of Kerry, by the way).

The three governors you name won't run for president, though Huckabee is an outstanding speaker, will be National Governors Association Chair in 2005, and would make a great presidential candidate if he could get down to 220-230.

[NHPolitico]

Beware, biased prediction coming up. I hope you can all enjoy it though.

John Kerry and running mate John Edwards win the 2004 election by a 272-266 margin. Consequently Kerry is the incumbent for 2008 and goes unchallenged (in spite of rumours within some media circles, ie. Drudge and Limbaugh, of a "coup" to install Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee.)

GWB's surprise 2004 defeat resulted in an ideological struggle within the Republican Party between moderates (helmed most noteably by John McCain and Rudolph Giuliani) and neocons (Santorum, Jeb Bush). Basically, the moderates believe that GWB lost the election because he was too right-wing and that only a more centre-right candidate could win an election, whereas the neocons believe quite the opposite - that GWB wasn't right-wing enough. This debate is reflected in the primaries, which reveal a deep divide within the GOP.

Rudolph Giuliani surprises many pundits by declaring that he will not run for President. Many believe this to be a ploy by the moderates to unite behind one candidate and not split their vote. That candidate is John McCain, who, just a few years earlier, many felt to be down and out due to ill health and a fading profile. However, his health problems thankfully behind him, McCain is the candidate many believe to be the most electable. His war record easily parallels Kerry's and his national stature is second to none.

Gov. Jeb Bush, after much dithering, eventually decides to throw his hat in the ring. At a rousing speech in St. Petersburg, FL, Jeb Bush declares his intention to run for President in front of his family, including father George, and of course brother George W. Rick Santorum, who some on the fringe of the GOP believed to have a shot at the nomination, decides not to split the neocon vote and instead endorse Jeb Bush. In fact, most of the endorsements reveal a split within the party - but obviously everybody involved denies such a thing. In the uselectionatlas.org forum, prominent user Jmfcst castigates cheeky British chappie Michael Z for even daring to suggest such a thing.

Other Republicans who feel they have a legitimate shot at challenging Kerry include Lamar Alexander, Elizabeth Dole, Lincoln Chaffee, Roy LaHood, and Jim Talent. However, as the primary season goes underway most of these candidates fall to the wayside and eventually drop out of the race, leaving voters with a clear choice between McCain and Jeb Bush, with many fearing a repeat of the 2000 primaries, which were dogged by fiercely negative campaigning between McCain and George W Bush. Thankfully these fears prove to be unfounded and the race is mainly a clean one.

In what turns out to be the most suspense-filled Republican primaries since 1976, McCain eventually wins... but only by a whisker.

And so the inevitable media speculation starts; who will be his running mate? Attention veers from Alexander to Hagel, E. Dole, Talent, Frist, Perry, and Don Rumsfeld(!). The favourite, however, turns out to be Rudolph Giuliani, who threw all his weight behind McCain during the primaries. Then McCain surprises everyone and chooses Bill Frist, a move no doubt designed to bridge the much-documented gap between moderates and not-so-moderates. Giuliani, word has it, will be rewarded for his loyalty in other ways, with a prominent role within a potential McCain Administration.

A brief scare is endured by Democrats when Howard Dean hints at running as the Green Party candidate. That fear, however, is eventually allayed when Jello Biafra is chosen instead (the Green Party's official line being that the ex-Dead Kennedys singer is a "more electable" candidate than Dean).

In November 2008, McCain/Frist take on Kerry/Edwards. Kerry narrowly wins. However, a second Kerry term is dogged by crisis for reasons of something-or-other (this is where my psychic future-telling abilities fail me), and so in 2012 Hagel/Perry beat Edwards/Ford.

Choosing a Kerry win makes things more complicated. Who knows what will happen that Kerry will get credit for. Some in the know believe bin Laden's capture is less than a year away. If it happens shortly thereafter-- like next April/May-- then Kerry may get the credit for it. That would change everything.  It's much better to put everyone on the same playing field in an open race.  McCain/Frist would be a fine fusion ticket, though.

[NHPolitico]

Republican Ticket: Bill Frist/ Lamar Alexander

You already know this can't happen, but Alexander would make an excellent VP for a conservative or moderate presidential candidate.

[NHPolitico]

I'll do a Bush win first, then akerry win.

Bush/Cheney win 2004 election.

In the Democratic Primaries, the main contenders are Howard Dean (Groan), John Edwards, Mark Warner, Hilary Clinton and Bill Richardson. Others include Sharpton, Feingold and Lieberman.

Over the process, two candidates merge with roughly equal votes at the convention, each with roughly 30% of the delegates. They are Warner and Richardson. Clinton has about 20%, Edwards 10% and the rest split between Dean and Sharpton, with Feingold and Lieberman ending up with basically zilch.

Clinton and Edwards endorse Warner, and Dean and Sharpton endorse Richardson. The final ticket is determined as Warner/Edwards.

The Republican primary has only three real contenders; Frist, Nussle and McCain.

Nussle easily wins his home state of Iowa, but his campaign stalls, and after the first super tuesday, he drops out, endorsing Frist.

McCain shoots ahead after winning CA and NY, to get the nomination. He selects Peter Fitzgerald as his running mate.

McCain/Fitzgerald and Waner/Edwards creates a very odd election. With the Democrats having two southerners, and the GOP having a western and mid-westerner, all previous election results are thrown out the window. In the end, McCain/Fitzgerald win, with a margin of 282-256. (I used 2004 EVs).

Fitzgerald has been forgotten since he was elected in 1998. He'll be even more forgotten by 2008.  I'd say McCain would pick a former governor as VP.

[NHPolitico]

Here is my 2004 and 2008 presidential election forecast as well as the 2006 mid-term elections

2004:

 Democrats:
     Sen. John Kerry P
     Gen. Wesley Clark VP

 Republicans:
     Pres. George W. Bush P
     V Pres. Richard Cheney VP

 Electoral Votes:   Rep. 280 -- Dem. 264

  California Goes for Bush
 
  GOP retain control of House and Senate

2006 Mid-Term:

  Dems regain control of Senate.  GOP retain control of the House.

2008:
 
  Democrats:
      Pres. Fmr. Gov. Roy Barnes (D-GA)
      V Pres. Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM)

  Republicans:
      Pres. Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R-ID)
      V Pres. Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-OK)

  Electoral Votes:  Dem. 247   Rep. 304

2012 Preview:

   Sen. John Edwards (D-NC) beats Fmr. Gov. Frank Keating (R-OK)

There is no way a guy who lost as badly as Barnes will make a triumphant comeback as the 2008 Dem nominee.

[NHPolitico]

I can't imagine Gov. Barbour running for president
But I suppose 4 years can make a lot of difference

No way on Barbour.

[NHPolitico]

Some pretty entertaining stuff here.  It's interesting to see Democrats predict the GOP nominee in '08, the field you guys are predicting is pretty pathetic and old school if you ask me.  After four years of Kerry (yes regrettably I think he's going to win), the GOP is going to be fired up in '08 and ready to win at all costs, just like the Dems are this year.

The party will be looking forward, not backwards.  I think these will be some of the names:

Frist - completely boring, lacks charisma and passion. A disaster in the making.

Pataki - Similar to Frist, though brings a little more excitement.  Not good enough for President, possible VP.

Giuliani - Too liberal to get the nomination.  Too much of a 'big' personality to be VP and play second fiddle.

Santorum - excellent all around.  Telegenic, articulate,  passionate, from a key state.  Will have a problem with the media though on social issues.  I think there's a good chance he wins the nomination and presidency if he runs.

Sununu Jr. - Same as Santorum above, but with a less intense, more appealing personality.  Would obviously kick butt in NH, which as we saw this year is crucial.  I can't think of anyone better right now, he'd be my pick.  He's only 39 right now, will be 43 by the election.  Like Clinton in '92, will be a big contrast to then 64 year old Kerry.

If Sununu can get McCain to be his VP he'll be golden.  McCain will neutralize the military service issue that Kerry will play up again, and also appeal to independents and Democrats.  McCain will also add some experience and age to the ticket.  

I've heard a lot of people mention Condi, I think she's headed back to academia.  Forget Rumsfeld, McCain, Hatch, Liz Dole, Lamar Alexander, they're too old school.  

I think this is the 2008 matchup:
GOP: Sununu/McCain
Dems: Kerry/Edwards or Clark

Remember you heard it here first:)

In a closer than expected election, Sununu becomes the youngest President since JFK.  This sets up a matchup against Hillary in 2012.  Sununu goes on to defeat Hillary soundly.      



 

I like John plenty, but he'll serve as governor first, before running for the WH.

[NHPolitico]

Some pretty entertaining stuff here.  It's interesting to see Democrats predict the GOP nominee in '08, the field you guys are predicting is pretty pathetic and old school if you ask me.

I might just be getting the wrong end of the stick here, but your tone suggests you seem to think that because of our political affiliation we don't know what the hell we're talking about. But I could be wrong, and I apologise if I am.

Anyway, Dole is a pretty good example of an "old school" candidate getting the nomination. Besides, age shouldn't be a stumbling block - look at Reagan.

Should Bush lose (which, realistically speaking, probably won't happen), the GOP, like any other mainstream political party, will look for the candidate they think is most likely to win; that does not automatically have to be a young candidate.

I think he just thinks that fresher faces (like Edwards and Clark this year) is the way to go.

[NHPolitico]

The Dems are not going to pick up Missouri or Arizona in 2004, in fact NV is a long shot.

Opebo, You ALWAYS overestimate Bush's support.  The thing is, if bush will hold on, it will be because of Kerry, not because of bush.  If edwards was the nominee, Bush would have NO chance.  I mean, none.  Kerry is a weak candidate, can Bush, who is up to his lip in slime, might hang on by a thread.

No, if Bush holds on it will be because of all that campaign cash and because we grab Mullah Omar and OBL.

[NHPolitico]

2012

Dole/Owens (R) - 56%, 326 EVs
Clinton/Warner (D) - 43% 212 EVs

Elizabeth Dole will be 76 in 2012!  It strikes me that most people who are projecting the race into 2012 are picking candidates who are influential NOW, not who will be influential in eight years.

Consider this: Eight years ago, it would not have been a stretch to imagine John Kerry as the Dem nominee.  But his chief opponents were Edwards, Dean, and Clark.  Who could have guessed in 1996 that any of those three would be contenders in 2004?   Most of the 2012 candidates will be people who do not currently have national recognition.

So maybe a more interesting question is: Who will be a contender for a major party nomination in 2012 who is NOT currently a Governor or Senator?

My guesses on the Dem side:
Emanual (IL)
Herseth (SD)
Spitzer (NY)

Not sure about GOP.

OK, here are some crystal ball choices for the GOP on either end of the ticket (age in 2012):

Bill Pryor, 50
Brian Sandoval, 46
Heather Wilson, 52
Jack Kingston, 57
Jon Bruning, 43
Ken Blackwell, 64
Lawrence Wasden, 55
Matt Blunt, 42
Melissa Hart, 50
Mike Cox, 51
Mike Rogers, 49
Phill Kline, 53
Todd Rokita, 43
Trey Grayson, 40

[NHPolitico]

2012

Dole/Owens (R) - 56%, 326 EVs
Clinton/Warner (D) - 43% 212 EVs

Elizabeth Dole will be 76 in 2012!  It strikes me that most people who are projecting the race into 2012 are picking candidates who are influential NOW, not who will be influential in eight years.

Consider this: Eight years ago, it would not have been a stretch to imagine John Kerry as the Dem nominee.  But his chief opponents were Edwards, Dean, and Clark.  Who could have guessed in 1996 that any of those three would be contenders in 2004?   Most of the 2012 candidates will be people who do not currently have national recognition.

So maybe a more interesting question is: Who will be a contender for a major party nomination in 2012 who is NOT currently a Governor or Senator?

My guesses on the Dem side:
Emanual (IL)
Herseth (SD)
Spitzer (NY)

Not sure about GOP.

And for 2020? Adam Putnam.

[NHPolitico]

One question:  Why is Edwards giving up his senate seat? and what will he do if he's not on the ticket/or the dems lose?

Because his re-election prospects were 50-50 at best and he wants to be president now or later and a loss in a re-election bid would end that dream.

[NHPolitico]

2012

Dole/Owens (R) - 56%, 326 EVs
Clinton/Warner (D) - 43% 212 EVs

Elizabeth Dole will be 76 in 2012!  It strikes me that most people who are projecting the race into 2012 are picking candidates who are influential NOW, not who will be influential in eight years.

Consider this: Eight years ago, it would not have been a stretch to imagine John Kerry as the Dem nominee.  But his chief opponents were Edwards, Dean, and Clark.  Who could have guessed in 1996 that any of those three would be contenders in 2004?   Most of the 2012 candidates will be people who do not currently have national recognition.

So maybe a more interesting question is: Who will be a contender for a major party nomination in 2012 who is NOT currently a Governor or Senator?

My guesses on the Dem side:
Emanual (IL)
Herseth (SD)
Spitzer (NY)

Not sure about GOP.

And for 2020? Adam Putnam.

Lol...any guesses on 2040? Or 2060? Or why not 3004, wjile we're at it...

This is getting out of hand...

Well, my daughter will be president in 2052.

[NHPolitico]

OK, here are some crystal ball choices for the GOP on either end of the ticket (age in 2012):

Bill Pryor, 50
Brian Sandoval, 46
Heather Wilson, 52
Jack Kingston, 57
Jon Bruning, 43
Ken Blackwell, 64
Lawrence Wasden, 55
Matt Blunt, 42
Melissa Hart, 50
Mike Cox, 51
Mike Rogers, 49
Phill Kline, 53
Todd Rokita, 43
Trey Grayson, 40

I know Wilson, Kingston, Hart, and Rogers are in the U.S. House, (though I think there are two Mike Rogers's in Congress) and Pryor is an Alabama Attorney General, Blunt a Missouri Sec. of State who is running for Governor, Blackwell an Ohio Sec. of State, Sandoval a Nevada Attorney General, but who are the rest?

Yes, I meant the Mike Rogers from Michigan. Click the names to go to their pages.

Jon Bruning, 43
Lawrence Wasden, 55
Mike Cox, 51
Phill Kline, 53
Todd Rokita, 43
Trey Grayson, 40

I tried to pick young politicians who were good looking and in positions that would make advancement very possible.

[NHPolitico]

NHPolitico, I'm from Bedford where are you from?

Upper Valley.

[NHPolitico]

We need two generally unknowns who get the nominations. For examples: WHO WOULD WIN?

Gop: Mike Huckabee/Robert Riley
Dem: Robert Byrd/Kent Conrad
President Huckabee or President Byrd?

Gop: Katherine Harris/John Hoeven
Dem: Thomas Carper/Bob Wise
President Harris or President Carper?

Gop: Rick Perry/Robert Ehrlich
Dem: Phil Bredesen/Byron Dorgon
President Perry or President Bredesen?

What do you mean "We need two generally unknowns who get the nominations"?  Can you elaborate on that sentence? I say Huckabee beats Byrd, Carper beats Harris, Perry beats Bredesen.

[NHPolitico]

I've never heard of Upper Valley, where is that?

Dartmouth/Lake Sunapee region

[NHPolitico]

if he did get the nomination he'd beat Harris, unless America evolved into a mental asylum.

Harris winning isn't the equivalent of Sharpton or Kucinich winning.

[NHPolitico]

yes, she's nothing compared to Granholm

They're both pikers compared to Cindy McCain.

[NHPolitico]

She's an attractive, young, conservative republican and Secretary of State for Florida. Why not?

1) She's 43 and looks like a rat.



2) She's a member of congress

That photo is doctored by the way.  Harris even said that she deon't own blue eye shaddow.

This one's real...

[NHPolitico]

On the subject of the changing demographics of the South West I hear that the majority of Texans will be Spanish speaking by 2010... and it will be similar in the whole of the south west...interesting...

Scary stuff.

Que?

[NHPolitico]

Now, tell me that this wouldn't be electric.

[NHPolitico]

That would be a great ticket, but I'm not sure if McCain would give it another shot.

They look so great together. That should be reason enough!

[NHPolitico]

yes, she's nothing compared to Granholm

Here's a better pic of Cindy.

[NHPolitico]

Rice, Powell, Giuliani, or McCain could win in a heartbeat. Name reconization, you name it. Even against Hillary who is NOT attractive!!!!!

No, she is not by any stretch of the imagination.

Lisa Murkowski is okay...

OK, so I wouldn't kick Jennifer Granholm out of the bed.

Lisa Murkowski? Blanche Lincoln is prettier.



vs.