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Author Topic: CA: Rasmussen: Clinton Leads CA by 5%; Obama Leads by 7%  (Read 9014 times)
Lunar
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« Reply #25 on: December 03, 2008, 09:08:18 pm »
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Also, those rich, affluent white people in Orange and San Diego counties are Republicans, and after all the gaffes, I doubt they are going to be tempted to go out and vote for Obama over the very acceptable McCain.

Look I understand the affluent areas in Orange and San Diego counties vote heavily republican and they probably will this year too but I was talking about trends. I think Obama can trend those places towards the dem. Also Orange county is not as wealthy as you guys think( at least by california standards) and there are plenty off poorer Hispanic and Asian areas that just may vote dem in a troubled economic year. Same deal with San diego county, lots of poorer areas mixed in with the affluent. Many seem to think Obama will not do well amongst poorer voters here in California as compared to Clinton, but that is only a guess. Nothing in the polls points to that and I sincerely believe most hispanics and asians who voted for Clinton did not do so for racist reasons. Thus if Obama becomes a little more specific with policies he could win these voters over.

Sorry but I have to bring this back...sh**t is too hilarious. The basic lesson of the thread being don't talk unless you know what you are talking about. The reason Bush did so well in southern california in 2004 was because he did extremely well among socal latinos and asians. It is important to understand the bolded part before you start spouting off about OC elections and nobody on this forum seemed to care. Thus the reason why everyone was expecting a double digit win for Mccain. I didn't quite predict the final score in OC and SD but I called the trends that would occur. LOL especially at John Ford, obviously he had no clue what he was talking about. It was pretty clear to me back in April socal was trending dem, regardless of the final election results.

To be fair (and again, I hate being fair), all indications way back when were not that Obama was going to obtain ahistorical support among Latinos.  They voted against him 2-1 in the primaries (versus 2-1 for him in the general), and McCain historically had been one of the most pro-immigration Republicans.

Few predicted that Obama would do as well as he did among Hispanics back then
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« Reply #26 on: December 03, 2008, 09:12:57 pm »
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To be fair (and again, I hate being fair), all indications way back when were not that Obama was going to obtain ahistorical support among Latinos.  They voted against him 2-1 in the primaries (versus 2-1 for him in the general), and McCain historically had been one of the most pro-immigration Republicans.

Few predicted that Obama would do as well as he did among Hispanics back then

Even back then, General election polling was pretty much showing the GOP brand was deathly tainted among Hispanics.  Of course, all the pundits were totally ignoring that, but the signs were definitely there.  I even said as much in this thread.  That's why the Nevada polling at the time was so f'in puzzling.  Demographically, Obama being 5-6 points behind there made no sense.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2008, 09:16:49 pm by Alcon »Logged

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« Reply #27 on: December 03, 2008, 09:14:47 pm »
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At some point it will have to sink in with Democrats: America is not electing a black man President in 2008.  They will either come to understand this before their convention and save their party from blowing the election or they will wake up the day after the election with President McCain.


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« Reply #28 on: December 03, 2008, 09:39:38 pm »
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Also, those rich, affluent white people in Orange and San Diego counties are Republicans, and after all the gaffes, I doubt they are going to be tempted to go out and vote for Obama over the very acceptable McCain.

Look I understand the affluent areas in Orange and San Diego counties vote heavily republican and they probably will this year too but I was talking about trends. I think Obama can trend those places towards the dem. Also Orange county is not as wealthy as you guys think( at least by california standards) and there are plenty off poorer Hispanic and Asian areas that just may vote dem in a troubled economic year. Same deal with San diego county, lots of poorer areas mixed in with the affluent. Many seem to think Obama will not do well amongst poorer voters here in California as compared to Clinton, but that is only a guess. Nothing in the polls points to that and I sincerely believe most hispanics and asians who voted for Clinton did not do so for racist reasons. Thus if Obama becomes a little more specific with policies he could win these voters over.

Sorry but I have to bring this back...sh**t is too hilarious. The basic lesson of the thread being don't talk unless you know what you are talking about. The reason Bush did so well in southern california in 2004 was because he did extremely well among socal latinos and asians. It is important to understand the bolded part before you start spouting off about OC elections and nobody on this forum seemed to care. Thus the reason why everyone was expecting a double digit win for Mccain. I didn't quite predict the final score in OC and SD but I called the trends that would occur. LOL especially at John Ford, obviously he had no clue what he was talking about. It was pretty clear to me back in April socal was trending dem, regardless of the final election results.

To be fair (and again, I hate being fair), all indications way back when were not that Obama was going to obtain ahistorical support among Latinos.  They voted against him 2-1 in the primaries (versus 2-1 for him in the general), and McCain historically had been one of the most pro-immigration Republicans.

Few predicted that Obama would do as well as he did among Hispanics back then

Yeah I don't know how this perception came to being. All the polling data was showing something different and considering the immigration fiasco of 2005 and how latinos voted in 2006, it should have been pretty obvious what the result would have been.
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« Reply #29 on: December 05, 2008, 08:28:33 pm »
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In addition the financial industry went down the sh**tters and it is possible many in that field voted democrat for the first time.

I suspect that irt wasn't just people in the financial ndustry who voted Democrat for the first time after the stock market crash.  The crash is the #1 reason Obama won the election.
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Shut you hole... Conservatism is dead. I hope I get to see your head paraded on a pike with it.
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