CA: Rasmussen: Clinton Leads CA by 5%; Obama Leads by 7%

[Sbane]

I'm going to say that California will be a less than 10 point loss for McCain.

And what exactly makes you say that? I can almost assure you Ventura,Orange and San Diego counties will vote in higher numbers for Obama than Kerry. Obama probably does better in la and the bay area but the places to watch will be the central valley and the Inland Empire. If he can do better here Obama could crack 57 but that seems to be his ceiling. I think most likely Obama wins by 12-15 points but watch out for the IE, it could deliver Obama a bigger margin.

[Sbane]

California will not be a 15% victory for Obama unless he wins in a landslide. Honestly, this state is not as blue as a lot of people think it is on this forum. Why would Republican strongholds like Orange, San Diego, and Ventura counties have a heavy Obama turnout? Why is that an argument that everyone uses. "Oh well turnout will be heavy for Obama in _____ county!!!"

There is no basis for your arguments. Stop playing this guessing game!

The demographics are good for Obama in those counties and that is why I say he will improve the margins in those states compared to 2004. The reason I say it is doubtful Obama improves margins in the Inland Empire is because of its demographics. Now I am basing these numbers of a very slight Obama win in which case California would give Obama a margin of say around 12-13%.

[Sbane]

What people forget about California is that the mosdt important fact about this state is not veter registration or demographics or ideology or the economy.

The most important fact about this state is its sheer size.  We have nearly double the population of New York.  Its amazing how often this gets forgotten.

Because of the size of the state there is tremendous inertia that favors Democrats.  Democrats clearly have an advantage here in generic terms of maybe 8% or so in most years.  What I mean bythat is that if everyone in state showed up to vote and knew nothing about the two candidates except their party affiliation the Democrat would win by 8% or so.  This year, the Democrat would win by more than that because the year will not be a good one for Republicans.

In order to break through this inertia that favors Democrats, you must spend a massive sum of money to advertise in huge, expensive media markets.  If a Republican cannot advertise himself as an individual who is compelling to voters he cannot win here.  He will be no more compelling than his party affiliation, which is to say he will not be very compelling at all.

If John McCain had Bush's or Obama's fundraising prowess and this were not such a Democratic year, he could win California.  He does well among latinos, suburbanites, and independents (The three most important groups for California Republicans to win).  But he simply does not have the money required to run competitively here, and even if he did, this is such a Democratic year that even a herculean effort would be unlikely to win California.

Yeah I agree Mccain could win California if he took some socially liberal position and the republicans had a good year. But to the best of my knowledge Mccain has not taken any socially liberal position and this is not a good year for republicans. Plus Obama is a good candidate for California as he maximizes his vote amongst the affluent areas here in southern california. But Mccain is strong with hispanics which could get him a victory yet i am guessing after the whole immigration issue, hispanics arent really itching to vote republican.

[Sbane]

Also, those rich, affluent white people in Orange and San Diego counties are Republicans, and after all the gaffes, I doubt they are going to be tempted to go out and vote for Obama over the very acceptable McCain.

Look I understand the affluent areas in Orange and San Diego counties vote heavily republican and they probably will this year too but I was talking about trends. I think Obama can trend those places towards the dem. Also Orange county is not as wealthy as you guys think( at least by california standards) and there are plenty off poorer Hispanic and Asian areas that just may vote dem in a troubled economic year. Same deal with San diego county, lots of poorer areas mixed in with the affluent. Many seem to think Obama will not do well amongst poorer voters here in California as compared to Clinton, but that is only a guess. Nothing in the polls points to that and I sincerely believe most hispanics and asians who voted for Clinton did not do so for racist reasons. Thus if Obama becomes a little more specific with policies he could win these voters over.

[Sbane]

Also, those rich, affluent white people in Orange and San Diego counties are Republicans, and after all the gaffes, I doubt they are going to be tempted to go out and vote for Obama over the very acceptable McCain.

Look I understand the affluent areas in Orange and San Diego counties vote heavily republican and they probably will this year too but I was talking about trends. I think Obama can trend those places towards the dem. Also Orange county is not as wealthy as you guys think( at least by california standards) and there are plenty off poorer Hispanic and Asian areas that just may vote dem in a troubled economic year. Same deal with San diego county, lots of poorer areas mixed in with the affluent. Many seem to think Obama will not do well amongst poorer voters here in California as compared to Clinton, but that is only a guess. Nothing in the polls points to that and I sincerely believe most hispanics and asians who voted for Clinton did not do so for racist reasons. Thus if Obama becomes a little more specific with policies he could win these voters over.

Sorry but I have to bring this back...sh**t is too hilarious. The basic lesson of the thread being don't talk unless you know what you are talking about. The reason Bush did so well in southern california in 2004 was because he did extremely well among socal latinos and asians. It is important to understand the bolded part before you start spouting off about OC elections and nobody on this forum seemed to care. Thus the reason why everyone was expecting a double digit win for Mccain. I didn't quite predict the final score in OC and SD but I called the trends that would occur. LOL especially at John Ford, obviously he had no clue what he was talking about. It was pretty clear to me back in April socal was trending dem, regardless of the final election results.

[Sbane]

Obama is doing well among affluent well educated Democrats.  I don't dispute that.  But that is very different from sbane's claim that Obama will do well among rich white people in Orange County.

Should have been a little more specific huh? Mccain held up just fine( at least trend wise) in uber rich white areas like Villa park, Newport beach, Coto de caza and inland, white areas of cities like Placentia, Yorba linda, Fullerton, Brea etc. I correctly predicted that Asians and especially latinos would swing hard towards Obama. That in itself accounts for a lot of Obama's swing. In addition highly educated whites swung hard towards Obama, accounting for the swing he saw in south OC and places like HB. Irvine had a ridiculous 23 point swing and all of it cannot be explained by UC Irvine. In addition there were big swings in Costa mesa, Tustin, HB, and most of those south OC cities but especially Laguna hills, Dana point, Lake Forest etc. The people who live here are rich, very well educated and usually working either in tech or finance. Techies love a candidate like Obama and that is evidenced by swings in south OC, Ventura and Santa Clara counties. In addition the financial industry went down the sh**tters and it is possible many in that field voted democrat for the first time.

[Sbane]

Also, those rich, affluent white people in Orange and San Diego counties are Republicans, and after all the gaffes, I doubt they are going to be tempted to go out and vote for Obama over the very acceptable McCain.

Look I understand the affluent areas in Orange and San Diego counties vote heavily republican and they probably will this year too but I was talking about trends. I think Obama can trend those places towards the dem. Also Orange county is not as wealthy as you guys think( at least by california standards) and there are plenty off poorer Hispanic and Asian areas that just may vote dem in a troubled economic year. Same deal with San diego county, lots of poorer areas mixed in with the affluent. Many seem to think Obama will not do well amongst poorer voters here in California as compared to Clinton, but that is only a guess. Nothing in the polls points to that and I sincerely believe most hispanics and asians who voted for Clinton did not do so for racist reasons. Thus if Obama becomes a little more specific with policies he could win these voters over.

Sorry but I have to bring this back...sh**t is too hilarious. The basic lesson of the thread being don't talk unless you know what you are talking about. The reason Bush did so well in southern california in 2004 was because he did extremely well among socal latinos and asians. It is important to understand the bolded part before you start spouting off about OC elections and nobody on this forum seemed to care. Thus the reason why everyone was expecting a double digit win for Mccain. I didn't quite predict the final score in OC and SD but I called the trends that would occur. LOL especially at John Ford, obviously he had no clue what he was talking about. It was pretty clear to me back in April socal was trending dem, regardless of the final election results.

To be fair (and again, I hate being fair), all indications way back when were not that Obama was going to obtain ahistorical support among Latinos.  They voted against him 2-1 in the primaries (versus 2-1 for him in the general), and McCain historically had been one of the most pro-immigration Republicans.

Few predicted that Obama would do as well as he did among Hispanics back then

Yeah I don't know how this perception came to being. All the polling data was showing something different and considering the immigration fiasco of 2005 and how latinos voted in 2006, it should have been pretty obvious what the result would have been.