Meeker's disasterous attempt at counting (Now featuring accurate numbers!)

[Јas]

Please stop using these computer programmes to try and figure out the election.
Your quota calculations are incorrect - this isn't the Scottish methodology, it's not a Droop quota system.
Nor are candidates on the same preferences ranked randomly.

Please read the PR Act.

[Јas]

Please correct me if I have made any errors, which is likely. The legislation is a tad confusing.

Quota: 5.167

The quota is always a whole number, so here is where you went wrong.

[Јas]

I either did the quota formula calculation wrong, or it's wrong in the legislation.

PR Act, Section 5:
The ‘quota’ (i.e. the number of votes required to be deemed elected) shall then be calculated as the whole number (disregarding any attached fraction) resulting from the following equation:

[Total Valid Poll/(Number of seats to be filled + 1)] + 1


Currently the total valid poll is 30 (Last voter Alcon).
Therefore, the quota = 30/6 + 1 = 6
(As the section states if there is an attached fraction you disregard it - though obviously there isn't in this case.)

I really don't see where confusion could arise in calculating the quota, nor where the legislation is in error in this regard.

If you can't calculate the quota, nor understand the legislation, then it may be best to wait until the official result is announced to see how the SoFA goes through it.

[Јas]

I either did the quota formula calculation wrong, or it's wrong in the legislation.

PR Act, Section 5:
The ‘quota’ (i.e. the number of votes required to be deemed elected) shall then be calculated as the whole number (disregarding any attached fraction) resulting from the following equation:

[Total Valid Poll/(Number of seats to be filled + 1)] + 1


Currently the total valid poll is 30 (Last voter Alcon).
Therefore, the quota = 30/6 + 1 = 6
(As the section states if there is an attached fraction you disregard it - though obviously there isn't in this case.)

I really don't see where confusion could arise in calculating the quota, nor where the legislation is in error in this regard.

If you can't calculate the quota, nor understand the legislation, then it may be best to wait until the official result is announced to see how the SoFA goes through it.

Jas, I really want to understand how it works, in case I ever get my dream job of SoFA So, I ask you, do we always round up to get the quota?

No. Calculate according to the formula and ignore any attached fraction.

Also, I think for transparency reasons, it would really be nice if the voters understood the system. I'm not too sure I like your attitude toward this is. 

My attitude is linked simply to that now three people have decided to try and perform counts without following what the legislation actually says but instead trying to short-cut the process.

During the ratification process, I campaigned extensively on educating people as to the system. I've now done two counts in the other thread which explain how matters progress, and I'm more than happy to answer any questions anyone has. Beyond this, the SoFA will, of course, perform his own official and, I'm sure, transparent count - which should clarify things further.

[Јas]

I agree with Earl here. I think you have to explain, step by step an example election under our system and identify the specific STV method used. Even I'm struggling.

Count based on current votes: last voter: Brandon

Total Votes: 33
Quota = [Total Votes / (# Seats + 1) + 1]
= [33 / (5+1)] + 1
= [33 / 6] + 1
= 5.5 + 1
= 6.5
As explained, the fraction is disregarded.
Therefore, the quota is 6.

Count 1
Rockefeller: 5
Earl: 5
afleitch: 4
Lewis: 4
Colin Wixted: 2
Sensei: 2
Bacon King: 2
Jake: 2
CultureKing: 2
SPC: 2
Hashemite: 1
KoBP: 1
HW: 1

Candidates tied on the same number of 1st preferences have been differentiated on the basis of total 2nd preferences, or where necessary 3rd preferences, etc. etc.

Nobody has reached the quota of 6, therefore nobody has been elected.
The lowest ranked candidate, HappyWarrior is eliminated and his vote passes to the person who was stated thereon as the next highest preference.

Count 2
Distribution of HappyWarrior Vote

Rockefeller: 5
Earl: 5
afleitch: 4
Lewis: 4
Sensei: 3 (+1)
Colin Wixted: 2
Bacon King: 2
Jake: 2
CultureKing: 2
SPC: 2
Hashemite: 1
KoBP: 1
HW: 0 (-1)

Matchu[D] voted #1 HappyWarrior, #2 Sensei: therefore the vote passes to Sensei. This is exactly the same as in our regular IRV elections.

Still, nobody elected, so the lowest candidate is eliminated.

To continue below...

[Јas]

Count 3
KoBP Distribution

Rockefeller: 5
Earl: 5
afleitch: 4
Lewis: 4
Sensei: 3
Colin Wixted: 3 (+1)
Bacon King: 2
Jake: 2
CultureKing: 2
SPC: 2
Hashemite: 1
KoBP: 0 (-1)
HW: 0

KoBP voted for himself #1, Colin #2, so the vote flows to Colin.
Nobody is elected, so we eliminate the lowest candidate, Hashemite.

Count 4
Hashemite Distribution

Rockefeller: 6 (+1)
Earl: 5
afleitch: 4
Lewis: 4
Sensei: 3
Colin Wixted: 3
Bacon King: 2
Jake: 2
CultureKing: 2
SPC: 2
Hashemite: 0 (-1)
KoBP: 0
HW: 0

hashemite voted himself #1, Rocky #2. The vote flows to Rocky.
Rocky now has 6, the quota and so is elected.
He has no surplus that can be distributed. So we eliminate the lowest candidate SPC.

Continued below...

[Јas]

Count 5
SPC Distribution

Rockefeller: 6
Earl: 5
afleitch: 5 (+1)
Lewis: 4
Sensei: 3
Colin Wixted: 3
Jake: 3 (+1)
Bacon King: 2
CultureKing: 2
SPC: 0 (-2)
Hashemite: 0
KoBP: 0
HW: 0

SPC voted himself #1, afleitch #2. The vote flows to afleitch.
Brandon voted himself #1, Jake #2. The vote flows to Jake.
Nobody elected, we continue the eliminations with CultureKing.


Count 6
CultureKing Distribution

Rockefeller: 6
Lewis: 6 (+2)
Earl: 5
afleitch: 5
Sensei: 3
Colin Wixted: 3
Jake: 3
Bacon King: 2
CultureKing: 0 (-2)
SPC: 0
Hashemite: 0
KoBP: 0
HW: 0

Ebowed and friz both voted CultureKing #1, Lewsi #2, so both votes go to Lewis.
Lewis now has 6 votes and is elected.
There is no surplus to distribute, so we continue the eliminations with Bacon King.

Continued below...

[Јas]

Count 7
CultureKing Distribution

Rockefeller: 6
Lewis: 6
afleitch: 6 (+1)
Earl: 5
Colin Wixted: 4 (+1)
Sensei: 3
Jake: 3
Bacon King: 0 (-2)
CultureKing: 0
SPC: 0
Hashemite: 0
KoBP: 0
HW: 0

Verily voted BK #1, Colin #2.
hughento voted BK#1, afleitch #2.
Both Colin and afleitch gain a vote.
afleitch now has 6 and is elected.
Again no surplus, so we continue with eliminations. This time Jake.


Count 8
Jake Distribution

Rockefeller: 6
Lewis: 6
afleitch: 6
Colin Wixted: 6 (+2)
Earl: 5
Sensei: 4 (+1)
Jake: 0 (-3)
Bacon King: 0 
CultureKing: 0
SPC: 0
Hashemite: 0
KoBP: 0
HW: 0

Keystone Phil voted Jake #1, Colin #2. This vote goes to Colin.
Sam Spade voted Jake #1, KoBP #2, Sensei #2. As KoBP has already been eliminated, the vote goes to Sensei.
The 3rd vote for Jake is BrandonH's, which he gained when SPC was eliminated earlier. Brandon's vote goes to his #7 preference Colin as all his earlier preferences have either been elected or eliminated.

The 2 votes to Colin get him to 6 and he is elected.
That only leaves 2 candidates, Earl and Sensei for 1 seat.
There are no votes that can be redistributed. As Earl is ahead, he is elected to the last seat.

Result
#1 Rocky
#2 Lewis
#3 afleitch
#4 Colin
#5 Earl

I'll answer any questions anyone has on this.

[Јas]

My only concern, and correct me if I am wrong - if a candidate fails to receive one 1st preference vote, yet say got second preference in all other votes what happens to him? For example, Colin at the moment has 1 first preference vote, yet 12 second preferences.

What usually happens (in order to do away with 0 votes, as the quote formula does) is to up everyones vote by 1 (or even 0.0000001 etc) so that 0 becomes 1 and 4 becomes 5 etc.

If a candidate doesn't receive any 1st preferences then they are effectively the first people eliminated, unless on the first count a candidate or candidates surpass the quota and the candidates receive some of the transfers.

And if a candidate can't get around to first preferencing themselves, then they have nobody but themselves to blame if they are eliminated on 0 votes.

(At any rate, I currently have Colin down as having 2 #1 votes - his own and MAS's. MAS #1'd PD, but under the write-in rules, unless PD shows up to claim the vote, the write-in for PD is ignored and so it's de facto a Colin 1st preference.)

Also the moment a candidate meets the quote - no more votes can flow to them. I noted in Peters calculation that a vote flowed to Earl after he had been elected. If it was a party vote however, with multiple candidates then the votes would keep flowing.

I don't believe candidates already deemed elected can receive transfers, so I disagree with the later counts of Peter in this regard.

Under the terms of the PR Act, section 11 states that eliminated candidates transfers can only go to "remaining candidates"; section 13 says that surplus votes can only be transfered to "candidates still capable of election". By my interpretation (and indeed my intention when drafting it) persons deemed elected are no longer, by definition, candidates for election.

[Јas]

How the bill is interpreted can lead to vastly different outcomes because the numbers in our election are small. This could go to the courts.

It wouldn't be the first Atlasian election to do so, and it wouldn't be the last.
Just about every election statute in Atlasian history has been adjudicated over.

Getting a court decision isn't necessarily a bad thing, it adds clarity and allows for propoer reflection and amending legislation if necessary. It's only a problem when the people involved in the decision seek to make it a problem.

[Јas]

As of Opebos vote, and assuming all votes are valid then Earl, Lewis, Rocky, Sensei and myself get through. However Colin is close for the 6th spot. Ultimately the NLC is effectively cancelling itself out.

Having just re-counted again, I disagree with your result.

Last voter: opebo
Total poll: 35
Quota: 6 (will rise to 7 with the next vote cast)

1st Count
Lewis: 5
Rockefeller: 5
Earl: 5
afleitch: 4
CultureKing: 3
Colin Wixted: 2
Sensei: 2
Bacon King: 2
Jake: 2
SPC: 2
Hashemite: 1
KoBP: 1
HW: 1

Candidates tied are ordered based on lower preferences.
Nobody elected.

2nd Count
To save time, I'm eliminating HW, KoBP, and Hashemite together. They would be eliminated in that order and the result of doing it either way is the same, so...

Rockefeller: 6 (+1 from Hashemite)
Lewis: 5
Earl: 5
afleitch: 4
CultureKing: 3
Colin Wixted: 3 (+1 from KoBP)
Sensei: 3 (+1 from HW)
Bacon King: 2
Jake: 2
SPC: 2
Hashemite: 0 (-1) (to Rocky)
KoBP: 0 (-1) (to Colin)
HW: 0 (-1) (to Sensei)

Rocky elected #1. No surplus, so eliminations continue.


3rd Count
SPC eliminated

Rockefeller: 6 
Lewis: 5
Earl: 5
afleitch: 5 (+1)
CultureKing: 3
Colin Wixted: 3
Sensei: 3 
Jake: 3 (+1)
Bacon King: 2
SPC: 0 (-2) (to afleitch & Jake)

Nobody elected.
Bacon King eliminated.


4th Count
BK eliminated

Rockefeller: 6 
afleitch: 6 (+1)
Lewis: 5
Earl: 5
Colin Wixted: 4 (+1)
CultureKing: 3
Sensei: 3 
Jake: 3
Bacon King: 0 (-2) (to Colin & afleitch)

afleitch elected #2. No surplus, eliminations continue.


5th Count
Jake eliminated

Rockefeller: 6 
afleitch: 6
Lewis: 6 (+1)
Earl: 5
Colin Wixted: 5 (+1)
Sensei: 4 (+1) 
CultureKing: 3
Jake: 0 (-3) (To Colin, Sensei & Lewis)

Lewis elected #3, no surplus. Eliminations continue.


6th Count
CK out

Rockefeller: 6 
afleitch: 6
Lewis: 6
Colin Wixted: 7 (+2)
Earl: 6 (+1)
Sensei: 4 
CultureKing: 0 (-3) (2 to Colin, 1 to Earl)

Colin and Earl elected to positions #4 and #5.
All positions having been filled, the election count ends.

Result
#1 Rocky
#2 afleitch
#3 Lewis
#4 Colin
#5 Earl

[Јas]

I'm in last place?

Technically, second last (13th). Willy Woz is in last place as he has yet to get a first preference vote. (Had you voted for yourself #1 or should you get the next 1st preference vote, you would be 10th.)

[Јas]

Thought I'd be able to do at least reasonably well.

Well I would say that given that you didn't vote for yourself; that you are the #3 candidate on the PLP ticket (and indeed you voted to put yourself in that #3 spot); and that you haven't made a very visible campaigning effort for votes - it could be perceived that you haven't been entirely concerned about winning a Senate seat, which may be being reflected in the votes so far.

[Јas]

New Quota!

Last voter: PBrunsel
Total poll: 42
Quota: 8

[....]

9th count
Lewis: 8 0.73: Franzl, Jas, Al, Red, Lewis, Verin, Brandon, Ebowed, Friz, Opebo, CK
Rockefeller: 7.27 1: SoS, Jedi, Inks, AndrewCT, Polnut, Hashemite, PBrunsel. 0.27: Franzl
afleitch: 7.27 1: Rocky, Bullmoose, Frodo, Alcon, Afleitch, SPC, Hugh. 0.27: Brandon
Earl: 7.09 1: Earl, benconstine, Happy, TCash, Old Europe, Xahar. 0.27: Al, Red, Lewis, Opebo
Colin Wixted: 6.82 1: Colin, MAS, KoBP, Phil, Verily, Bacon. 0.27: Jas, Ebowed, Friz
Sensei: 5.55 1: Sensei, Cookies, Meeker, Matchu, Sam. 0.27: Verin, CK

Sensei eliminated. Rockefeller, afleitch, Earl, Colin elected without a quota.

FTR, I agreed entirely with this count.
My updated count here is my run through up to and including the 43rd vote, that of Peter Bell.

[Јas]

One thing I'm not quite clear on.  If an candidate is eliminated and a voter has as their next preference a candidate that has already met quota, does that candidate's surplus get refigured, or skipped?  It makes a difference in the numbers at least since EarlAW meets quota and then is in a position to pick up transfered votes from Sensei.

I had intended to have it such that persons already deemed elected should not receive additional votes thereafter. However, I'll grant that the wording of the Act is not absolutely clear on this point and is probably open to interpretation.

It's something which should probably be clarified in the Act. I intend to draft an amendment to the Act anyway to make a number of points clearer and easier to follow.