Meeker's disasterous attempt at counting (Now featuring accurate numbers!)

[afleitch]

Do we have an online program for this?

[afleitch]

I think I have the millstone title of being the only one on the forum who has been on an STV ballot before As long as the counting is resolved far quicker!

[afleitch]

Also, I think for transparency reasons, it would really be nice if the voters understood the system. I'm not too sure I like your attitude toward this is. 

I agree with Earl here. I think you have to explain, step by step an example election under our system and identify the specific STV method used. Even I'm struggling.

For the record, and for those busy downloading calculators, the Scottish STV method is probably the simplest/most straightforward method of STV. It has supplanted the BC method in most scenarios. Also, when the legislation mentions condorcet, that's a method whereby you use STV to elect one member (or in tie-breakers)

[afleitch]

What happens if you accidentally use a fairly high up number twice, as I just noticed (within the twenty minutes, thankfully) that I had. Is the whole ballot discarded or only the pref.s from there on?

Good question. At the Scottish elections last year all preferences below the error would have been discarded.

[afleitch]

My only concern, and correct me if I am wrong - if a candidate fails to receive one 1st preference vote, yet say got second preference in all other votes what happens to him? For example, Colin at the moment has 1 first preference vote, yet 12 second preferences.

What usually happens (in order to do away with 0 votes, as the quote formula does) is to up everyones vote by 1 (or even 0.0000001 etc) so that 0 becomes 1 and 4 becomes 5 etc.

Also the moment a candidate meets the quote - no more votes can flow to them. I noted in Peters calculation that a vote flowed to Earl after he had been elected. If it was a party vote however, with multiple candidates then the votes would keep flowing.

[afleitch]

If we do the above, then watch how closely Sensei and Earls votes shadow each other etc.

As of Opebos vote, and assuming all votes are valid then Earl, Lewis, Rocky, Sensei and myself get through. However Colin is close for the 6th spot. Ultimately the NLC is effectively cancelling itself out.

How the bill is interpreted can lead to vastly different outcomes because the numbers in our election are small. This could go to the courts.

[afleitch]

I worked it out the same way as Lewis.

[afleitch]

Just for comparison - Results, if voting stopped now) under different systems.

IRV - Earl, Afleitch, Sensei, Lewis, and Rocky
Scottish - Colin, Earl, Afleitch, Lewis, and Rocky.
British Columbia - Colin, Earl, Afleitch, Lewis, and Rocky
Northern Ireland - Earl, Afleitch, Sensei, Lewis, and Rocky
Borda - Colin, Afleitch, Sensei, Lewis, and Rocky
Fractional Transfer - Earl, Afleitch, Sensei, Lewis, and Rocky

[afleitch]

I was gonna update for DWDL but he didn't post 15 times in the 56 days before poll opening.

It would have quite complicated effects, though: Pushing out Jake before SPC and as a result pushing out Bacon King instead of Colin. Haven't calculated how things go on after that. Quite likely that Colin might pull through though.

EDIT: I have calculated it by now, and yes, he would. I also had to distribute Colin's surplus to determine that Earl and not Sensei would take the fifth seat.

Ultimately at this stage in the game, no one is 'safe' A flurry of a dozen votes can change things alot

[afleitch]

Aargh! I need to deliver some more votes for Sensei.

Actually, your best bet is to eliminate Colin early.

Same thing.

Not quite. There is an easy way to do what you want to do. But I can't of course tell you that

[afleitch]

Aw

There is likely to be a flurry of votes before the polls close. No one is really safe and people like yourself are not ;out of it' either. My own chances of election are still on a knife edge.

[afleitch]

Colin and Afleitch elected. Even if whole redistributed surpluses flow to Lewis, the tiebreaker rule elects Culture King.

Yeah, like I said in the PM I talked about earlier, it looks like this is the case—the incorrectly flowed vote from Xahar appears to have elected Culture King at the expense of Lewis Trondheim.

The tweaked computer programme I'm using confirms the same thing.

[afleitch]

Let the calls for my resignation begin!

No. Not at all.

It's the first shot, trying to stay within the rules of the PR bill and using a complicated system. Because the number of voters is so small in comparison to other STV elections one vote either way can have a cascade effect. I think an amendment to the PR bill should be on the floor as soon as possible to determine what calculation for surplus/redistributed votes is used perhaps with adjustments to the voting system itself if need be.