For each state, which cong. district would you be most likely to get elected in?
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  For each state, which cong. district would you be most likely to get elected in?
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Author Topic: For each state, which cong. district would you be most likely to get elected in?  (Read 1064 times)
nclib
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« on: April 18, 2008, 03:46:07 PM »

Take into account primary and general elections, assuming all seats are open. For states where all CD's are unrealistic, choose whichever you'd come closest.

Alabama - AL7
Arizona - AZ8
Arkansas - AR2
California - CA8
Colorado - CO1
Connecticut - CT3
Florida - FL20
Georgia - GA5
Hawaii - HI2
Idaho - ID1
Illinois - IL9
Indiana - IN7
Iowa - IA2
Kansas - KS3
Kentucky - KY3
Louisiana - LA2
Maine - ME1
Maryland - MD8
Massachusetts - MA8
Michigan - MI15
Minnesota - MN5
Mississippi- MS2
Missouri - MO1
Nebraska - NE2
Nevada - NV1
New Hampshire - NH2
New Jersey - NJ9
New Mexico - NM1
New York - NY14
North Carolina - NC4
Ohio - OH10
Oklahoma - OK2
Oregon - OR3
Pennsylvania - PA1
Rhode Island - RI1
South Carolina - SC5
Tennessee - TN5
Texas - TX25
Utah - UT2
Virginia - VA8
Washington - WA7
West Virginia- WV3
Wisconsin - WI2
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Hashemite
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« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2008, 05:23:02 AM »

bump. I like this thread. I'll do it soon.
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DownWithTheLeft
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« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2008, 08:54:26 AM »

I do not know about a ton of other states, but I've always planned on moving to NJ-5 territory if I wanted to run
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Willy Woz
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« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2008, 09:21:16 AM »

Alabama - AL-4
Arizona - AZ-2
Arkansas - AR-1
California - CA-22
Colorado - CO-5
Connecticut - CT-1
Florida - FL-1
Georgia - GA-9
Hawaii - HI-2
Illinois - IL-19
Indiana - IN-9
Iowa - IA-5
Kansas - KS-1
Kentucky - KY-5
Louisiana - LA-7
Maine - ME-2
Maryland - MD-6
Massachusetts - MA-10
Michigan - MI-1
Minnesota - MN-7
Mississippi - MS-1
Missouri - MO-8
Nebraska - NE-3
Nevada - NV-2
New Hampshire - NH-2
New Jersey - NJ-5
New Mexico - NM-2
New York - NY-24
North Carolina - NC-5
Ohio - OH-6
Oklahoma - OK-2
Oregon - OR-2
Pennsylvania - PA-11
Rhode Island - RI-2
South Carolina - SC-3
Tennessee - TN-4
Texas - TX-4
Utah - UT-3
Virginia - VA-9
Washington - WA-5
West Virginia - WV-3
Wisconsin - WI-7

I would generally win the rural and lower-middle class areas full of bitter white people who cling to guns and religion.


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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2008, 10:12:10 AM »
« Edited: April 19, 2008, 10:13:58 AM by EarlAW »

I'm going to answer using Canadian provinces, since it will take a shorter time.

BC: Vancouver East
AB: Edmonton-Strathcona
SK: Regina-Qu'Appelle
MB: Elmwood-Transcona
ON: Timmins-James Bay
QC: Outremont (if I spoke French, if not then Pontiac)
NB: Acadie-Bathurst (if I spoke French, if not then Saint John)
PE: Charlottetown
NS: Halifax
NL: St. John's East
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #5 on: April 19, 2008, 01:53:11 PM »

Some I'd have no.. shot.. period, but I'll give a few a stab

PA: 13.  1 and 2 I'd lose a primary
NJ: 1 or 9
MD: 2 or 8.  Center-left districts I'd likely win a primary and general.  Others are either too conservative in the general or too liberal (or black influenced) in primary
NY: 14
VA: 8
CT: 3
RI : 1
MA: 3
NH: Not sure
WV: 2
OH: 9 or 13.  See MD anaylsis.
IN: 7
IL: 9
NC: 4
SC: Ouch this one is tough.  See MD analysis, but there really is no libertarian-liberal district with a white majority. I'd probably be screwed.
FL: 20
GA: See SC.

More later 
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #6 on: April 19, 2008, 08:36:12 PM »

Some I'd have no.. shot.. period, but I'll give a few a stab

PA: 13.  1 and 2 I'd lose a primary

You'd win Mike Doyle's district before you'd win in PA 13.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #7 on: April 19, 2008, 09:48:05 PM »

Alabama 7
Arizona 4
Arkansas 2
California 38
Colorado 1
Connecticut 1
Florida 23
Georgia 8
Hawaii 2
Idaho 2
Illinois 5
Indiana 9
Iowa 5
Kansas 3
Kentucky 3
Louisiana 2
Maine 2
Maryland 3
Massachusetts 3
Michigan 15
Minnesota 4
Mississippi 2
Missouri 1
Nebraska 3
Nevada 1
New Hampshire 2
New Jersey 10
New Mexico 3
New York 9
North Carolina 4
Ohio 10
Oklahoma 2
Oregon 3
Pennsylvania 1
Rhode Island 1
South Carolina 5
Tennessee 9
Texas 16
Utah 3
Virginia 8
Washington 5
West Virginia 1
Wisconsin 4
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
htmldon
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« Reply #8 on: April 19, 2008, 10:56:35 PM »

Alabama 1
Arizona 8
Arkansas 3
California 46
Colorado 7
Connecticut 2
Florida 15
Georgia 11
Hawaii 1
Idaho 1
Illinois 8
Indiana 2
Iowa 2
Kansas 2
Kentucky 3
Louisiana 1
Maine 2
Maryland 1
Massachusetts 6
Michigan 6
Minnesota 1
Mississippi 1
Missouri 8
Nebraska 2
Nevada 2
New Hampshire 1
New Jersey 11
New Mexico 1
New York 13
North Carolina 9
Ohio 16
Oklahoma 5
Oregon 5
Pennsylvania 8
Rhode Island 2
South Carolina 1
Tennessee 2
Texas 14.. I mean hey, they'll elect anybody...
Utah 2
Virginia 11
Washington 8
West Virginia 2
Wisconsin 5
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #9 on: April 19, 2008, 11:04:18 PM »


As partisan as you are? No especially not these days. You would have to run in PA 5, 16 or 19.
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Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: April 19, 2008, 11:12:32 PM »


As partisan as you are? No especially not these days. You would have to run in PA 5, 16 or 19.

I gotta have a district where I can dispense with a Club for Growth backed primary challenge though Smiley
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #11 on: April 19, 2008, 11:21:41 PM »


As partisan as you are? No especially not these days. You would have to run in PA 5, 16 or 19.

I gotta have a district where I can dispense with a Club for Growth backed primary challenge though Smiley

Actually, economically, the Club for Growth would connect well with the GOP establishment in PA 8 so you wouldn't have it as easy as you think.  Wink
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TeePee4Prez
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« Reply #12 on: April 20, 2008, 01:54:34 AM »

Some I'd have no.. shot.. period, but I'll give a few a stab

PA: 13.  1 and 2 I'd lose a primary

You'd win Mike Doyle's district before you'd win in PA 13.

Isn't Doyle's district more populist?  14th was up there for me, but I went 13th considering I'm more of a libertarian leaning liberal rather than populist.  AS for the 1st and 2nd, yeah I'd get better general numbers than the 13th, but you know as well as I, I'd get slaughtered in a primary.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #13 on: April 20, 2008, 10:44:32 AM »

Some I'd have no.. shot.. period, but I'll give a few a stab

PA: 13.  1 and 2 I'd lose a primary

You'd win Mike Doyle's district before you'd win in PA 13.

Isn't Doyle's district more populist?  14th was up there for me, but I went 13th considering I'm more of a libertarian leaning liberal rather than populist.  AS for the 1st and 2nd, yeah I'd get better general numbers than the 13th, but you know as well as I, I'd get slaughtered in a primary.

Well, his district is Pittsburgh but it's much more partisan Dem than the 13th and it has it's socially liberal areas.
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