RM Poll: Bush +5 in Maricopa County, AZ

[Posterity]

A Rocky Mountain Poll released today shows Bush with a 46-41% lead over Kerry in Maricopa County, AZ with a MOE of +/- 4.7%.  Maricopa County accounts for 60% of the state's voters and is predominately Republican.  The survey was conducted Aug. 13-17 among 452 voters.  I assume that's registered voters since in the text it says Bush is +11 among likely voters.

Link to the poll:
http://www.brcpolls.com/04/RMP2004-III-11.pdf

Link to a brief article printed in today's paper:
http://www.azcentral.com/news/election/president/articles/0824poll24.html

[The Vorlon]

A Rocky Mountain Poll released today shows Bush with a 46-41% lead over Kerry in Maricopa County, AZ with a MOE of +/- 4.7%.  Maricopa County accounts for 60% of the state's voters and is predominately Republican.  The survey was conducted Aug. 13-17 among 452 voters.  I assume that's registered voters since in the text it says Bush is +11 among likely voters.

Link to the poll:
http://www.brcpolls.com/04/RMP2004-III-11.pdf

Link to a brief article printed in today's paper:
http://www.azcentral.com/news/election/president/articles/0824poll24.html

For the tiny bit it is worth...

Bush carried Maricopa country by 10.37% in 2000

[Floridude]

Hmm...lets see, +5 registered, + 11 likely, maybe +8 to +10 if there was actually a vote.  It seems like Kerry may have gained a point or two, but nothing to write home about.  

[Bogart]

No major propositions on the ballot...no gubernatorial election...no chance Kerry will win.

[Giant Saguaro]

Nah, somebody would either have to be up to some tricks or else GOP apathy would have to exceedingly high. The likely voter number looks about right to me.

[Posterity]

No major propositions on the ballot...no gubernatorial election...no chance Kerry will win.

The controversial Proposition 200 ("Protect Arizona Now") will be on the ballot and that may bring out voters (unless it's ruled that the votes won't be counted).

If Maricopa county is close enough, the state could be tipped by the Democrat-leaning Pima county (Tucson).  I agree it's not likely, but I think it's possible.

[CARLHAYDEN]

The BRC poll is utter nonsense on its face.

First, the allegation that Kerry supporters are 'firmer' in their support of their candidate that are Bush supporters is contradicted by every poll with which I am familiar.

Second, the allegation that 25% of the voters are undecided is just preposterous.  While I think most polls push respondents too hard to pick a candidate, 25% is way too high.

Finally, DeBerge is a knee-jerk liberal.

[Bogart]

No major propositions on the ballot...no gubernatorial election...no chance Kerry will win.

The controversial Proposition 200 ("Protect Arizona Now") will be on the ballot and that may bring out voters (unless it's ruled that the votes won't be counted).

If Maricopa county is close enough, the state could be tipped by the Democrat-leaning Pima county (Tucson).  I agree it's not likely, but I think it's possible.

True, but this prop hasn't gotten nearly the press that the Indian gaming ones did last time. I credit these to putting Napolitano in office.