If McCain loses the election...

[Person Man]

I frankly thing a re-alignment is coming, but I don't thinks it is here yet.

A McCain win might move GOP to the left a bit.  The country will drift slightly to the left; the religious right, so called, will fade.

An Obama win will probably drag the GOP to the right.  I can see a poor performance by Obama taking the country to the right (think 1980 in combination with 1994). 

This election sets up the re-alignment, like 1976 or 1928.

I would like to think that is the case. The time following this election could mean the marginalization of the right or the final deathblow to the left.

[Person Man]

They did. Next. They're pretty fu cked, too. The only realy issue that is still strong for them is Gays and Taxes...and even they are pretty weak. The entire right-to-life thing was vaporized throughout the country last election. People want to shoot themselves when people talk about "free markets" or "spreading freedom". Then again, guns could be a big issue for the Republicans. It really is retarded for us Democrats to think we can continue to win with gun control...even though at this point it seems inconceivable that we could lose without casting the entire 2-party system into doubt.

Appeal to Blacks , Latinos and others instead of Joe the plumbers and Todd Palins of the world

This is the exact type of race-based politics that conservatives will NEVER partake in.  It's one of the things that makes me proud to be a conservative.  If McCain loses, it's precisely because he didn't get enough "Joe the Plumbers" to vote for him. 

Bush got 45% of the Latino vote and 12% of the black vote back in 2000.. they were on the right track then.  It somehow got lost in 2004 iam guessing with calling everybody anti American stuff which stems from the far right hopping on the 9/11 wagon. Since it won them victory in 2004 they figured it was the way to go.   

Dismiss my point of view on this if you please, but if the Mexican vote and black vote overwhelm McCain this election that will be the sign that I was right.

You can't win elections losing a vote 99%- 1%

What do you mean by "calling everybody anti-American stuff?"  Michelle Bachmann said that stuff 2 weeks ago and will likely lose her seat for it. 

George W. Bush appointed two black Secretaries of State and a Hispanic AG.  The RNC was recently headed by Mel Martinez, and Michael Steele is chairman of GOPAC.  What else should they do?

The Republicans are losing because people are identifying them with the current financial crisis (undeservedly so, IMO) and the deficit (deservedly so).  Get back to real supply-side fiscal policy and tell the social conservatives to step the hell back for a minute.  It's not rocket science. 

Good luck with that. supply-side economics can't really work because we don't have as many resources or communication lines or products to develop supplies. Getting away from the nationalists won't work because your party's base is 70% RR. 

[Person Man]

Good luck with that. supply-side economics can't really work because we don't have as many resources or communication lines or products to develop supplies.

Can you elaborate on this?  Maybe I'm stupid.   

Getting away from the nationalists won't work because your party's base is 70% RR. 

Again, I'm not sure I understand this.  By "nationalists" do you mean immigration-hawks?  Nat'l security-hawks? 

And what is "RR"?

You know Religious Right... Nationalists would be immigration-hawks/RR collectively.


We can't do supply side economics anymore because we don't have enough resources or transportation ability...let alone something that we have a competitive advantage supplying. We need to find new resources, rebuild and drastically expand our infrastructure and find new industries.

[Person Man]

You know Religious Right... Nationalists would be immigration-hawks/RR collectively.

Okay, maybe I'm just having trouble with your terminology.  You said, "Getting away from the nationalists won't work because your party's base is 70% RR."  I never implied that the GOP should move away from immigration-hawks.  In fact, I believe just the opposite.  A majority of the country desires comprehensive immigration reform.  And I have to dispute your claim that 70% of the party is "religious right".  I could be wrong, but I don't believe that 70% of Republicans base their vote on social issues.  I mean, we did just nominate the anti-"Religious Right" candidate.       

We can't do supply side economics anymore because we don't have enough resources or transportation ability...let alone something that we have a competitive advantage supplying. We need to find new resources, rebuild and drastically expand our infrastructure and find new industries.

I'm talking about low taxes, low regulation, low spending, free-trade.  What does this have to do with "supply" in the literal sense of the word?

How can you help somebody sell something if they have nothing to sell, let alone any consumers? That's why we have periods of economic consolidation, like the one that Obama is going to put us through right now.

If you look at the demographic numbers...things stack up quite well for my argument...

22 percent of Anabaptists voted for McCain.... 17 percent of the vote.... (this is in line with trends that state that 17% of Americans call themselves members of the Religious Right)

45 percent of the Catholics voted for McCain...since Catholics are kinda down-scale, most of them voted on social issues....and since 25 percent of voters are Catholic and I am guess 60 percent of McCain voters in this demographic voted against abortion than anything else, I am guessing this is about 7 percent of voters came from this.

That's 24 percent. You are also forgeting neo-arians (JWs, Mormons et al.). They voted for McCain at a rate of 80 percent. They are about 6 percent of the voting population. I am  guessing that 60 percent them voted against social constitutionalism. Therefore, I would say that this is about 3 percent of the vote.

That's 27 percent of the vote. The election was 53-46 Obama. Roughly 10 percent were undecided going into the end campaign. Let's say that McCain slightly won the undecideds....say 60-40. That would mean that Obama's base was 49% and McCain's was 40%.  27 out of 40 is about 68% of the Republican base. Not quite 70%...but it is still pretty monolithic.

27/40= 68% of the GOP base

This may or may not be right...and I am shooting from the hip a bit with these estimates...and relying on demographic stereotypes...which was actually a pretty good predictor of this election, if you use Nate Silver as an example. However, maybe we can all get some clarity on this issue if you can make a better, more nuanced model. I doubt you will, though.