NJ-07 GOP sparring heats up
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  NJ-07 GOP sparring heats up
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Author Topic: NJ-07 GOP sparring heats up  (Read 4334 times)
Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #25 on: July 16, 2008, 01:07:26 PM »

Lance does maintain a seven point lead, however, according to his own internal polling: 42% to 35%.  I'd expect the NRCC to back Lance up with cash should he need it—it's a seat the GOP should be able to hold if they don't get outspent by more than, say, 4 : 3.

This is true, but it's one of the worst seats in the country for either party committee in terms of bang for the buck. That's one reason Stender got little help last year.

Though alleviated somewhat by the underlying Republican nature of the district and the "natural" GOP advantage here.  Lance should win, provided he doesn't make any major mistakes and stays competitive in the money game.  Strategically, the GOP can't afford to not play here.

PolitickerNJ has also been talking about the possibility of Saxton and Ferguson propping up their would-be replacements with their existing warchests, which would be a much-welcomed boost to both.
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MarkWarner08
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« Reply #26 on: July 16, 2008, 01:18:56 PM »

Lance does maintain a seven point lead, however, according to his own internal polling: 42% to 35%.  I'd expect the NRCC to back Lance up with cash should he need it—it's a seat the GOP should be able to hold if they don't get outspent by more than, say, 4 : 3.

This is true, but it's one of the worst seats in the country for either party committee in terms of bang for the buck. That's one reason Stender got little help last year.

Though alleviated somewhat by the underlying Republican nature of the district and the "natural" GOP advantage here.  Lance should win, provided he doesn't make any major mistakes and stays competitive in the money game.  Strategically, the GOP can't afford to not play here.

PolitickerNJ has also been talking about the possibility of Saxton and Ferguson propping up their would-be replacements with their existing warchests, which would be a much-welcomed boost to both.
Didn't they say the same thing about the Torch's warchest? IIRC, he didn't transfer a penny to help Lautenberg. Of course, in NJ, personal animus often outweighs helping one's party.
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Small Business Owner of Any Repute
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« Reply #27 on: July 16, 2008, 02:49:48 PM »

Lance does maintain a seven point lead, however, according to his own internal polling: 42% to 35%.  I'd expect the NRCC to back Lance up with cash should he need it—it's a seat the GOP should be able to hold if they don't get outspent by more than, say, 4 : 3.

This is true, but it's one of the worst seats in the country for either party committee in terms of bang for the buck. That's one reason Stender got little help last year.

Though alleviated somewhat by the underlying Republican nature of the district and the "natural" GOP advantage here.  Lance should win, provided he doesn't make any major mistakes and stays competitive in the money game.  Strategically, the GOP can't afford to not play here.

PolitickerNJ has also been talking about the possibility of Saxton and Ferguson propping up their would-be replacements with their existing warchests, which would be a much-welcomed boost to both.
Didn't they say the same thing about the Torch's warchest? IIRC, he didn't transfer a penny to help Lautenberg. Of course, in NJ, personal animus often outweighs helping one's party.

Yes, but Torricelli is a prick.  Saxton has already given $25k to county committees, and unlike the Torricelli/Lautenberg dynamic, Saxton actually likes Myers.
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Conan
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« Reply #28 on: July 16, 2008, 03:14:52 PM »

Lance does maintain a seven point lead, however, according to his own internal polling: 42% to 35%.  I'd expect the NRCC to back Lance up with cash should he need it—it's a seat the GOP should be able to hold if they don't get outspent by more than, say, 4 : 3.

This is true, but it's one of the worst seats in the country for either party committee in terms of bang for the buck. That's one reason Stender got little help last year.

Though alleviated somewhat by the underlying Republican nature of the district and the "natural" GOP advantage here.  Lance should win, provided he doesn't make any major mistakes and stays competitive in the money game.  Strategically, the GOP can't afford to not play here.

PolitickerNJ has also been talking about the possibility of Saxton and Ferguson propping up their would-be replacements with their existing warchests, which would be a much-welcomed boost to both.
Didn't they say the same thing about the Torch's warchest? IIRC, he didn't transfer a penny to help Lautenberg. Of course, in NJ, personal animus often outweighs helping one's party.

Yes, but Torricelli is a prick.  Saxton has already given $25k to county committees, and unlike the Torricelli/Lautenberg dynamic, Saxton actually likes Myers.
If I recall correctly, Torricelli, now a lobbyist, likes to use that money to further enhance his lobbying....He has more than 2,000,000.

Saxton has over 1,000,000
Ferguson only has a little over 200k left.

Stender currently has 15x the amount Lance has. I personally don't believe he will be a good enough fundraiser, as he hasn't shown it yet. The NRCC doesn't have any money....there are, in my opinion, better districts to spend their money in, ones with incumbents or more republican ones. Lance must raise at least $1 million to remain on par between now and election day.

I have to disagree with your assesment that he should win, though. As we always go through this, it's about a 50/50 district, and it's an open seat. Stender has 15x the cash. Combined with the DCCC's $1.8 mill reserved, she has 37.5x his money. Money matters in such a marginal district where she came within a point of winning against a strong incumbent.
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Conan
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« Reply #29 on: July 18, 2008, 10:02:06 PM »

Lance does maintain a seven point lead, however, according to his own internal polling: 42% to 35%.  I'd expect the NRCC to back Lance up with cash should he need it—it's a seat the GOP should be able to hold if they don't get outspent by more than, say, 4 : 3.

This is true, but it's one of the worst seats in the country for either party committee in terms of bang for the buck. That's one reason Stender got little help last year.

Though alleviated somewhat by the underlying Republican nature of the district and the "natural" GOP advantage here.  Lance should win, provided he doesn't make any major mistakes and stays competitive in the money game.  Strategically, the GOP can't afford to not play here.

PolitickerNJ has also been talking about the possibility of Saxton and Ferguson propping up their would-be replacements with their existing warchests, which would be a much-welcomed boost to both.
Didn't they say the same thing about the Torch's warchest? IIRC, he didn't transfer a penny to help Lautenberg. Of course, in NJ, personal animus often outweighs helping one's party.

Yes, but Torricelli is a prick.  Saxton has already given $25k to county committees, and unlike the Torricelli/Lautenberg dynamic, Saxton actually likes Myers.
If I recall correctly, Torricelli, now a lobbyist, likes to use that money to further enhance his lobbying....He has more than 2,000,000.

Saxton has over 1,000,000
Ferguson only has a little over 200k left.

Stender currently has 15x the amount Lance has. I personally don't believe he will be a good enough fundraiser, as he hasn't shown it yet. The NRCC doesn't have any money....there are, in my opinion, better districts to spend their money in, ones with incumbents or more republican ones. Lance must raise at least $1 million to remain on par between now and election day.

I have to disagree with your assesment that he should win, though. As we always go through this, it's about a 50/50 district, and it's an open seat. Stender has 15x the cash. Combined with the DCCC's $1.8 mill reserved, she has 37.5x his money. Money matters in such a marginal district where she came within a point of winning against a strong incumbent.
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