Pennsylvania Primary Prediction Thread

[CultureKing]

Hmm... I am going to be optimistic:
Clinton: 51.1%
Obama: 47.6%
Other: 1.3%

[J. J.]

Clinton 55.5
Obama 44.5



CD 1  -1 Clinton
CD 2  -5 Clinton
CD 3  +1 Clinton
CD 4  +1 Clinton
CD 5  0
CD 6  0
CD 7  +1 Clinton
CD 8  +1 Clinton
CD 9  +1 Clinton
CD10  +2 Clinton
CD11   +3 Clinton
CD 12  +3 Clinton
CD 13  -1 Clinton
CD 14  +1 Clinton
CD 15   +1 Clinton
CD 16   0
CD 17   0
CD 18   +3 Clinton
CD 19  +2 Clinton

Clinton net +13 CD (if I did the math right).

State wide:

Clinton 32, Obama 23

Net gain for Clinton +9

Net Clinton: +22

There is an outside chance that Hillary could take PA-1 (+1) and only have a net -3 in PA-2.

[Sam Spade]

CD 18 is only 5 delegates, so it can't be Clinton +4.  Otherwise, your prediction is not ridiculous at all - though we may have disagreements

[J. J.]

CD 18 is only 5 delegates, so it can't be Clinton +4.  Otherwise, your prediction is not ridiculous at all - though we may have disagreements

Corrected!

Basically, she breaks 20, but probably doesn't break 25.  If she does break 25, Obama is in trouble and he needs an out and out win on May 8.

[Erc]

54 - 45.  A solid, 9 point win.  Larger than what some of the recent polls were predicting, but not a blowout either.  The campaign goes on to IN/NC.

No delegate predictions, as I wisely remain agnostic about local PA politics and leave that to our team of experts.

[Smash255]

Clinton 55.5
Obama 44.5



CD 1  -1 Clinton
CD 2  -5 Clinton
CD 3  +1 Clinton
CD 4  +1 Clinton
CD 5  0
CD 6  0
CD 7  +1 Clinton
CD 8  +1 Clinton
CD 9  +1 Clinton
CD10  +2 Clinton
CD11   +3 Clinton
CD 12  +3 Clinton
CD 13  -1 Clinton
CD 14  +1 Clinton
CD 15   +1 Clinton
CD 16   0
CD 17   0
CD 18   +3 Clinton
CD 19  +2 Clinton

Clinton net +13 CD (if I did the math right).

State wide:

Clinton 32, Obama 23

Net gain for Clinton +9

Net Clinton: +22

There is an outside chance that Hillary could take PA-1 (+1) and only have a net -3 in PA-2.

How exactly is there an outside chance of Clinton winning PA 1 and only losing 6-3 in PA2.  PA1 is 46%African American, PA-2 is 61% African American, and some republicans do exist in those districts (vast majority of those are white) so the African American vote in both districts are going to be higher than that.

[J. J.]

Clinton 55.5
Obama 44.5



CD 1  -1 Clinton
CD 2  -5 Clinton
CD 3  +1 Clinton
CD 4  +1 Clinton
CD 5  0
CD 6  0
CD 7  +1 Clinton
CD 8  +1 Clinton
CD 9  +1 Clinton
CD10  +2 Clinton
CD11   +3 Clinton
CD 12  +3 Clinton
CD 13  -1 Clinton
CD 14  +1 Clinton
CD 15   +1 Clinton
CD 16   0
CD 17   0
CD 18   +3 Clinton
CD 19  +2 Clinton

Clinton net +13 CD (if I did the math right).

State wide:

Clinton 32, Obama 23

Net gain for Clinton +9

Net Clinton: +22

There is an outside chance that Hillary could take PA-1 (+1) and only have a net -3 in PA-2.

How exactly is there an outside chance of Clinton winning PA 1 and only losing 6-3 in PA2.  PA1 is 46%African American, PA-2 is 61% African American, and some republicans do exist in those districts (vast majority of those are white) so the African American vote in both districts are going to be higher than that.

Because PA one also has a large working class and Latino population (about half of PA's Latino  population lives there).

Another factor might be African American women.  There is a lot of affection for both Clintons there.

It's outside for both, though the flip is a bit more likely in PA-1.  There is a very slight chance that PA-2 will be the only CD that Obama carries.

[Keystone Phil]

Hillary - 56%
Obama - 44%

[Keystone Phil]

PA-10 Congressional:
Meuser +18

Really? That would be amazing but I thought it was a close race up there.

[Sam Spade]

I'll go with Phil here.  Why not...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Let's go with Clinton 50 Obama 49 and that it won't be called until Wednesday morning.

[Tender Branson]

So, with the last poll out I can make my final prediction:

Turnout: 2.068.000 in the Democratic Primary

Hillary Clinton - 55.52% - 1.148.000 votes
Barack Obama - 43.31% - 896.000 votes
Others - 1.17% - 24.000 votes

Delegates: Clinton - 86, Obama - 72

[Meeker]

Clinton: 52%
Obama: 47%
Uncommitted: 1%

Turnout: 2.5 million

[12th Doctor]

Clinton - 57%
Obama - 42%
Scattered - 1%

[SomeLawStudent]

I think it could go one of two ways.

Women don't turn out in record numbers: Hillary +8.

Women do turn out in record numbers (which I kind of suspect will happen): Hillary +12.

[Sarnstrom]

Clinton 53%
Obama 46%
Other 1%

[True Democrat]

I'll take an optimistic stab:

Clinton: 55%
Obama: 44%
Uncommitted: 1%

[elcorazon]

Clinton 54.4
Obama 44.9

Clinton takes about 10 delegates.

[MasterJedi]

Hillary wins it by more than expected (like Ohio).

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Hillary wins 55-44 if her underpolling trend continues. I think his ceiling is 44% as he hasn't crossed that threshold in any poll.

[elcorazon]

Hillary wins 55-44 if her underpolling trend continues. I think his ceiling is 44% as he hasn't crossed that threshold in any poll.

Obama: 49 (+4)
Clinton: 46 (+4)

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_042108.pdf

I hope they're as accurate as they've been. But I doubt it.

Edit: Fixed link.

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Muhlenberg College on 2008-04-17

Summary:

Clinton:	47%
Obama:	46%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Alcon]

I'm going to go with Clinton +11.  My suspicion says it may run a little higher, but that's just intuition.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Depends on a handful of variables that we don't know yet.

Like?  Whether the Phillies win the day beforehand? 

Alright, I'm going to put my cards out on the table.  What say you, Realpolitik?

It's as good of a comment here as in the other thread, so...

I don't really care about the quality of the poll, fwiw, if it has any.

The point I will continue to make is this:  There have always been in my mind two results:
1) The "race is over" result, where Clinton wins by 6-8 points, where the working-class Catholics in the Philly area decide that the race is over and split.
2) The "race continues as it did before" result, where Clinton wins by 12%-15%, and the working-class Catholics in Philly do their thing.

Now, with SUSA having her lead down to 6 points, my tendency would be leaning towards the former result, rather than the latter, whereas last night, I would be leaning more towards the latter, rather than the former.

The key point is the SE PA subsample - before SUSA had that as tied.  Now they match the other polls which show Obama +15 there.  That's your gap.

Of course, this doesn't mean we won't split the difference and see an 8%-12% margin.  Quite possible, actually.  And SUSA could be wrong here, who knows...

Of course, now Drudge says that Clinton "internals" show her up 11 points.  Caveat emptor.

Will saying "I don't gamble" do as an answer?

But basically I think the key questions are:

1. what is the actual power of the machine in Philadelphia in this sort of election? (related questions about whether endorsements mean anything; though so far the answer has of course normally been either "no" or "not a lot")
2. how strongly the new voters break for Obama (sure, this is only around the margins, but I think that little things like that will matter in how the race is seen).
3. the same point that you made above about working class Catholics in the Philly area... but, I think, writ large across the whole state. And about turnout as much as voting for the other candidate in a desire to end it all.

That kind of thing in general.

I also look forward to seeing what the gap in exit poll v actual result is. Haha.

[J. J.]

Clinton 55.5
Obama 44.5



CD 1  -1 Clinton
CD 2  -5 Clinton
CD 3  +1 Clinton
CD 4  +1 Clinton
CD 5  0
CD 6  0
CD 7  +1 Clinton
CD 8  +1 Clinton
CD 9  +1 Clinton
CD10  +2 Clinton
CD11   +3 Clinton
CD 12  +3 Clinton
CD 13  -1 Clinton
CD 14  +1 Clinton
CD 15   +1 Clinton
CD 16   0
CD 17   0
CD 18   +3 Clinton
CD 19  +2 Clinton

Clinton net +13 CD (if I did the math right).

State wide:

Clinton 32, Obama 23

Net gain for Clinton +9

Net Clinton: +22

There is an outside chance that Hillary could take PA-1 (+1) and only have a net -3 in PA-2.

How exactly is there an outside chance of Clinton winning PA 1 and only losing 6-3 in PA2.  PA1 is 46%African American, PA-2 is 61% African American, and some republicans do exist in those districts (vast majority of those are white) so the African American vote in both districts are going to be higher than that.

In addition, Obama voters may not realize that they have to vote for delegates separately, especially new voters.

Also, African American turnout might be lower while white turnout is higher.  I don't know about the last, but I do the first seems to be the case. 

[Person Man]

Obama 46
Clinton 53