Most likely chamber to flip?

[Brittain33]

Which legislative chamber is most likely to flip in 08?

Here's a link to a map of current composition:

http://www.ncsl.org/statevote/StateVote2008.htm

My list:
NY Senate (R->D)
• I still think this year is the year, based on what happened in '04 and the win in the North County when Spitzer was deeply unpopular but not yet scandalized. Too many targets, too many low-information voters for Republicans to hold out.

Nevada Senate (R->D)
• Prediction made out of complete ignorance of candidates and opportunities, only that they've been drifting toward the Dems out of a long-term N.Y.-style arrangement, Dems only need one seat, and the economy is in a real estate bust that has got to have people feeling insecure about neighborhoods and schools.

Indiana House (D->R)
• '06 was a great year to be a Democrat in Indiana, and Mitch Daniels appears to have stopped the bleeding. I would imagine Presidential voting habits are enough to enable a net gain of one or two seats in the House.

Oklahoma Senate (split->R)
• NCSL says it was split; I don't know if that's the case, but again, the recovery from '06 to '08 and presidential voting is going to favor Republicans over Democrats.

Alaska Senate (R->D)
• Quite close already and the state Republican Party is having meltdown from top to bottom over corruption while Democrats will have the first full slate of strong federal candidates in my memory. No, this does not mean I think Obama will do well here.

If people are well-informed about micro issues (candidates, term limits, etc.) that would drive changes, I'd love to hear about it.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Don't forget Tennessee House (D -> R) 
(Hey, one can dream!)

Tennessee Senate (split -> R) is very likely.

[Brittain33]

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What is the situation there? I thought that had already happened, or was it just for organizational purposes?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

The Pennsylvania House also seems like it could quite possibly tip back to Republicans, especially if McCain carries the state.

[Verily]

Alaska's Senate is weird. It's currently led by a coalition of all Democrats and some Republicans against the rest of the Republicans. I don't see the Democrats taking outright control simply because they're allied with many of the Republicans, but you could see the Democrats become even stronger partners in the coalition arrangement.

Right now it's:

Coalition: 15 (9 Democrats, 6 Republicans)
Anti-Coalition Republicans: 5

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

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What is the situation there? I thought that had already happened, or was it just for organizational purposes?

After the '04 election, the Senate was 17R-16D but Mike Williams (R) voted to keep John Wilder (D) as Speaker.  In early 2006, Don McLeary switched to the GOP, making the Senate 18R-15D.  McLeary lost re-election in '06, but Rosalind Kurita (D) voted for the Ron Ramsey (R) for Speaker.  After Kurita's vote ensured Ramsey's election, Williams voted for Ramsey -- but he then switched to "Independent NASCAR fan", causing the Senate's current makeup to be 16R-16D-1I.  Williams is running for re-election this year as an Independent, which is probably a one-way ticket to defeat.

[Verily]

Seriously? A member of the Tennessee Senate is actually registered as "Independent NASCAR Fan"?

Facepalm

[Mr.Phips]

New York Senate. 

[Brittain33]

The Pennsylvania House also seems like it could quite possibly tip back to Republicans, especially if McCain carries the state.

Yeah, that's a State where anything can happen. The districts are relatively small by population and many of them vote differently at the state and federal level, and you have corruption charges coming up like whack-a-moles, and you have God only knows what local issues.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seriously? A member of the Tennessee Senate is actually registered as "Independent NASCAR Fan"?

Facepalm

^^^

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Seriously? A member of the Tennessee Senate is actually registered as "Independent NASCAR Fan"?

Facepalm

Yup.

[Joe Republic]

I'm astonished to see that he's single.

[Alcon]

I'm astonished to see that he's single.

And with a Studebaker in his garage too!

[Verily]

And his parents couldn't spell.

[Joe Biden 2020]

The Oklahoma Senate is indeed tied right now with the Republicans in defacto control (kinda like the US Senate tied with the Democrats in defacto control).  I give it a 50-50 shot of going either way.  Personally, I hope it tilts left just a bit, but it could go either way.

[Verily]

The Oklahoma Senate is indeed tied right now with the Republicans in defacto control (kinda like the US Senate tied with the Democrats in defacto control).  I give it a 50-50 shot of going either way.  Personally, I hope it tilts left just a bit, but it could go either way.

Aren't the Democrats in control in Oklahoma? Split Senate with a Dem Lt. Governor.

[Joe Biden 2020]

The Oklahoma Senate is indeed tied right now with the Republicans in defacto control (kinda like the US Senate tied with the Democrats in defacto control).  I give it a 50-50 shot of going either way.  Personally, I hope it tilts left just a bit, but it could go either way.

Aren't the Democrats in control in Oklahoma? Split Senate with a Dem Lt. Governor.

Actually, it looks like they're in equal control with maybe the Democrats a bit ahead with Lt Governor Jari Askins.

Here is a link to the leadership page -- http://www.oksenate.gov/Senators/leadership.htm

[Keystone Phil]

The Pennsylvania House also seems like it could quite possibly tip back to Republicans, especially if McCain carries the state.

Yep

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I'm astonished to see that he's single.

And with a Studebaker in his garage too!

LOL.  Micheal has had a political identity crisis.

Democrats in the legislature consist of rural hicks and inner-city blacks, with just a sprinkling of standard liberals from urbane centers. (Richardson and Kernell from Memphis, Tindell from Knoxville, etc.)

Republicans consist of sub/exurbanites and hillbillies.  (Not meant as a perjorative term, as hillbillies are the best Republicans)  Williams opponent, Mike Faulk, is running as a "Mountain Republican"

Williams couldn't decide whether he wanted to be a hick or a hillbilly, hence his... confusion.

[WalterMitty]

what about the texas house  r ~>d?

[Mr.Phips]

what about the texas house  r ~>d?

It will probably get closer, but I doubt Dems will actually pick it up. 

[AndrewTX]

CT General Assembly. It'll switch and become a republican strong hold, and Larry Cafero will become Speaker.

[Kevinstat]

Thanks AndrewCT, I needed that. 

Just for cuiousity, what is the current partisan ballance of the Connecticut House now?  I found out from http://www.cga.ct.gov/asp/menu/slist.asp that the Senate has 23 Democrats and 13 Republicans, but I'm too lazy to count the Ds and Rs in the House.  I thought you might know roughly (or perhaps exactly, with of course a caveat that Legislators could die, resign or switch parties at any time - well, you know what I mean) what the tally there was though.

[Nutmeg]

Just for cuiousity, what is the current partisan ballance of the Connecticut House now?

107D-44R

[socaldem]

California's legislature, of course, is going to continue to be solidly Democratic for the forseeable future...

Notably, there will be a state senate recall election on June 3, 2008 against GOP State Senator Jeff Denham for the Merced/Monterey County based SD12, a big farming area with a large Latino population.  The voter registration there tilts slightly to the Dems but voters there certainly are more conservative than most Californians. 

The voters will get to vote yes or no on the recall.  They would theroretically, then, get to choose from among replacement candidates but only former Assemblyman and Monterey County Supervisor Simon Salinas is on the ballot, so if Denham is recalled, he'd be the new state senator.

In the senate Democrats currently lead 25-15 and in the House 48-32.

Other than the SD12 recall, the only other competitive race is Santa Barbara-based SD19, featuring a contest between ex-state assemblymembers Hannah Beth-Jackson, a strident progressive who until recently headed Speak Out California and wild-eyed conservative Tony Strickland. The current state senator Tom McClintock, who has repeatedly shown a masochistic desire to be defeated by Democrats in attempts at statewide office, is carpet-bagging hundreds of miles away in the Sierras to try to succeed scandal-plagued John Doolittle in congress in CA-04.

If Democrats win both SD12 and the recall they will have enough votes to pass a budget, which, in CA's crazy system requires a 2/3 majority.  The only semi-moderate GOPer in the senate Abel Maldonado has the good fortune of running unopposed for reelection.

In the state house, Democrats also have a chance to pick up as many as three seats.  I don't really see many opportunities for the GOP there either.