Democratic pickup in MS-01
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Author Topic: Democratic pickup in MS-01  (Read 33274 times)
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jfern
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« on: April 22, 2008, 07:56:12 PM »
« edited: May 14, 2008, 02:23:05 PM by ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ »
This district went Bush by 25 points. In the jungle primary to replace Senator Wicker (R), Childers (D) leads Davis (R) 57-38 with 7%. He needs 50% to avoid a runoff.

http://www.djournal.com/pages/election2008.asp
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #1 on: April 22, 2008, 08:00:28 PM »
Wow, I think Childers is actually gonna win this. 
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #2 on: April 22, 2008, 08:04:25 PM »
Hopefully another Democratic pickup, along with Foster's win a few weeks ago.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #3 on: April 22, 2008, 08:07:51 PM »
The good thing about this district for Childers is that it is one of those historically southern Democratic districts that he would probably be able to hold onto for quite awile if he won.  Its a lot like AL-05. 
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memphis
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« Reply #4 on: April 22, 2008, 08:08:56 PM »
Way too early to know anything yet. DeSoto County is going to deliver for Davis big time.
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jfern
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« Reply #5 on: April 22, 2008, 08:12:09 PM »
It's 51-44. There's a good chance there'll be a runoff. The other votes are split between another D, another R, a Green, and an Indy, so would likely go for Childers.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #6 on: April 22, 2008, 08:12:26 PM »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on April 22, 2008, 08:07:51 PM
The good thing about this district for Childers is that it is one of those historically southern Democratic districts that he would probably be able to hold onto for quite awile if he won.  Its a lot like AL-05. 

Until DeSoto outgrows the rural areas.  This result is useless without knowing where the votes are coming from anyways.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #7 on: April 22, 2008, 08:17:24 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on April 22, 2008, 08:12:26 PM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on April 22, 2008, 08:07:51 PM
The good thing about this district for Childers is that it is one of those historically southern Democratic districts that he would probably be able to hold onto for quite awile if he won.  Its a lot like AL-05. 

Until DeSoto outgrows the rural areas.  This result is useless without knowing where the votes are coming from anyways.

That is true.  If he is around in 2012, we will likely see much of DeSoto shifted into the overwhelmingly Democratic MS-02. 
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Meeker
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« Reply #8 on: April 22, 2008, 08:18:21 PM »
Currently 53-42 with 115/462 precincts repoting.

DeSoto has 9/38 reporting and Davis is winning it with 81%
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #9 on: April 22, 2008, 08:23:11 PM »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on April 22, 2008, 08:17:24 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on April 22, 2008, 08:12:26 PM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on April 22, 2008, 08:07:51 PM
The good thing about this district for Childers is that it is one of those historically southern Democratic districts that he would probably be able to hold onto for quite awile if he won.  Its a lot like AL-05. 

Until DeSoto outgrows the rural areas.  This result is useless without knowing where the votes are coming from anyways.

That is true.  If he is around in 2012, we will likely see much of DeSoto shifted into the overwhelmingly Democratic MS-02. 

Excuse me for not knowing, but is MS going to lose a CD next time around.  Otherwise, there will be VRA problems.  If so, then that's probably ok.
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jfern
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« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2008, 08:23:46 PM »
MS just lost a district, so no.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #11 on: April 22, 2008, 08:24:43 PM »
Quote from: PPT Meeker on April 22, 2008, 08:18:21 PM
Currently 53-42 with 115/462 precincts repoting.

DeSoto has 9/38 reporting and Davis is winning it with 81%

Thanks.  Where are these numbers in specifics?
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #12 on: April 22, 2008, 08:26:01 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on April 22, 2008, 08:23:11 PM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on April 22, 2008, 08:17:24 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on April 22, 2008, 08:12:26 PM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on April 22, 2008, 08:07:51 PM
The good thing about this district for Childers is that it is one of those historically southern Democratic districts that he would probably be able to hold onto for quite awile if he won.  Its a lot like AL-05. 

Until DeSoto outgrows the rural areas.  This result is useless without knowing where the votes are coming from anyways.

That is true.  If he is around in 2012, we will likely see much of DeSoto shifted into the overwhelmingly Democratic MS-02. 

Excuse me for not knowing, but is MS going to lose a CD next time around.  Otherwise, there will be VRA problems.  If so, then that's probably ok.

MS-02 is already like 62% black and it needs to gain population.  If it took some of DeSoto it would probably still be around 53%-55% black, which would be fine under the VRA.
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Daniel Adams
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« Reply #13 on: April 22, 2008, 08:27:23 PM »
Quote from: Sam Spade on April 22, 2008, 08:24:43 PM
Quote from: PPT Meeker on April 22, 2008, 08:18:21 PM
Currently 53-42 with 115/462 precincts repoting.

DeSoto has 9/38 reporting and Davis is winning it with 81%

Thanks.  Where are these numbers in specifics?
Here are the results by county. Davis now leads Childers 50-46, with 212/462   precincts in.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #14 on: April 22, 2008, 08:31:56 PM »
Quote from: Daniel Adams on April 22, 2008, 08:27:23 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on April 22, 2008, 08:24:43 PM
Quote from: PPT Meeker on April 22, 2008, 08:18:21 PM
Currently 53-42 with 115/462 precincts repoting.

DeSoto has 9/38 reporting and Davis is winning it with 81%

Thanks.  Where are these numbers in specifics?
Here are the results by county. Davis now leads Childers 50-46, with 212/462   precincts in.

That must be DeSoto coming in heavily. 
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memphis
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« Reply #15 on: April 22, 2008, 08:32:12 PM »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on April 22, 2008, 08:26:01 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on April 22, 2008, 08:23:11 PM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on April 22, 2008, 08:17:24 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on April 22, 2008, 08:12:26 PM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on April 22, 2008, 08:07:51 PM
The good thing about this district for Childers is that it is one of those historically southern Democratic districts that he would probably be able to hold onto for quite awile if he won.  Its a lot like AL-05. 

Until DeSoto outgrows the rural areas.  This result is useless without knowing where the votes are coming from anyways.

That is true.  If he is around in 2012, we will likely see much of DeSoto shifted into the overwhelmingly Democratic MS-02. 

Excuse me for not knowing, but is MS going to lose a CD next time around.  Otherwise, there will be VRA problems.  If so, then that's probably ok.

MS-02 is already like 62% black and it needs to gain population.  If it took some of DeSoto it would probably still be around 53%-55% black, which would be fine under the VRA.
Not only that but DeSoto will be soon substantially more black. The numbers are already headed in that direction.
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Lief 🗽
Lief
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« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2008, 08:33:10 PM »
Desoto is fully in, and Davis is up to 52%.
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jfern
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« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2008, 08:34:25 PM »
Still decent odds at a runoff.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #18 on: April 22, 2008, 08:35:25 PM »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on April 22, 2008, 08:26:01 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on April 22, 2008, 08:23:11 PM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on April 22, 2008, 08:17:24 PM
Quote from: Sam Spade on April 22, 2008, 08:12:26 PM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on April 22, 2008, 08:07:51 PM
The good thing about this district for Childers is that it is one of those historically southern Democratic districts that he would probably be able to hold onto for quite awile if he won.  Its a lot like AL-05. 

Until DeSoto outgrows the rural areas.  This result is useless without knowing where the votes are coming from anyways.

That is true.  If he is around in 2012, we will likely see much of DeSoto shifted into the overwhelmingly Democratic MS-02. 

Excuse me for not knowing, but is MS going to lose a CD next time around.  Otherwise, there will be VRA problems.  If so, then that's probably ok.

MS-02 is already like 62% black and it needs to gain population.  If it took some of DeSoto it would probably still be around 53%-55% black, which would be fine under the VRA.

Thompson won't be very happy with that.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #19 on: April 22, 2008, 08:37:52 PM »
http://www.djournal.com/pages/election2008.asp

61% in and Davis is up 52%-44% now. 
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #20 on: April 22, 2008, 08:55:56 PM »
Davis is hanging on to that 51%.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #21 on: April 22, 2008, 09:00:39 PM »
This is a race with regional voting...
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Nutmeg
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« Reply #22 on: April 22, 2008, 09:05:06 PM »
49D-46C
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Nutmeg
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« Reply #23 on: April 22, 2008, 09:12:55 PM »
48 Davis - 47 Childers

Margin of 459 votes.
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Harry
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« Reply #24 on: April 22, 2008, 09:15:16 PM »
C'mon Childers, for the love of God, pull this out!
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